Linn has a great deal going for it now. Plus there's a distribution announcement come April. Good time to look at the 36 strikes I think. I bought both yesterday and today at 2.13 and 2.15. Around mid-April I'm betting there's a good shot at the 39s.
Derek, you wrote, ". . . according to my empirical viewpoint on which I base my own opinion. . . ." And I don't at all mean this as a personal attack, but what you've written is the polar opposite of the nature of empirical evidence. Think of it this way: does ia conclusion meet the standards (or at least the method) of scientific investigation? Or is it simply a leap of faith based on an overgeneralization? Anyway, I won't belabor this matter further, and I'll give you the last word. If you feel a chart pattern fortells clinical success, so be it.. In any case, may you make large sums with ATHX. My 48K of ATHX would be happy to come along for the ride.
I'm afraid there aren't empirical thoughts. A technical conclusion is either based on wishful thinking (or imagination) or an objective, statistically valid study. If you can't produce the latter, then there's no validity to the conclusion. I haven't a clue about what I'm supposedly showing off. I just think that so many technical conclusions and forecasts are disconnected from any reality.
I don't think you understand "shorting against the box," Derek. You short the stock at, say 1.57, putting up the warrant as collateral. If the stock collapses, you buy back the stock at a nice profit and keep the warrants against a possible stock recovery. If the stock soars, you exercise the warrant at about a buck and deliver the stock to cover your short, making more than a half dollar per share. You've hedged your position (to whatever degree you choose) and assured yourself a profit.
There are very few shorts and probably a fair amount are hedged against the warrants. If shorts are bailing they won't be noticed.
What empirical evidence can you cite for your statement?
The chart has nothing to do with the unknown results of clinical trials. And its those results that will determine the fate of Athersys and ATHX shareholders.
The LINE board at Investor Village is virtually unused, so it should become much more active once this message board is gone. Because the boards at IV are moderated, the wackos, extremists, and the uncivil are barred, so I view the Yahoo shutdown as welcome news. Also, I find that personal attacks are rare at IV (at least on the boards that I've read), so that means fewer posts but many more that are on topic
You're being suckered, nycwest. The lawyers have a very weak case and simply want extortion money to go away. Berry may well come up with it to avoid the high expense of a court case which can be drawn out for years. Moreover, do you realize that, in effect, you're suing yourself if you're a Berry shareholder. Finally, where are the higher counteroffers from other energy companies? Just lots of silence. Doesn't that tell you something?
The dilution of about 8% does seem to be built into the stock price, but the other shoe (that may or may not be dropped) is whether the warrant holders will look for quick profits or not. If the former, the selling will place a lid on the stock price. If the latter, the PPS could edge up in anticipation of a preliminary report on the MultiStem inflammatory bowel disease trial. And should the Phase II trial come out nicely positive with statistical indications of curative effects, there'll be a nice pop in ATHX's price. But how high the pop goes is a function of where it starts from. That's why it's important that warrant holders simply continue to hold. It's much better to see good news from a base of 1.70, for instance, than 1.30, as at this stage of the game pricing can be pretty arbitrary. But keep in mind that Phase II indications are small potatoes compared to potential Phase III success. So if I held a bunch of warrants, my inclination would be to stick with them and forgo a relatively small, though easy, profit.
The loss of credibility on a Yahoo stock message board is not much of a forfeiture. Anyway, I'm simply seeking employment help from those in the know, not any hankering for credibility. Is there a secret paid bashers professional organization perhaps? I promise to keep it hush-hush.
Ronnie Boy (AKA Mr. Boy), non-basher until handsomely paid
400K short is not nearly large enough to be even termed peanuts. A minimum of about 15% of the outstanding shore would be needed shorts to approach anything of significance.
Why are virtually all bashers ostensibly paid? Isn't it possible that people who post negative comments about a stock actually don't like it? In this country is there something horrific about differing opinions? Anyway, what does a "paid basher" receive per negative post? Considering the possible prison time for both the payer and the payee, the money should be reasonably good. Say, $25 per post. Or maybe $1 per word. Anyway, considering how expert some folks are on the subject, could you be kind enough to post how I can become a paid basher and exactly how much remuneration I can expect for the risk. For a reasonable sum I'm willing to bash like mad under any number of assumed identities. Thanks in advance. Ron
That's a boatload of puts, Blue, but I do think that the odds are strongly in favor of your keeping the money. What especially attracted me to the 2015 calls was that for the Jan35s there was no difference in premium from the Jan 2014 calls. Seemed an anomaly worth taking advantage of. Anyway, should LINE really pop in the interim, there's nothing holding me back from closing the position if the price is right. And if that becomes the case with me, you'll also have that profit temptation with your puts.
Blue, I think that selling the puts at 35 almost a year out is a reasonable bet, although that's a long time to have the potential of a forced buy hanging over you. With sales of puts I get uncomfortable with anything more than, say, 6 months out. Right now I've got put sales up to my gizzard: 20 July 30s and 75 July 32s. Also, the Linn ITM 35s I mentioned offer an additional year before the strike with a decent chance for a three-bagger. I just hope that the political constituency for energy MLPs isn't compromised by too many peripherally related companies climbing on the bandwagon.
Buying some ATHX stock has nothing to do with hoping for multistem's success. You're simply buying in the secondary market. Your money isn't going to Athersys. One buys a small biotech with a hopeful eye to capital gains. So if aiding humanity via Athersys is your primary goal, send the company your money instead of purchasing the stock.
The Jan35s of 2015 look like a real speculative bargain to me. I picked up 30 a few minutes ago and the premium averaged only 1.35 for a two-year play. making break-even at below 39. While a lot can happen in that 2-year time frame, Linn, with Berry's assets, an increasing DCF, and a higher distribution wouldn't surprise if it finally settled in the low 40's . . . or better.
But why? Is there any objestive, scientific evaluation that, say, in a couple of thousand cases this has been statistically validated to be accurate, perhaps, two out of every three times? I ask because so many technical systems and promulgations (even qualified ones) have no empirical evidence behind them. In the case of ATHX I wonder how anything on a chart can be predictive of clinical success until the testing agency reveals it. Or even predictive of a surge of optimism about forthcoming clinical success. As of the moment the trading in ATHX is none too sanguine.