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Suncor Energy Inc. Message Board

ronraymond2003 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 14, 2014 1:03 PM Member since: Nov 24, 2003
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  • ronraymond2003 by ronraymond2003 Mar 19, 2014 12:12 PM Flag

    Even with the recent price increase in CNQ, i don't think it is even close to what it is really
    worth.I wonder how many investors knows that CNQ is the second biggest producer and owner
    of nat gas land in CDN.

    In 2013, the production mix was 41% heavy,29% gas,15% light and medium oil and 15%

    The 29%nat gas sales generated only 10% of sales.So just do the math.
    I think that they will exceed by far their $8.71 to $8.94 cash flow / share forcast.

    Yesterday's FirstEnergy quote was$110.80CDN for SCO and $87.52 CDN for WCS

    We are finnally seying the light out of the tunnel for CDN producers.
    Western Canada producers will be getting better pricing because of the debottlenecking
    of Cushing and more ways to move the crude out.

    Southern portion of Keystone, doubling of Seaway to 800,000 in may -june, more railcars being
    added, Eastern pipeline reversal,BP Whitting going online ...etc.

    Eventually we wil get a better price for these valuable long life assets.
    Reading more and more article saying that the shale oil and gas have faster decline rates than
    thought.It may not be the shale revolution after all.

    Again, sorry for the spelling ,i am french and doing my best.

    Having been long CNQ for many many years and intend to stay like that for many more to come.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ronraymond2003 by ronraymond2003 Apr 7, 2014 10:27 PM Flag

    Got this from another board.I agree 100%.CNQ will trading much higher
    in a few weeks.

    Many investors having positions in E&P stocks would like to see the price
    of WTI,Brent,SCO,Nat sky high levels.

    Actually, i think it would be a bad thing.If price goes too high, it will kill demand and
    favor sustitution (coal instead of gas).and it will slow down the economy...

    At levels of $90 to $105 for WTI with spread of 17% to 22% for heavy and with
    gas at $3.80 to $5.00 we do not hurt the economy and no switch occurs.

    At present energy price levels, CNQ will be making record profit and cash flow.

    Nasdaq stocks that are trading at bubble prices are starting to go down big time.
    This corrrection has an negative effect on the overall market.

    But we are seing that stocks that are trading at low multiples are not being hit as hard.

    Once the correction over, we will see these value-growth stocks resumes their strong up trend.

    With only 4 weeks before Q1reporting i am willing to predict that we will see an increase of
    at least 10% for CNQ before they report.

    A 10% move would put CNQ at $47.65 and it would be trading at only 5.1 time cash flow.

    I think they will easily cash flow $9.25 or more this year so at 6 time CNQ should be trading
    at $55.5.

    For me,CNQ is a conservative no brainer investment.Eventually and i suspect sooner than
    later, valuation will rise to a more realistic level.

    Sorry for the spelling i am french.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    just the truth!!

    by cnrlsucks Mar 26, 2014 5:36 PM
    ronraymond2003 ronraymond2003 Mar 27, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    CNQ is trading at less then 5 time cash flow and growing at a 10% +.It has long life assets
    and has made thousands of millionaires in Canada and around the world.

    Don't know the reason of your negativness but if it is because you are short you better cover
    because you are going to get hurt and that is not a health issue but a hit to your net worth.

    CNQ and most of Canadian oil and gas stocks have been lagging big time over the past 6 years.

    They are just at the start of a huge upward reevaluation.they will eventually be better priced.

    CNQ will generate cash flow north of $9 this year and about $16 in 3 years with free cash flow
    of more than $6 in 2017.Do the math, in a year or two CNQ could be trading at $80 + by just applying
    a multiple of 5 time.Can you imagine if there would be an expansion of the multiple.

  • ronraymond2003 by ronraymond2003 Mar 20, 2014 8:11 AM Flag

    Yesterday was again a good day for the price of SCO and WCS as per
    CNQ showed strengh on a weak day caused by Yellen openness.
    We could see some short term pullback but the fondamentals are at their best
    compared to the past 6 years.

    I think CIBC $49 target will be surpass by a lot.

    Crude Oil (C$/bbl)
    Synthetic Crude $111.92 +$1.12
    Western Canada Select $89.01 +$1.48

    CIBC World Markets analyst Arthur Grayfer initiated coverage on eight of Canada's largest energy companies, with Suncor Energy Inc. and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. being his favourites.

    Here's his recommendations on all the stocks, along with a brief snapshot of commentary on each:

    Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. Initiates coverage with a "sector outperformer" rating and 12- to 18-month price target of $49 (Canadian).

    "Canadian Natural stands out amongst its peers for multiple fundamental reasons and from a valuation perspective. The company has a meaningful land position with a balanced portfolio of synthetic crude oil/light oil, heavy oil and natural gas, which offers decades of growth visibility... CNQ has a consistent track record of dividend increases (about 14 consecutive years). We expect the expanding free cash flow profile to fund long-term growth initiatives and support the return of capital to shareholders through continued dividend increases and share buybacks."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • CNQ has to be the cheapest senior E&P stock right now.
    Cash flow of about $9 this year
    Anybody seriously following and understanding CNQ knows how cheap the valuation
    CNQ is trading right know.In it's latest presentation (march), CNQ is forcasting Cash flow of
    $8.74 to $8.92 before taking in account their recent aquisition of Devon's assets.

    CNQ and it's peers traditionnaly trades at 4.5 times in depress time and up to 7 to 7.5
    time in good time.

    Applying a reasonable 6 time would put CNQ share price at about $54.

    Eventually, the street will wake up.

    CNQ is probably one of the cheapest E&P stock right now.

    In the presentation, they forcast FREE cash flow of more than $6 / share in this mean
    that they will probably cash flow more than $14 / share in 4 years.Applying again just a 6 time
    gets us at $84.

    Sorry for the spelling, i am french.

    I am a very happy and long time holder of CNQ

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • For those long CNQ,they just bought some more gas assets in western Canada while gas is still
    cheap.Combining these assets with their existing huge nat. gas assets make a lot of senses.
    They are already one of the company that has the cheapest producing nat gas costs.
    Cash flow is growing so much that it is only a matter of time before we see a huge SP increease.

    Analyst are just starting to change their Cash flow and profit forcast on Canadian E&P.

    Bmo just did it yesterday for Canadian oil sands

    30Mar2014 2014 CFPS Estimate 2.64 3.44 +0.80 +30.3%
    30Mar2014 2014 EPS Estimate 1.53 2.34 +0.81 +52.9

    CNRL’s purchase comes one month after spent $3.1-billion to buy Devon Energy Corp.’s natural gas plays in Western Canada, making it a consolidator. CNRL confirmed it purchased Apache’s assets, and one analyst believes it may have bought them on the cheap. RBC Dominion Securities analyst Leo Mariani said the price Apache received is “slightly weak.”

  • Apparently CNQ bought some gas asset in February (Monkman gas from Talisman)

    I just wrote to Rob Larson (CNQ ir corp. communications) to confirm this purchase.

    It is just amazing to see all the assets that CNQ bought in just the last 2 months.

    Devon $3.1 billions on feb. 19th, Apache $375 millions on april 1st and now

    these Monkman assets 75 mmcf/ d witch = 12 MBOE / day.

    With these purchases,they will exceed 800 MBOE/ d in 2014.

    CNQ was already a power house, these asset will fuel their growth profile.

    In their early april presentation they say that for 2014 they will produce in a range of
    716 to 762 MBOE/d and that the cash flow would be in a range of $8.74 to $8.92
    That was before these 3 purchases.

    Also these forcast are based on $95.74 WTI and $4.31 AECO.

    They will report after the close on may 8th.Results will be spectacular.

    Philippe Capelle (V.P.Equity of Standard Life said the following at BNN yesterday.
    It was one of his 3 top picks.

    CNQ has had a great run, with a 36 percent increase over the last six months, but there is still plenty of room to the upside as it trades at only five times cash flow. With the recent asset acquisitions from Devon and Apache, CNQ has unhedged exposure to natural gas which represents 40 percent of its revenue right when the gas price environment is improving, and will continue to deliver high single digit production growth of oil and gas. This is another resource company that will benefit from this weaker Canadian Dollar environment, and will also benefit from the expected tighter heavy oil differentials. Finally, CNQ would benefit from the potential approval of TransCanada Corp Keystone XL pipeline.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 20% production growth and 35% cash flow increase VS 2013.
    These are the numbers CNQ will be reporting (more or less 3%) in 2014.

    CNQ has so many project lined up for the next 10 years.

    How many senior defensive E&P company can say the same.CNQ is in a league of it's own.

    Only 17 trading days before they report their Q1 results.

    Q1 will be spectacular but the best is yet to come.The environment has never been so favorable
    for CDN E&P company.

    Their opportunistic aquisition of Devon,Apache and Talisman assets will be accretive in the last
    3 quarters of 2014.

    CNQ will be trading at $50 + before the end of June.

    I am very bullish on CNQ and it is my biggest position.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

36.73Apr 17 4:03 PMEDT

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