Afrezza, is second to none, Understand.... Simply You don't sell 65%, for 1B (and get only 150M to start with), and then keep borrowing money.
The factor of 10 is a good buy, the 30 for example is a sell. And Yes they will drive it up again, same as they did beginning of 2013, it was so obvious. But too bad I hang on until 7.5$, at cost.
Todays fair value count too.
All your points are forward looking points, except for point 2. Unless more of these point get materialized, the stock will not appreciate.
I agree, only reading the posts, make MNKD a good shorting candidate, as the business development makes only max. 10% of the discussions.
The factor of 20 you have used is very optimistic, however if indeed the sales were good in the first 3 months, than maybe justified. Beside the cost must be deducted, this will effect your calculation substantially.
"Mnkd will get $1.1B from Afrezza GM after COGS for its prior R&D cost, front loading." Could you please explain it, Yes I wasn't aware of it. I couldn't find it in the news.
You might be right. Anyway I still believe Afrezza will be very successful, will generate much higher profit in the future. Slowly I will start to buy in for the next 4Q's. Let the time show us where it will be.
If they are expecting so soon payments, why then they asked for a loan of 175M?
I did invest relative to my budget a lot in MNKD, was willing to hold for a long time, unfortunately, I sold after loosing all the profit that I gained in 2 long years. Well, it was not expected that they will give away 65% of the profit.... This is history, the right thing to do now is to estimate the fair value of MNKD stock, I think it should be between 3.5$ to 4.5$. and I am projecting in the first year of sale a high of 0.1$ a share every quarter, based on sales estimate in one of the articles...... Any reasonable thought is welcome!!
selling 65% of the profit is not a good explanation, and yet taking a loan on it instead of cashing the entire the amount. What else should happen to prove this is not manipulation?
1. The approval of Afrezza is great,
2. the “drug” will be successful,
1. Sanofi is a global leader, and a good fit to MNKD,
The financials of the agreement;
1. Selling 65% of the profit of Afrezza for only almost 1B, ( I think max 40% for Sanofi, may be fair), this brought down my estimate for the fair share value to btw 5.5-6.5.
2. to receive only 150M upfront payment that’s bad. Well, I thought the remaining milestone payments will slowly lift up MNKD financials, but instead
3. MNKD received a loan of 175M, what a joke; Afrezza is one of its kind drug, 65% of the profit was sold for cheap, and even the entire amount of the deal looks like will not be anytime soon, and financials are so bad that MNKD need to get a loan, and pay interest.
Until MNKD start to make profit, my estimate now for the fair value of the share is btw 3.5-4.5.