Of course there's risk. They're low-level junk bonds. There are a number of high-yield bond funds which are broadly diversified and pay more than 6%. Two of the upper-level ones are VWEHX and PRHYX.
Right now you could probably pick up 3K to 5K at 1.77, the asking price. So I really don't grasp "having trouble getting shares back." But if you mean, say, 25K to 50K, well, that's another story. ATHX, after all, has been a generally illiquid stock. So buying a larger amount when volume is low could take several days
The bid/ask prices on Level II can be wildly inaccurate. A trading house is only obligated to show 100 shares if it's in the market at a given price. So 600 shares that are shown for sale could really be 14,850 shares for sale, but you just can't see them. I've often bought far more shares at the bid than were shown and have done the same thing at the ask. . . . But lots of times the 600 shares for sale are exactly that. You never know.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Plurka, Cychbull inquired about scientific evidence, and you replied with a quote about the clinical trial. Two different things, I think. Even so, McKernan's statement is carefully hedged when she states that the trial ". . . will provide important insight into MultiStem's potential. . . " That's the same as saying, "We'll see if it works." Her confidence in the study is clear, but her thoughts about MultiStem are unstated. My guess is that Pfizer is on the same speculative wavelength as buyers of ATHX, meaning it's a great bet if MultiStem works. But it's far from a sure thing. I've bought many small biotechs over the years, made lots of money on two of them, lost on most, and found huge confidence about ALL of them from the CEOs through company officers to the stockholders who regularly placed hope over objectivity.
Do note that I own close to 80K of ATHX. But I consider it a gamble with what I hope are odds in my favor. So when I declare that I consider ATHX a strong buy, I mean for those who understand the risk and are willing to take it for the potential large reward.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm now going to make an unpopular guess, Biojax. Considering how short-term the market tends to be in its outlook, and that there seem to be no near-term catalysts to move ATHX north, I think that before year's end the PPS will revisit the low 1.60's or even the mid-1.50's before scrambling higher again. I own so much that it won't trouble me to be wrong, but, if I'm right, that will be a nice trading opportunity beyond my long-term core holding. The trade worked for me just a few days ago and may well work again. But my primary interest is for ATHX to not do what I expect and simply consolidate at a higher level, but it'll take a few weeks to determine if that seems to be happening.
Do you realize that you have, in effect, stated that double-blind trials adhering to FDA protocols are not really double-blind trials adhering to FDA protocols.Your lack of logic (and knowledge about FDA trials) is sadly disheartening. You've posted probably the oddest statement about FDA trials that I've ever read.
Cychbull, I do recall reading a newspaper article about some negative reactions to stem cell treatments. But I can't cite anything, I'm afraid, so there's no context. But considering how many different allergic reactions to so many different things are demonstrable, I think that we won't really know about the safety and efficacy of MultiStem until we actually know it. Still, I take heart in believing that if there were significantly untoward reactions in the P2 trial, that would have ended it. And that hasn't occurred.
All too true, MGS. I do wonder about the naivete of some posters here who are looking at eggs and counting the chickens. As for me, I'm nervously crossing fingers and toes despite my belief that the odds are favorable. We're still dealing with odds, whatever they happen to be.
Some especially interesting guys made a great deal of moola when they independently figured out how to short the bond and real estate derivative markets beginning a year before the 2008 crash. Michael Lewis wrote a really funny tale of who the guys were, how they figured out the craziness being perpetrated, and what their lives were like when they saw the way to make millions. The title is "The Big Short." (Lewis is also the author of "Liar's Poker" and "Moneyball.") I recommend alibris dot you-know-what as a great place to buy used (often barely used) books.
WST, Dreiser wrote a trilogy of financially themed novels: "The Financier," "The Titan," and "The Stoic." Of the three I'd say that "The Financier" was the most engaging, a really entertaining read and quite modern despite its being written a century ago.
The "Enterprise Value . . . " thread has some first-rate posts by Wall Street Titan (shades of Theodore Dreiser), Biojax, and MGS 1066 (a good year for a big battle). Thanks for the quality reading.
I don't think that fair value is a standard that can be applied to a speculative biotech microcap. Accurately gauging potential and hope is pretty dicey.
Also, to refer to the market failing to recognize even the attractively strong potential of an Athersys may be dubious. Consider the universe of stocks that trade in this country alone. Thousands! So here's tiny Athersys. Obscure. At least until the company it demonstrates that it can actually achieve something noteworthy under impeccable scientific conditions. That should attract media and analyst coverage, which in turn would fuel new investor interest. Possibly a great deal of it. But at the moment the stock languishes in the shadows (along with umpteen other equities) so market awareness for ATHX is diminutive. But once some of the risk is wrung out of the company via some trial success, well, then the narrative changes.
Pray tell, Central, where is all this extra distribution money to come from? Would you have Linn borrow?
Fcfguy, you're making a broad assumption that Cooperman sold because of "gut emotions." Considering his professional status, I'd guess that he found an investment he considered superior to Linn and chose to switch horses, keeping a mere 3M LINE.
They're off our backs only when Linn announces that the inquiry has concluded with no changes needed to Linn's hedge accounting. LINE would pop smartly on that news.
I just read the transcript and it's the UK initial results for stroke that the CEO is looking for next summer and (it seems to me, anyway) about the same time for the U.S. stroke study.
Re initial IBD results he said, " . . . we look forward to Pfizer reporting initial results early next year, around the end of the first quarter." So I guess that means four months or so from now. That's not a long time as long as there aren't yet more delays. If there were a betting pool, I'd place my money on mid-April, considering how target dates regularly get moved back.
It's hard not to be pretty upbeat on the company's prospects. They're getting a bunch of fingers in a lot of pies. I own more ATHX than is prudent, and I want to buy even more. I hope I can resist the temptation.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
All the info. on ischemic stroke trials was especially evocative.
Re the IBD study, I do believe that the CEO stated that data for the Primary Outcome Measures would take 90+ days after the final enrollee begins being tested and that Pfizer would be quite speedy in assembling and assessing data results. I also thought that his expectations for an initial report were for summer, 2014. I'm happy to be corrected if anyone can quote from the CC replay.
And, Broom, here's a quote from the website with the first Primary Outcome Measure: "Incidence and severity of adverse events (at Weeks 4, 8, 12 and 16). [ Time Frame: 16 weeks ]." I don't know how you concluded that 8 weeks would do the job unless you have a different source that trumps what the study website says. I'd be happy to be shown wrong here.
Still, while delays continue, there are enough new things and possibilities opening up so that patient speculators could be smartly rewarded down the road. Nevertheless, the objective investor understands that a favorable risk/reward ratio doesn't mean that risk absents itself. Acknowledging this could reduce the severity of a painful disappointment, should there be one. While hope is a hardy comrade, it can be an untrustworthy one.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm sure you know that there'll be no responses. But it's a clever idea to open it up for listener consumption. Problem is that there's no way to determine the legitimacy of the putative patients. Could be just a sophisticated mimicking, which is easy enough to do. Hate to sound like a prig, but I'd be troubled about the ethics of doing this. (26 red thumbs on the way.)
Your regarding closed locations as a positive sign is an overly rosy interpretation, I'd say. The four(!) closed locations in the U.S. (foreign locations don't count for the FDA) aren't many. HOWEVER, there are a number of locations that are still recruiting, and it's possible (actually, I don't see why not considering that they get nicely paid to do it)) that they have already recruited an unknown number of patients who've already undergone the medical regimen (or are in the middle of it) in sufficient numbers to produce the required medical data for Primary Outcome Measures for a late Q1 announcement. I have a call into Pfizer to see if the above is a valid conjecture. In any case this should be made fairly clear by Athersys come Thursday.
Lesspheus, I'd guess that it'd take pretty good stuff happening with Linn for it to hit 37 (even if it takes well into 2014 to do it), in which case hanging in there for a more rewarding recovery makes sense.