Based on the quarterly prescriptions reported by company, they were doing average of 603 a week, therefore IMS reports are less than 50% of the actual.
According to conference call, the reason patients dropping out is non coverage by payers. Why in the word would you keep adding salesman and increase cost if you have not made any progress on payers front, same 65% coverage. This would be like trying to pick up water with a strainer.
it was because of the upgrade. I think a lot rides on label expansion, if Ph3 is good and they get label expansion, then stock is worth more, otherwise it will be a bad investment. This company even if they meet their guidance is far from profitability, their cost base is way too high, they only have one drug and so many salesman.of course, the day they get results of the test results, if good you will not have tge chance to buy it at today's price, it will see a big jump. Also for consideration is, when you take the dilution from converts into account, the market cap is very high as it is.
There is 55 million shares short on 145 million shares outstanding. the Tariffs, the lower interest rate which would inflate hard assets, the global steel price improvement, pending better economic growth rate, all of these are wind behind X's back, . Last time stock was in this position it went up to $200. Enjoy the ride., and watch the shorts twist and turn in pain.
Read the last earning report and projections. When they did their projection they assumed $2 copper price, little over $1000 for gold, and $34 for Brent crude, with that they projected $2 billion in positive cash flow/year after capital expenditures. Guess what? copper is over $2.30, gold over $1250, Brent crude over $41, all of that differentials are going to drop to the bottom line. They produce 1.15 billion pound of copper a quarter, that is $356 Million/quarter extra coming just from copper, that is around 30 Cents/quarter a share just from copper. There are all kinds of other pluses too, federal reserve has joined the currency war and stopped raising interest rate, this will create an asset inflation, from gold, oil, copper, to such hard assets as commercial real estate among other things, and there is no negative political rhetoric like there is against the banks and the drug companies. If you are still short this stock, you are plain stupid.
Oh yes I forgot. they were showing huge losses due to marking to market their reserves of oil, gold, and copper, but now with prices of commodity rising, they are going to show huge gains from same. Where do you think price of this stock is going to go when they report, $4/ share quarterly earnings?
Everyone is downgrading this stock at 26, when they were saying buy buy at $260. So, is this a value stock now? I think so. Forget about the earnings, which is very high in relation to stock price, if you look at it at asset price it is a buy now. If they were to sell everything at fire sale orice of 4 times lowered revenue, pay the debt holders it will leave $37 / share for the shareholders. Bush and lLom alone would bring near $20 Billion.
They are going to get the payors on board, Apparently the present price of Auryxia is 2 to 3 times the price of IV therapy. We shall see what they will do regarding the pricing, if they lower it for pre-dialysis, then they would need to lower it for the dialysis patients too. I wonder how they are going to go around it. Don't forget many iron deficient patients can buy cheap generic pills, Auryxia will be for patients that cannot tolerate or do not benefit from iron pills.
I hate to throw water on your fire, but have you checked the side effects of the drug, I think patients are not tolerating the drug, and as such we have low refill, and doctors that are hesitant to prescribe it to more patients. theoretically if all patients stayed with regimen, the TRX should by now be multiples of magnitude larger than NRX, but it is not. This is not kind of a drug that patients take for 30 days and they are cured, it is a maintenance drug, if they stop taking it, it means it did not work for them. I think we are hoping for success, but prescription trends are telling us to forget it, with that said, if prescription trends get strong, I will be all over it, meanwhile a small number of shares so that I stay interested..
How do you know 17 million shares have been converted? I would actually be a little worried if shares are converted. There is no reason to convert your shares before deadline unless you want to sell your shares, convertible bonds are safer than common shares, in case of a bankruptcy bonds holder have priority over stock holders, therefore you hold to your bonds unless you want to convert and sell you shares.
If you need to be assured that VRX is way undervalued, and stock not only will survive, but perhaps more than triple within a year, look at prescription levels and trends. This company has bought trophy drugs that have huge sales and are growing, just look at weekly prescription numbers and it's growth rate on Jublia. I admit there are problems, but you do not want to lose the sight of the facts that earnings are going to be there because sales are there, and if earnings are there, then that is what rules at the end, not the negative sentiment that exists now.
I don't know who you are addressing, I have made nothing but money on this stock, used to own it when it was Biovail, got out before the latest big drop, and recently got in at $26, please don't feel sorry for me.
Nonesense, Jublia weekly TRX are going gangbusters, it has grown to 0ver TRX of 17000 in US, and over 100,000 weekly TRX in EU, do you realize how big is that. As far as not working, you need to apply the medication for about a year allowing healthy nail to grow, you will not know if it is working or not until the bad nail is grown away.
From what we hear, investors are sending in withdrawal notices to hedge funds forcing them to sell the VRX shares, every press is focused on bad news. I don't like this company for what they have done contributing to the drug inflation, but that was the past, now we have a value stock. I do not believe for a minute that bond holders will push this company to bankruptcy, they have nothing to gain by doing that, VRX has a very healthy cash flow to service it's debt many times over, they will survive and at PE of less than 3, it is hard not to see value here.Remember Imclone controversy, that drove the stock from 50 to single digit only to come back and be taken over at $70. Concentrate on drugs baby, they work, they sell, sales is growing, go against the negative press, the issues on hand are not bad enough to warrant such a low share price.
There is a chance of that. I think the real risk is that, can VRX maintain it's existing sales, even 90% of it's existing sales through the normal managed pharmacy channels, Vs specialty pharmacy channels they used before. I see a risk there, but their guidance ( not to be relied uppon), and so far reported prescription trends indicate that situation is not as bad as feared. All in all I agree, there is risk, I would not invest money that I cannot afford to lose.