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Linn Energy, LLC (LINE) Message Board

ronharv 132 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2015 4:45 PM Member since: May 31, 1998
  • Reply to

    Irrational Exhuberance?

    by marionpolk2000 Apr 15, 2015 12:46 PM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 17, 2015 4:45 PM Flag

    Marion, you're asking a lot of Yahoo posters to do too much thinking. You'll notice how few posters, whether bulls or bears, cite reasons for their opinions or, in some cases, confident assertions.

  • Reply to

    Oil price outlook

    by marionpolk2000 Apr 16, 2015 2:15 PM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 17, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    Do you know how many different worldwide entities trade oil futures, including various software programs for numerous speculators? "Manipulation" suggests sinister conspiracies when all it takes are a number of traders with their own agendas. Volatility in any commodity doesn't need colluding alliances. Just the regular auction market does the trick. So, simply put, there are lots of non-hedging players who are betting on their perceptions of others' perceptions. Commodities are a sophisticated market filled with (mostly) sophisticated players making their bets. If one considers that manipulation, well, it's ongoing and, in my view, folks who feel taken for a ride shouldn't play the game.

  • Reply to

    Buying Put Options

    by ronharv Apr 13, 2015 12:24 PM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 14, 2015 10:56 AM Flag

    Didn't take long for this idea to become dubious. Right now the coat is $.75, but that seems too pricey a premium at the moment. Options are a real horse race, which is why the word "gamble" applies.

  • Reply to

    Market Edge Says LINE is a BUY

    by legalbark Apr 11, 2015 8:41 AM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 14, 2015 9:43 AM Flag

    Legal, I think that covered calls are the least risky of the options with the proviso that you feel confident about the long-term prospects of a given company and are happy to sell at the strike price. Several years ago, with lots of LINE in two IRAs and LINE in the high 30s, I made really good money selling covered calls at strikes of around 42. Must have been 5 or 6 good trades in about two years. And they were, as you say, better than day trading. But these days I don't want to hold LINE/LNCO. I regard them as too financially precarious for a hold, but that doesn't matter for quick trades.

  • Reply to

    IRAQ

    by pununzio Apr 11, 2015 10:30 PM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 14, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    Note the name-callers misspelling of. Opinions real moniker. Kind of cowardly I think

  • For those who expect, as I do, a weak Q1 earnings report, the May puts for LINE (not the less liquid LNCO) with a strike price of 12 can be had for $1.00 as I write this. That makes break-even at $11 per unit. I think that LINE can easily drop below that come April 29. So it's an interesting speculation with a reasonable shot at doubling a bettor's money. I'm gambling on this because Linn has had much unfulfilled optimism in the past and has been very quiet about Q1, considering that they were initially counting on $65 for their unhedged oil and then reduced the number to $60, which is well above what WTI has actually been. No guarantees, of course, but it's a provocative gamble.

  • Reply to

    Stupid MF article

    by marionpolk2000 Apr 2, 2015 8:12 PM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 13, 2015 11:17 AM Flag

    If you're doing short-term trading, Bihigh, you can ignore wash-sale rules if your brokerage, as mine does, (TDAmeritrade) calculates all the complex computations for you. Moreover, wash-sale calculations ultimately meaningless if youmake sure not to hold trading shares bought in one year (say, 2015) into the next (2016). That way it's as if wash sales never existed because the annual profit or loss is the same with or without wash sale calculations.

    An extra something I do is to make sure that I never take a LINE distribution (LNCO dividends are okay). I do receive a LINE K-1, but it's all zeros and I ignore it. But take a distribution and the tax horrors will descend on you like pterodactyls.

  • Reply to

    Market Edge Says LINE is a BUY

    by legalbark Apr 11, 2015 8:41 AM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 13, 2015 10:53 AM Flag

    With oil up some I'm a bit surprised that Linn hasn't moved north more. Perhaps the WTI price, though higher, is still way low for a company with Linn's needs. Anyway, I sold my short-term-trade position at 11.76 & 11.77 for another small profit, so the good luck is holding, despite my greed-driven expectation of a price a dime higher. I'm wondering when (if?) apprehension about Linn's 4/29 earnings announcement and CC spin will set in. Also wondering if LINE drops to the 11.50s today for another possible day trade. We'll see. (And I realize that only short-term traders will find a post like this possibly interesting. I know that I like to read what other like-minded traders are doing and why. Note that I don't fetter myself to what a chart says. What buyers and sellers are actually doing is more revealing, I think.)

  • Reply to

    Market Edge Says LINE is a BUY

    by legalbark Apr 11, 2015 8:41 AM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 13, 2015 9:27 AM Flag

    My guess is that a huge majority are in buy-and-hold mode, lured by the super-high distribution.

  • Reply to

    IRAQ

    by pununzio Apr 11, 2015 10:30 PM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 12, 2015 8:15 PM Flag

    IS seems to have failed, so I suggest being cautious about assuming that partial info. is accurate. The best way is to use Google news for a quick search and read the primary source to verify.

  • Reply to

    IRAQ

    by pununzio Apr 11, 2015 10:30 PM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 12, 2015 8:12 PM Flag

    You left out the following quote: "He (the officer) said that the Iraqi forces protecting the refinery regained control of the entrances and that the entire site was now under government control."

  • Reply to

    Market Edge Says LINE is a BUY

    by legalbark Apr 11, 2015 8:41 AM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 12, 2015 8:04 PM Flag

    Legal, a couple of the TDAmeritrade services also were negative around September. I was sitting on a capital gain plus 5 years of great distributions and actually considered selling. But Old Man Greed raised his head (once again) and puffed me up with false hope until I finally deflated into rationality and bailed (having switched to LNCO) in the 23s after Linn forecast a bad and unexplained Q4. They've kept mum about Q1 2015, and I don't see how it can be good. So we'll see if Market Edge rings the bell for another cigar or if I win the stogy this time. The fundamentals just seem so discouraging, and not just for Q1..

  • Reply to

    Market Edge Says LINE is a BUY

    by legalbark Apr 11, 2015 8:41 AM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 12, 2015 7:42 PM Flag

    I wrote, "At the moment I'm betting that my late Friday LINE buy at 11.63 doesn't return the profits from two earlier Friday trades." While I don't drink, this incomprehensible sentence suggests I had 6 or 7 beers too many. I *did* buy 5K at 11.63 late Friday because I think the recent momentum will carry into early Monday. There! Now I hope that Mr. Market will cooperate.

  • ronharv ronharv Apr 11, 2015 9:27 AM Flag

    No one's about to take over a company so burdened with debt.

  • ronharv ronharv Apr 11, 2015 9:26 AM Flag

    BB, these very short-term moves are typically meaningless. Unless you're a one- or two-day trader, there's no point in paying attention to them.

  • Reply to

    Market Edge Says LINE is a BUY

    by legalbark Apr 11, 2015 8:41 AM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 11, 2015 9:22 AM Flag

    That's a pretty bold call by Schwab, especially in light of the April 29 earnings announcement, which will likely be fairly dim. But that's the problem with making a chart-induced technical call. A chart doesn't trump real-world context. While things will never be really clear in the energy markets, 4/29 for Linn would seem to be a more telling date to advance a speculative call. Anyway, the past three weeks have been just great for day trading (and I'm arbitrarily including buying on a given day and selling the next along with trades that last less than an hour). At the moment I'm betting that my late Friday LINE buy at 11.63 doesn't return the profits from two earlier Friday trades. But longer term continues to scare me.

    And re resistance at 11.67, more relevant to me are two things: buyers' reactions first thing Mon. to the recent north bound momentum and how WTI pricing begins the day. (Also there's the inexplicable element of luck, which I think can be the biggest dog in the battle.)

  • Reply to

    Oil Rebound May Come Sooner Than Expected

    by oilgoesto70 Apr 4, 2015 1:07 AM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 8, 2015 2:43 PM Flag

    The IEA has no clue but you know what's up. You need to contact these over-educated economists and let them know what's really going to occur.

  • Reply to

    OIL headed to $70 for summer, LINN to $15

    by oilgoesto70 Apr 7, 2015 1:03 PM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 8, 2015 2:39 PM Flag

    Your carefully thought-out reasoning is much appreciated.

  • Reply to

    LINE/LNCO spread shrinking

    by vjpj1110 Apr 7, 2015 12:12 PM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 8, 2015 2:35 PM Flag

    Legal, should LNCO sell in the future for a premium over LINE, I doubt if it'll last more than a day or two. LNCO's discount, despite the allure of a simple 1099 over the horror of a K-1, is justified because of taxes on LinnCo in a couple of years, taxes that will mean a lower distribution for LNCO than for LINE. Moreover, the taxes will increase annually by an unknown amount. So this is an event that long-term holders will have to price in. (I'm assuming there's still a distribution in 2017 and thereafter which is another problematic issue.)

  • Reply to

    Effect of Iran agreement on Oil Prices

    by gpd8252 Apr 3, 2015 5:06 PM
    ronharv ronharv Apr 7, 2015 11:20 AM Flag

    I love how people assert their claim on knowing the unknowable.

LINE
12.92-0.040(-0.31%)Apr 17 4:00 PMEDT