If you need to be assured that VRX is way undervalued, and stock not only will survive, but perhaps more than triple within a year, look at prescription levels and trends. This company has bought trophy drugs that have huge sales and are growing, just look at weekly prescription numbers and it's growth rate on Jublia. I admit there are problems, but you do not want to lose the sight of the facts that earnings are going to be there because sales are there, and if earnings are there, then that is what rules at the end, not the negative sentiment that exists now.
From what we hear, investors are sending in withdrawal notices to hedge funds forcing them to sell the VRX shares, every press is focused on bad news. I don't like this company for what they have done contributing to the drug inflation, but that was the past, now we have a value stock. I do not believe for a minute that bond holders will push this company to bankruptcy, they have nothing to gain by doing that, VRX has a very healthy cash flow to service it's debt many times over, they will survive and at PE of less than 3, it is hard not to see value here.Remember Imclone controversy, that drove the stock from 50 to single digit only to come back and be taken over at $70. Concentrate on drugs baby, they work, they sell, sales is growing, go against the negative press, the issues on hand are not bad enough to warrant such a low share price.
If FDA had put a hold because there had been unusual high death rate due to drug, that would have been bad news, but if hold is because they have some question, it does not warrant the price drop we have here. This company has 30 drugs in pieline, to shave up 10% because FDA has questions to ask, it is way overdone.
The question is about protocol, it is not about any advers test results. It is standard procedure to put a hold when FDA has question, this is not necessarily a bad news.
Once investors find out about the information that was given on Annual meeting stock will move up $15.
Get the transcript of the conference call on annual meeting. on june 3rd., make a buddle of money.
We know from the fixed costs associated with marketing Auryxia, we need something north of $150 Million in sales to start being profitible.. The formula however will be different for an acquirer of Keryx that markets other drugs and it's marginal/additional fixed cost will be nowhere near as high as $150 million, at $150 million drug will be solidly profitable for acquirer that can plug tghis into existing sales force. Kerix can fetch 4 times potential revenue for it's drug. for keryx to be worth $6/share or $810 million in market cap, Auryxia has to have sales of $810/4 or $202 million, that is assuming that acquirer would be willing to pay 4X sales for Auryxia. We can assume that any sales pottential higher than $202 Million would indicate a bid proportionally higher than $6/share. for Keryx to fetch a bid of $12/share, we need a sales potential of $404 Million. As the sales pottential increases, buyers would be willing to pay a higher multiple of sales, a sales potential of $1 Billion, perhaps will increase Keryx valuation around $40/share. But remember where we are sitting now, we are looking at annual run rate in sales no more than $40 Million, which means around $90 Million loss per Year. Conclusion: this is as speculative of a stock as you can get.
Crooke had a treble lack of self control on conference call, often hard to understand, on a bad acoustic, saying he did not know, they had to figure out if the problem covered all of their platform, it was the worse conference call performance I have heard. Now the finds out that there was no problem at all, he single handidly ruined the investor confidence by panicking and letting investors see his panic. Did anyone heard or read the statement on June 3rd, that all of the problems are due to the normal effects of disease and not the drug? based on new data, is GSK going to start p III now? they said they would evaluate it. Hopefully Mr. Crooke has learned to not spew negatives at investors before doing his homework.
If the remaining five IMS reports average at 600 TRX/wk, and assuming that the price per script is same as last quarter's average of $621, Revenue will beat by $1.2 Million. I think there has been some price increase which would also bump the revenue higher. I have also assumed a 60% captured rate by IMS, same as last quarter.
Question is, is the $1.2 Million priced in or not? Stock is trading substantially higher, which could be partly due to the good news on latest clinical trial. Also it seems that the sales have accelerated recently, most likely due to good news on Iron deficiency control. The remaining 5 weeks could come in at higher than 600/wk TRX average which could also bump the revenue, but it also could be lower, but I doubt it.
There is a chance of that. I think the real risk is that, can VRX maintain it's existing sales, even 90% of it's existing sales through the normal managed pharmacy channels, Vs specialty pharmacy channels they used before. I see a risk there, but their guidance ( not to be relied uppon), and so far reported prescription trends indicate that situation is not as bad as feared. All in all I agree, there is risk, I would not invest money that I cannot afford to lose.
I hate to throw water on your fire, but have you checked the side effects of the drug, I think patients are not tolerating the drug, and as such we have low refill, and doctors that are hesitant to prescribe it to more patients. theoretically if all patients stayed with regimen, the TRX should by now be multiples of magnitude larger than NRX, but it is not. This is not kind of a drug that patients take for 30 days and they are cured, it is a maintenance drug, if they stop taking it, it means it did not work for them. I think we are hoping for success, but prescription trends are telling us to forget it, with that said, if prescription trends get strong, I will be all over it, meanwhile a small number of shares so that I stay interested..
This is not a good news, if any investor was thinking making a killing with this stock on oil price comeback, can kiss that hope goodbye. If they were going to do this for all their bonds, they have to issue 500 million shares bringing the share count to 700 million from 200 million. Sianora from this investor.
This guy was running VRX before coming to ENDP and screwing this one up. I think he is toxic and nobody should hire him anymore. Is he the careless acquisition fellow for both companies?
Wall street is worried as company has slashed earning guidance every couple of months, but this last slash is most likely the last one, and perhaps more that warranted, why? the new CEO, man is starting up, he wants to clear the deck and under promise in order to be able to over deliver. The $6.6 eps still a very big earning for a $24 stock, a PE of 8 on a $6.60 will result on a $53 stock.
Allergan with all the cash, and with inversion rule which makes smaller aquizitions favored more, VRX will have no trouble selling assets at primume prices
I would not want to invest in a company solely based on uneconomic contracts, remember Cheniere was originally built for imports, buying gas at higher price, paying for shipping and selling it at lower price will not happen. A company with idle facility will have demolished stock price. There are a lot of LNG export competitors coming online which may keep nat gas prices low outside of US for a long time, Australia is one, huge country, small population therefore low domestic demand, with must export nat gas.
These are all smoke screen, when dust settles in 2 to 3 months this stock should be trading north of $50.
I disagree, I take a drug that has a good chance of getting approved, for a market that you know the drug is going to be on high demand, over Auryxia which is having hard time getting traction.
I don't know who you are addressing, I have made nothing but money on this stock, used to own it when it was Biovail, got out before the latest big drop, and recently got in at $26, please don't feel sorry for me.
I do not want to get in trouble by posting the transcript of information they discussed on June Third, but it totaly back tracks the Platelet information that caused the stock to drop $15 in one day. I tripled my holding based on what was sent to me. Call the company and ask for transcript of the conference call on June 3rd, or listen to it from their website.