Are you suggesting that it can't improve UC in some and not others? The more I consider it the more I'm convinced that there could be a baffling in-between result. Still, there are lots of drugs out there that make money but barely work.
And what if it works reasonably well with 20% of UC patients? And I mean with final P2 results, not just the more limited primary outcomes. What happens if MultiStem is sort-of-okay but not the big hit that many folks expect it to be? Would results like that be considered ambiguous or something to cheer about? I sure don't know, especially in the context of the upcoming UC and stroke announcements being P2s and not P3s, the complexities (time, costs, results) of the latter, I think, being given short shrift by many of the highly optimistic.
My guess, Valuestalker, is that when the CC occurred, the year's end was the anticipated announcement target. But there have been regular delays over the past year and a half or two for both of the P2 trials. So this latest info., which originated with Medpace to then be confirmed by Athersys (not that they could disagree) is the one I'm accepting, absent a further update. And if there is another change, you can bet it won't be a sooner-than-anticipated target. I suppose this is why a typical progression through the trial obstacle course takes seven years.
And re Japan, some posters think great speed is in the offing. Based on what I've read, their regulations won't be ready until, at best, mid-fall. And then Japan will conduct their own P2 trial. Even with speed that could mean another year or 18 months before assessment. Of course, I'm guessing about the time element here.
Here's an attempt at the link to the stroke trials site: http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01436487?term=Athersys+and+ischemic+stroke&rank=1
I recall that over the past several days a poster wondered if the primary outcome results will be announced prior to the October options expiration. Per the govt. clinical trials site for the P2 study conducted by Medpace and verified last month by Athersys: "Estimated Primary Completion Date: December 2014 (Final data collection date for primary outcome measure)" Then there are several weeks of data analysis, so any announcement, I'd guess, would come out in Jan. or Feb., 2015. Options players will want to get their timing right, and all longs should certainly check the trials site for further info. and not rely on the imaginations of any uninformed posters. I'll attempt the link via a reply to this post.
Geez, Dalek, weren't you here when under the Biojax moniker he was ceaselessly touting GALE? A dubious winner.
Anyway, on another tack, I regularly read posts referring to "paid bashers" but never about what must be a far larger contingent of paid promoters, from brokerages through traders to PR outfits.
An irony is that when I made what I believed to be objective posts I was regularly regarded as negative or a shorter. (As if, with my 75K of ATHX.) But the Pumper in Chief would harvest a plethora of green thumbs, even when he was all assurances that 4.22 was a screaming buy per his magical charts. (Which was when I had three relatives sell for their buy-in price.)
More than once I've read that victims participate in their own exploitation. I think it's because human nature dictates that anything which opposes one's self-interest can't be good, and the internet is certainly illustrative of that. . . . And so it goes.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The next cash milestone payment is based on P3 completion of the UC trial along with FDA approval.
You should have phoned the company and expressed you concerns. I'm sure that Athersys would have altered their business strategy to help you out as a shareholder.
Read the label more carefully. It's one every four hours, not four every one hour. And avoid driving and operating power equipment for a few weeks. Good luck.
"Beware of geeks bearing formulas." Nice quote. Message boards get more than their fair share of those to beware of.. It's human nature, I guess, to look for patterns that allow you to believe that you've got an edge in prognostication. But the unknown remains just as unknown to today's market geeks as to antiquity's Egyptian astrologers.
Not so, Liza. The forbidden word is "q******cz****ing." (Even the additiion of one more letter would have led to ignominious deletion of this post.)
Yahoo also makes arbitrary deletions as a form of in-house humor among bored techies. The only solution is to copy each nascent post so it may be pasted to a thread at a later time. Should there be further deletion, wait for the next shift of techies to relieve the crowd to which you have been providing chuckles.
Much would depend on the treatment price and insurance coverage with your scenario. See today's news about the amazing hepatitus C cure.
Well, Wahnton, for the 50 calls, my avg. is 2.06 per call (ugh). But today I picked up 10 more contracts at 1.35, the midpoint between the bid and ask at the time. So now I'm averaging 1.94 for the lot. That's an awfully large premium considering the strike price and today's stock price. But the current stock price has little relevance, as it's arbitrary and speculative. The play is kind of binary, I think. Either the price significantly pops if MultiStem is as effective on humans as it is with animals, or it craters because of lackluster results. Big risk vs. big reward. At the moment fear seems to rule the roost , but trying to read any of that into trial results is a fool's game.
The call spreads have almost always been big because io illiquidity, but not entirely trustworthy. Currently I've got 50 Oct. 2.50 calls. I wish I had waited a bit to make that bet, but with a sigh I'll try to pick up some more somewhere between the bid and ask.
Meanwhile, I'm pleased that I got lucky enough to sell covered calls for the Oct. 7.5s at .90. That gave me back more than half my initial buy-in money. I'd love to have my shares assigned at that price come expiry, which'd mean 8.40 counting the cc sale money. But I don't see it happening. P2 efficacy would have to be compellingly strong to move the stock that high in just 6 months. But if results *were* eye-popping, that'd really ignite the shares because the P2 is practically as stringent as a P3. Pfizer clearly doesn't want to expend big money on a P3 for UC without strong confidence of success, I think. If all goes very well, those 2.50 Oct. calls could look pretty good. . . . If.
For Calif. you're supposed to use their forms upon sale even though you'll be attaching the umpteen federal forms as well. Forget about the other states or you'll get an ulcer. Actually, even for Calif. you might just submit the federal forms. I doubt very much that you'll be audited. Several years ago I actually *wanted* to be audited so I could learn how the Calif. forms were filled out, but they wouldn't do it and simply accepted the federal forms, the filling out of which I found to be a horror. I now just own LNCO in both my IRA and regular acct. Good luck.