I don't know what you are talking about, the sales to debt ration on this company is one of the lowest in the industry, with this sales, they have near $4billion in cash, and total debt is near 12 billion with 18 billion in sales. Most ENP companies have debt of 3 times sales. What is your problem? The only reason you have been right is because the oil and gas price have gone down, you would have been right bashing any oil and gas company, don't pretend you know this company, you know nothing, otherwise you would have been buying this as the gas supply and demand turning a corner
last week inventory build was about same #$%$ year average and less than prior year. This week's numbers are 75 billions build VS 5 year average of 88 and last year's 110 Billion build. Obviously supple demand has turned the corner in a big way, and add to that the fact that exports will start later this year. Buy UPL here and don't look at it for 9 months, you will make a lot of money.
I wouldn't be surprised it hedge funds manipulated this stock in a illegal way, but why would you say shorting against the box be illegal. I think when they report the insider holdings they probably report the net holding. If you were a long holder of the stock with a gain and you thought it was going down for a while, but you were optimistic on the long term prospect, and your sale would have disturbed your holding period, you go ahead and short against the box and cover later and still have your long term position intact, I do not see that being illegal.
You know how Icahn feels about people that short his stock, if not just check the HLF, and what he did to Ackerman there. Now add to that the prospect of takeover here, I think we may have just started a short squeeze that is going to last a long and painful time for shorters.
I believe the book is continually adjusted to the market value, and it is basically based on reserve values for oil companies.
Others in the space trade for multiples of book. CHK also has debt at less than annual revenue, others have debt in multiples of revenue. CHK is going to get a buyout offer from Chinese.
I think your math has a lot of holes too. Where in the world are you getting $12000 per year script cost, it is more like $5000. You are assuming that 3/4 of new script go on to refill, that has not proven to be the case, if that was the case the TRX would have been multiples of NRX by now, and that is not the case.
The magic number is the refill, if every new script was refilled, TRX should move up rapidly. if you want to annualize your weekly scripts, just multiply your weekly total scripts by 52, plus what you think the growth in total script will be. At present rate, I would multiply 350 by 52 or 18200 scripts for the whole year at a $499 per script, you get total of about $9 million in annual sales. So, don't fool yourself, present script numbers are way too short, you need a lot higher than this to get to breakeven. Remember that last quarter the sales was near $400,000. For us to make money with this stock, we need to see TRX numbers at least 20 times of where it is now. I think the sales has the potential of being much higher than that, lets keep the fingers crossed that they realize their potential. The estimates are that sales will go up to $800 million, if it does that, then a market cap of a reasonable 4Xsales, would imply a $40 stock, to get there you need 1.6 million script per year, or a total weekly script, TRX of about 31000. Present price of stock implies 1/4 of 31000 TRX or 7750 TRX per week.
Don't get spooked though, this drug need time to take off, it takes time to switch to new, market is huge. Seth Klarman is a very smart money manager, his book which is out of print sells for $2000 a copy, he just increases his bet, have patience.
Last week had memorial holiday, with a holiday that connects to weekend, many take more than holiday off, so could say that more than one day should be discounted. Now guess what happens when that happens? the following week those missed days are made up for in terms of prescription. Expect a nice jump from 249, and 199.
Thanks, any chance you can ask him for this weeks number? People on AMRN board jump on him for reporting anything other than AMRN.
Keystone, appreciate your effort. would it be asking too much to post it on KERX board. Yahoo finance has been going down the tube
If you believe the management, then it is a screaming buy. Management is also doing some crystal ball predicting. There is solid reasoning for lack of sales, but no proof that rosy predictions will come through either. There is no smoking gun proof that doctors can't wait to prescribe this, but no proof to be negative on the sales either. If sales top at 800 million as estimated, this stock is worth at least $40 at 5 times the sale.