This is not a good news, if any investor was thinking making a killing with this stock on oil price comeback, can kiss that hope goodbye. If they were going to do this for all their bonds, they have to issue 500 million shares bringing the share count to 700 million from 200 million. Sianora from this investor.
I do not want to get in trouble by posting the transcript of information they discussed on June Third, but it totaly back tracks the Platelet information that caused the stock to drop $15 in one day. I tripled my holding based on what was sent to me. Call the company and ask for transcript of the conference call on June 3rd, or listen to it from their website.
Once investors find out about the information that was given on Annual meeting stock will move up $15.
Get the transcript of the conference call on annual meeting. on june 3rd., make a buddle of money.
What they are saying is that there got hold of another independent study that was done on the disease, and the incidence of platelet problem due to diseas itself was more than on their drug study, and they also say now that many other common drugs cause platelet drops, even common over the counter drugs such as Tylenole.
Crooke had a treble lack of self control on conference call, often hard to understand, on a bad acoustic, saying he did not know, they had to figure out if the problem covered all of their platform, it was the worse conference call performance I have heard. Now the finds out that there was no problem at all, he single handidly ruined the investor confidence by panicking and letting investors see his panic. Did anyone heard or read the statement on June 3rd, that all of the problems are due to the normal effects of disease and not the drug? based on new data, is GSK going to start p III now? they said they would evaluate it. Hopefully Mr. Crooke has learned to not spew negatives at investors before doing his homework.
I would not want to invest in a company solely based on uneconomic contracts, remember Cheniere was originally built for imports, buying gas at higher price, paying for shipping and selling it at lower price will not happen. A company with idle facility will have demolished stock price. There are a lot of LNG export competitors coming online which may keep nat gas prices low outside of US for a long time, Australia is one, huge country, small population therefore low domestic demand, with must export nat gas.
The whole idea behind LNG investment has been that the Nat gas is plenty and cheap here in US, but now a worrying, worrying for LNG that is trend is developing. The gas injection to storage has been much less than normal, and the excess inventory compared to before has gone down more than 300 Billion cubic feet. Nat gas is selling for $4/ Mcf in London, now if price reverses course and becomes more expensive here, you have a whole a lot of useless facility, and mountain of debt, and a stock that bond holders will be taking away from equity holders. Where id the opportunity in a scenario such as described, SWN, low cost dry gas, a direct benefissiary of higher gas price. Also you need to remember, next winter will most likely will be colder than last, and you may be looking at shortages.
Wall street is worried as company has slashed earning guidance every couple of months, but this last slash is most likely the last one, and perhaps more that warranted, why? the new CEO, man is starting up, he wants to clear the deck and under promise in order to be able to over deliver. The $6.6 eps still a very big earning for a $24 stock, a PE of 8 on a $6.60 will result on a $53 stock.
If the remaining five IMS reports average at 600 TRX/wk, and assuming that the price per script is same as last quarter's average of $621, Revenue will beat by $1.2 Million. I think there has been some price increase which would also bump the revenue higher. I have also assumed a 60% captured rate by IMS, same as last quarter.
Question is, is the $1.2 Million priced in or not? Stock is trading substantially higher, which could be partly due to the good news on latest clinical trial. Also it seems that the sales have accelerated recently, most likely due to good news on Iron deficiency control. The remaining 5 weeks could come in at higher than 600/wk TRX average which could also bump the revenue, but it also could be lower, but I doubt it.
I disagree, I take a drug that has a good chance of getting approved, for a market that you know the drug is going to be on high demand, over Auryxia which is having hard time getting traction.
We know from the fixed costs associated with marketing Auryxia, we need something north of $150 Million in sales to start being profitible.. The formula however will be different for an acquirer of Keryx that markets other drugs and it's marginal/additional fixed cost will be nowhere near as high as $150 million, at $150 million drug will be solidly profitable for acquirer that can plug tghis into existing sales force. Kerix can fetch 4 times potential revenue for it's drug. for keryx to be worth $6/share or $810 million in market cap, Auryxia has to have sales of $810/4 or $202 million, that is assuming that acquirer would be willing to pay 4X sales for Auryxia. We can assume that any sales pottential higher than $202 Million would indicate a bid proportionally higher than $6/share. for Keryx to fetch a bid of $12/share, we need a sales potential of $404 Million. As the sales pottential increases, buyers would be willing to pay a higher multiple of sales, a sales potential of $1 Billion, perhaps will increase Keryx valuation around $40/share. But remember where we are sitting now, we are looking at annual run rate in sales no more than $40 Million, which means around $90 Million loss per Year. Conclusion: this is as speculative of a stock as you can get.
Thank you. disappointed to see a drop in IMS, last weeks big jump had me thinking that maybe finally the drug is taking off.