People are spooked by the fact that UPL has a high debt, but they are wrong here. UPL has only about $150 million of interest expenses a year on revenue of over $1.2 Billion. There is no material debt coming due for the next 2 years, I think about $200 Million, with plenty of bank credit line to take care of them. Ultra's revenue is over 75% from gas, where gas price has nowhere near impacted as has oil. What is interesting here is that expected reduction in shale oil production, will reduce associated gas production and will actually benefit gas prices. UPL is at the top of the low cost gas producers, and will survive and benefit greatly from this healthy shakeout, with resulting much healthier business later on. So buckle up, don't sell this baby, in fact take advantage and buy more here.
I do not think the run is because of Ebola, but it is about the good news coming on pancreatic cancer drug doing well enough to stop the trail, and give the drug to everyone on the trail.
And then comes in the royalty payments. This stock is worth well over $80. Grossly undervalued. I think the Ebola crowd are selling, once that is done, this stock will shoot up crazy, it has a lot of short to boot. Short squeeze here she comes.
UPL is by far benefits from higher gas prices. A major part of uncontrolled gas production has been the gas that has been produced as a byproduct of the oil drilling. With less oil drilling, nat gas prices should go higher. A silver lining in dropping oil price for UPL. UPL has already said that their oil Acquisition will be nicely profitable at $80 oil price.
My opinion only, but I think this management thought they were smarter than Exxon, bought their depleted wells, then went on to buy even more mature fields on another cash transaction in the gulf, saddling the company with debt. Come to find out that depleted wells are producing water instead of oil, don't have enough capacity to separate the oil from water, the oil prices dropping like mad. I have a very bad feeling about this company. I bought into this company with the hope that their ultra deep venture with McMoran will bear fruit, but that is not happening either. I still own some shares, can anyone here give a reason that I should hold on. I desperately want to be wrong, but am I,? anyone?
Who do you want to listen to, the man who has written a book on investment, which is out of print and sells for over $2000 a copy, and has amassed $billion of by investing or Adam Fewer Stein
Adam is a cheerleader for shorts on this. We have 20 million share short on this stock, they are trying to save their behind. Read Roth Capital's report, they make a lot of sense to me.$34 price target is sweet. The Iron benefit could not be on the label, because as Roth Capital states it was not a primary point in the study, but information is there, doctors and insurance companies will certainly recognize the benefit.
What people don't realize is that how few shares this company has, 18.5 million shares. that is mere $743 million market cap, if you take out the $96 million in cash, that leaves $647 million market valuation for this company. IDIX was bought out by Merck for $3.8 Billion, and they had no product in PIII. This company has a proven product, which is as good if not better than the Sovaldi.
Abieve will have to pay a lot more than $3billion in milestone and royalties to ENTA for the HepC drug, they will surely buy this company instead of pay all that royalty. Price tag, 3 times the present share price will be below a $2 billion buyout price,still cheap, meaning even at $120, this stock is a bargain. When is market going to wake up and realize this. Next year's earning estimate is over $8, for God's sake.
Cramer is at it again, cheer leading this dog, which has disappointed quarter after quarter. These depleted oil wells that they bought from Exxon, saying they were smarter than Exxon, are producing a lot of water, so much water that it has become disruptive. I think there is more disappointment to come. When you are not making money, and you have pilled up as much debt as these guys have for something that is not working, dividend would be eliminated before long.
These people thought and told us they are smater than Exxon, wrong, they bought Exxon's throwaway, and now they are finding out they were wrong.
Tired of this man padding himself in back and telling how great they done, while running this company to ground. He is picking up what others want to throw away, and claims he can do better with the asets, well he is wrong, the joke has been on him. Sold the shares.
This disease kills 48000 people in US alone, more than breast cancer, the pts population in US is 128000.
The drug price is at $42,000 in Canada and Europe. I think Goldman downgraded the stock to neutral to prevent it from going up too much to spoil the deal.
I think rate of uptake will be considerably different in US than elsewhere. Read the online posts by pts from Canada, they are fuming with anger that their provinces do not cover the drug. In US insurance companies don't tell pts they will not pay because it costs $40,000 a year.
What puzzles me this morning is Goldman downgrading of the stock, I wonder what their policy is with analysts, if their bank side is helping the company with a sale.
There are 128,000 patients in US alone. Company has priced the drug at $42000 per year in Canada and Europe. If they were to price it the same in US, which would be a conservative assumption, and if 100,000 people went on the drug, that would be whopping $4.2 Billion sales in US alone, at 5 times the sales just on US sales that would give it a value of over $20 Billion, or $500 per share. can someone tell me where I am wrong? One thing puzzles me though, when you Google, there are generic offering of this drug from online pharmacies, how is that possible?