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Suncor Energy Inc. Message Board

ronraymond2003 22 posts  |  Last Activity: May 22, 2014 11:59 AM Member since: Nov 24, 2003
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  • ronraymond2003 by ronraymond2003 May 22, 2014 11:59 AM Flag

    EIA Cuts Recoverable California Shale Estimates By 96%

    The EIA has cut its original estimate of recoverable shale oil reserves in California's much-hyped Monterey shale play by 96%, the L.A. Times' Louis Sahagun reported late Tuesday.


    The agency now says there are just 600 million barrels of recoverable crude — as much as Bolivia. Previously the agency had said there were up to 13.7 billion recoverable barrels.

    The new estimate is expected to be released next month. Sahagun quotes EIA analyst John Staub:

    From the information we've been able to gather, we've not seen evidence that oil extraction in this area is very productive using techniques like fracking...Our oil production estimates combined with a dearth of knowledge about geological differences among the oil fields led to erroneous predictions and estimates.

    In December, the Post Carbon Institute published a report calling into question the EIA's initial estimate, noting that the Monterey's geology, while superficially similar to the country's marquee shale plays like the Bakken and Eagle Ford, contained unusual characteristics that would make it more difficult to access. In a statement last night the group said, “The oil had always been a statistical fantasy. Left out of all the hoopla was the fact that the EIA’s estimate was little more than a back-of-the-envelope calculation.”

    Since the report was published in California, lawmakers have been under tremendous pressure to allow fracking to proceed. Staring them in the face was an estimate that the Monterey shale could create up to 3 million jobs. Governor Jerry Brown had previously said fracking the Monterey presented "a fabulous economic opportunity," and last fall signed into law regulations that would allow the practice to continue in the state.

    Now all that seems to be derailed.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • In february,CNQ was forcasting for 2014 a cash flow range of $8.74 to $ 8.92.
    After Q1 results, they are increasing their forcast range to $9.50 and $9.90.
    You can view this on CNQ web site under investor information/ calender and presentations.

    With their proven record, high growth, low valuation...i still don't understand why CNQ is trading4.5 time cash flow.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ronraymond2003 by ronraymond2003 Apr 29, 2014 11:32 AM Flag

    I know i keep pounding the table on CNQ but it does not take a rocket scientist to figure
    that it is still grossly undervalued.

    Investor could have bought Suncor yesterday for 3% less.Today many are rushing to get
    there hands on it at a higher price.The reason is that they got CONFIRMATION that they are making
    tons of $$$.Any serious investor doing his homework new that they were going to report
    very good results and could have bought SU or any other oil company way cheaper over
    the past few weeks/months.

    Same thing will happen to CNQ.Investor need to see to beleive.

    In a few weks,CNQ will be trading at a much higher price and many will pay say i should have
    bought it when it was still very cheap

    .Well i should have never makes you $$$.You need to buy before
    a stock trades at it's fair value.

    CNQ is still trading at very low multiples and stiil very cheap.Eventually investors will realize
    it.

    These figures are from Suncor report.Nat Gas spot average $5.70 in Q1 2014 vs
    $3.20 in Q1 2013.Every metrics points to huge profits,cashflow and free cash flow
    for CNQ.

    Just like in the case of Suncor, many investor will wait to see the results and pay way more
    to buy in.

    Disclosure,CNQ is my biggest holding.

    Sorry for the spelling , i am french.

  • Crescent Point Energy Corp. (TSX:CPG) has signed an agreement to buy CanEra Energy Corp., a privately held oil and gas producer in southeast Saskatchewan, in a deal valued at $1.1 billion, including debt.

    CanEra's assets include a large land position in the Torquay area in Saskatchewan, where Crescent Point is active, and production of approximately 10,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day.

    So Crescent Point paid $110 per flowing barrels.

    CNQ Economic value (EV = Market cap + total debt) is about 51 billions or 64,000 per flowing
    barrels.

    I am no expert,but it seems that with it's very long life reserve,huge land position,
    nice mix between heavy, light and nat gas,low valuation...and i could go on and on,CNQ is a
    good conservative place to be invested in.

    Money seems to be migrating from sky high multiple valuation stocks to value ones.

    Even though CNQ has moved up recently, it is still trading at very low metrics,especially when
    you consider all the growth it has in front of them.

    I don't think all these favorable environment metrics are factored in the selling price.

    There is only 10 trading days before CNQ reprts it blow off Q1 results.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ronraymond2003 by ronraymond2003 Apr 21, 2014 5:27 PM Flag

    I don't think the strenght of nat gas price are factored in the SP of CNQ
    CNQ is the largest canadian producer of nat gas and the largest land holder.

    Another good news today.

    CNRL Receives AER Approval For Modified Steaming At Primrose

    APRIL 21, 2014, 10:02 A.M.
    The Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) has approved Canadian Natural Resources Limited’s application to modify steaming at phases 23 and 24 of its Primrose and Wolf Lake operations after bitumen was released to surface in other areas of the Primrose site.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 20% production growth and 35% cash flow increase VS 2013.
    These are the numbers CNQ will be reporting (more or less 3%) in 2014.

    CNQ has so many project lined up for the next 10 years.

    How many senior defensive E&P company can say the same.CNQ is in a league of it's own.

    Only 17 trading days before they report their Q1 results.

    Q1 will be spectacular but the best is yet to come.The environment has never been so favorable
    for CDN E&P company.

    Their opportunistic aquisition of Devon,Apache and Talisman assets will be accretive in the last
    3 quarters of 2014.

    CNQ will be trading at $50 + before the end of June.

    I am very bullish on CNQ and it is my biggest position.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Apparently CNQ bought some gas asset in February (Monkman gas from Talisman)

    I just wrote to Rob Larson (CNQ ir corp. communications) to confirm this purchase.

    It is just amazing to see all the assets that CNQ bought in just the last 2 months.

    Devon $3.1 billions on feb. 19th, Apache $375 millions on april 1st and now

    these Monkman assets 75 mmcf/ d witch = 12 MBOE / day.

    With these purchases,they will exceed 800 MBOE/ d in 2014.

    CNQ was already a power house, these asset will fuel their growth profile.

    In their early april presentation they say that for 2014 they will produce in a range of
    716 to 762 MBOE/d and that the cash flow would be in a range of $8.74 to $8.92
    That was before these 3 purchases.

    Also these forcast are based on $95.74 WTI and $4.31 AECO.

    They will report after the close on may 8th.Results will be spectacular.

    Philippe Capelle (V.P.Equity of Standard Life said the following at BNN yesterday.
    It was one of his 3 top picks.

    CNQ has had a great run, with a 36 percent increase over the last six months, but there is still plenty of room to the upside as it trades at only five times cash flow. With the recent asset acquisitions from Devon and Apache, CNQ has unhedged exposure to natural gas which represents 40 percent of its revenue right when the gas price environment is improving, and will continue to deliver high single digit production growth of oil and gas. This is another resource company that will benefit from this weaker Canadian Dollar environment, and will also benefit from the expected tighter heavy oil differentials. Finally, CNQ would benefit from the potential approval of TransCanada Corp Keystone XL pipeline.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ronraymond2003 by ronraymond2003 Apr 7, 2014 10:27 PM Flag

    Got this from another board.I agree 100%.CNQ will trading much higher
    in a few weeks.

    Many investors having positions in E&P stocks would like to see the price
    of WTI,Brent,SCO,Nat gas...at sky high levels.

    Actually, i think it would be a bad thing.If price goes too high, it will kill demand and
    favor sustitution (coal instead of gas).and it will slow down the economy...

    At levels of $90 to $105 for WTI with spread of 17% to 22% for heavy and with
    gas at $3.80 to $5.00 we do not hurt the economy and no switch occurs.

    At present energy price levels, CNQ will be making record profit and cash flow.

    Nasdaq stocks that are trading at bubble prices are starting to go down big time.
    This corrrection has an negative effect on the overall market.

    But we are seing that stocks that are trading at low multiples are not being hit as hard.

    Once the correction over, we will see these value-growth stocks resumes their strong up trend.

    With only 4 weeks before Q1reporting i am willing to predict that we will see an increase of
    at least 10% for CNQ before they report.

    A 10% move would put CNQ at $47.65 and it would be trading at only 5.1 time cash flow.

    I think they will easily cash flow $9.25 or more this year so at 6 time CNQ should be trading
    at $55.5.

    For me,CNQ is a conservative no brainer investment.Eventually and i suspect sooner than
    later, valuation will rise to a more realistic level.

    Sorry for the spelling i am french.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • For those long CNQ,they just bought some more gas assets in western Canada while gas is still
    cheap.Combining these assets with their existing huge nat. gas assets make a lot of senses.
    They are already one of the company that has the cheapest producing nat gas costs.
    Cash flow is growing so much that it is only a matter of time before we see a huge SP increease.

    Analyst are just starting to change their Cash flow and profit forcast on Canadian E&P.

    Bmo just did it yesterday for Canadian oil sands

    30Mar2014 2014 CFPS Estimate 2.64 3.44 +0.80 +30.3%
    30Mar2014 2014 EPS Estimate 1.53 2.34 +0.81 +52.9

    CNRL’s purchase comes one month after spent $3.1-billion to buy Devon Energy Corp.’s natural gas plays in Western Canada, making it a consolidator. CNRL confirmed it purchased Apache’s assets, and one analyst believes it may have bought them on the cheap. RBC Dominion Securities analyst Leo Mariani said the price Apache received is “slightly weak.”

  • Reply to

    just the truth!!

    by cnrlsucks Mar 26, 2014 5:36 PM
    ronraymond2003 ronraymond2003 Mar 27, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    CNQ is trading at less then 5 time cash flow and growing at a 10% +.It has long life assets
    and has made thousands of millionaires in Canada and around the world.

    Don't know the reason of your negativness but if it is because you are short you better cover
    because you are going to get hurt and that is not a health issue but a hit to your net worth.

    CNQ and most of Canadian oil and gas stocks have been lagging big time over the past 6 years.

    They are just at the start of a huge upward reevaluation.they will eventually be better priced.

    CNQ will generate cash flow north of $9 this year and about $16 in 3 years with free cash flow
    of more than $6 in 2017.Do the math, in a year or two CNQ could be trading at $80 + by just applying
    a multiple of 5 time.Can you imagine if there would be an expansion of the multiple.

  • ronraymond2003 by ronraymond2003 Mar 20, 2014 8:11 AM Flag

    Yesterday was again a good day for the price of SCO and WCS as per
    FirstEnergy.
    CNQ showed strengh on a weak day caused by Yellen openness.
    We could see some short term pullback but the fondamentals are at their best
    compared to the past 6 years.

    I think CIBC $49 target will be surpass by a lot.

    Crude Oil (C$/bbl)
    Synthetic Crude $111.92 +$1.12
    Western Canada Select $89.01 +$1.48

    CIBC World Markets analyst Arthur Grayfer initiated coverage on eight of Canada's largest energy companies, with Suncor Energy Inc. and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. being his favourites.

    Here's his recommendations on all the stocks, along with a brief snapshot of commentary on each:

    Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. Initiates coverage with a "sector outperformer" rating and 12- to 18-month price target of $49 (Canadian).

    "Canadian Natural stands out amongst its peers for multiple fundamental reasons and from a valuation perspective. The company has a meaningful land position with a balanced portfolio of synthetic crude oil/light oil, heavy oil and natural gas, which offers decades of growth visibility... CNQ has a consistent track record of dividend increases (about 14 consecutive years). We expect the expanding free cash flow profile to fund long-term growth initiatives and support the return of capital to shareholders through continued dividend increases and share buybacks."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ronraymond2003 by ronraymond2003 Mar 19, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    Even with the recent price increase in CNQ, i don't think it is even close to what it is really
    worth.I wonder how many investors knows that CNQ is the second biggest producer and owner
    of nat gas land in CDN.

    In 2013, the production mix was 41% heavy,29% gas,15% light and medium oil and 15%
    SCO.

    The 29%nat gas sales generated only 10% of sales.So just do the math.
    I think that they will exceed by far their $8.71 to $8.94 cash flow / share forcast.

    Yesterday's FirstEnergy quote was$110.80CDN for SCO and $87.52 CDN for WCS

    We are finnally seying the light out of the tunnel for CDN producers.
    Western Canada producers will be getting better pricing because of the debottlenecking
    of Cushing and more ways to move the crude out.

    Southern portion of Keystone, doubling of Seaway to 800,000 in may -june, more railcars being
    added, Eastern pipeline reversal,BP Whitting going online ...etc.

    Eventually we wil get a better price for these valuable long life assets.
    Reading more and more article saying that the shale oil and gas have faster decline rates than
    thought.It may not be the shale revolution after all.

    Again, sorry for the spelling ,i am french and doing my best.

    Having been long CNQ for many many years and intend to stay like that for many more to come.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • CNQ has to be the cheapest senior E&P stock right now.
    Cash flow of about $9 this year
    Anybody seriously following and understanding CNQ knows how cheap the valuation
    CNQ is trading right know.In it's latest presentation (march), CNQ is forcasting Cash flow of
    $8.74 to $8.92 before taking in account their recent aquisition of Devon's assets.

    CNQ and it's peers traditionnaly trades at 4.5 times in depress time and up to 7 to 7.5
    time in good time.

    Applying a reasonable 6 time would put CNQ share price at about $54.

    Eventually, the street will wake up.

    CNQ is probably one of the cheapest E&P stock right now.

    In the presentation, they forcast FREE cash flow of more than $6 / share in 2018.so this mean
    that they will probably cash flow more than $14 / share in 4 years.Applying again just a 6 time
    gets us at $84.

    Sorry for the spelling, i am french.

    I am a very happy and long time holder of CNQ

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • No resistance.With Canadian gas at double last year price,CNQ will be reporting
    very good results in 2014.Many do not realize that CNQ has the biggest CND land position in gas.
    It is 40% gas and the second lowest CDN producer behing Tourmaline.
    In the last 5 years got very low profitability from gas.

    Very good thing that they did not sale the B.C. acreage.

  • CALGARY, Dec. 20, 2013 /PRNewswire/ - PENN WEST PETROLEUM LTD. (TSX - PWT) (NYSE - PWE) ("Penn West", "our" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has successfully completed its previously announced asset divestitures.

    On November 6, 2013, Penn West announced its intention to divest approximately $485 million of non-core assets producing approximately 12,500 boe per day as "phase one" of its divestment strategy related to the Company's long-term plan. Today, the Company announces it has closed a series of transactions to dispose of non-core assets currently producing approximately 10,800 boe per day for total cash proceeds of approximately $486 million. The amount of production to be sold changed as the portfolio of properties transacted was altered slightly. On average, the divestitures were transacted at approximately 5.5 times estimated 2014 net operating income ("NOI") and 1.1 times Penn West's current internal estimate of the proved plus probable producing reserves value discounted at 10 percent. Divested production was weighted predominantly (81 percent) toward heavy oil and natural gas and the proceeds were used to repay outstanding advances on the company's credit facilities.

    Penn West's previously announced 2014 average production guidance of 105,000 to 110,000 boe per day remains unchanged at this time notwithstanding the difference in the production disposed in "phase one". Further dispositions are targeted for early 2014 and Penn West will update its 2014 production guidance as significant transactions close.

    Dave Roberts, President and CEO commented: "The closing of these transactions further improves Penn West's business by improving our balance sheet at attractive metrics while fully retaining our core asset positions. There was no development of these properties in our plans for the next five years, thus the assets are better managed by the counterparties, providing an economic benefit to both parties. I am pleased we were able to transa

  • ronraymond2003 by ronraymond2003 Dec 20, 2013 1:26 PM Flag

    CNQ just hit a 19 month high in Toronto.

    CDN energy sector has been a big lagger for the past 5 years.It could very be the star of 2014.

    Beleive it or not,i have been a shareholder of CNQ since 1984 and was able to retire
    in part because of the huge gain made with this company.

    Still my biggest holding.Probably the best managed Canadian energy company.

    Nice holidays to all

  • ronraymond2003 by ronraymond2003 Nov 25, 2013 3:54 PM Flag

    Did a mistake on previous post.The large short is on the Toronto stock exchange.
    27,713,262 up 969,650 at the end of October.Will be interesting to see how much
    are still short at the end of november

  • ronraymond2003 by ronraymond2003 Nov 25, 2013 3:04 PM Flag

    Cannot be sole responsable for the move.PWE was already up more than 22 cents before his announcement.
    Volume is also higher than usual in toronto.

    PWE is going up because the downside move was way overdone.Rick George ran Suncor succesfully.
    Now, he David Roberts are doing the right move at PWE.Fixing the balance sheet, cutting deep in cost.

    With 26.7 millions share shorted on NYSE and 6.7 millions on TSX , short could be scambling to cover.
    They will have to fork the 14 cents div. in december.

    They aren'ty many stock producing 100 millions + a day and trading at 1/2 book value.
    Once the market realize what George and Roberts are turning this company we will see
    this stock really moving.

    It will take a few months but in the meantime we long are being paid a nice dividend.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ronraymond2003 by ronraymond2003 Nov 21, 2013 2:21 PM Flag

    Yesterday, the WCS (heavy oil grade) out of Canada went up by $6.68 and the SCO (light sweet) went up
    by $2.98 reducing the huge gap with WTI.CAnadian crude is still trading at a huge discount but CNQ management recently stated as many others that the discount will narrow shortly with Withing refinery back on
    and increase pipeline output out of Cushing.

  • Only traded 10 days at a higher price this year.Very close to a 18 months breakout.May see my $60 sooner
    than later.

SU
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