Not so dumb. AMD didn't just give guidance at the end of Q1, but also updated its guidance at analysts day in mid-May, at the midway point through the quarter just ended. They said everything was on track in mid-May. But how could that be? The warning comes just two months after they said everything was fine. That clearly tells you that management has zero idea what's actually happening to the company's business. If you can't diagnose a problem correctly, you certainly can't correct it. Each quarter that AMD stumbles and bumbles along with moron rejects like Lisa Su, Rory Read, Jim Keller, Mark Papemaster, Devinder Kumar and Raja Koduri, is one less quarter of survival for the company. While it's true that AMD is running out of cash, revenue, market share and margins, it's running out of time much faster than that.
The BoD needs to act brutally and swiftly. They need to chuck every single C-leveler plus every single VP in one fell swoop and bring in a new senior management team with huge incentives to get their hands dirty working with the little guys in the trenches and salvage anything that is salvageable.
The new model suggests AMD will report a net loss of (-$0.15) per share in the second quarter, on revenue of $953 million, down 8 percent quarter-over-quarter, but in line with management’s revised guidance.
The report concludes, “AMD is at a tipping point, with their core PC business under significant pressure from a weak market and increasingly poor competitive position.” Consequently, the analysts maintain an Underperform rating and a $1.50 price target on shares of the company.
Sell early, sell hard and sell often.
"Poor senior management just in it for padding their own pockets while the ship sinks" (in 50 reviews)
"Upper Management are over confident but don't know what they're doing" (in 39 reviews)
"No real job security as there are RIF's about once a year" (in 15 reviews)
"Career growth is very limited at best, and you constantly have this nagging feeling that you'll get laid off at any time" (in 14 reviews)
Got that? Incompetent, greedy, ignorant management and fearful employees under constant risk of layoffs.
AMD has seen better days. A perpetual second string to Intel in the PC and server market, AMD has no real footing in the mobile market and saw sales fall hard in 2012. One nugget of good news for AMD is that its processors appear in the Playstation 4 from Sony and the XBox One from Microsoft.
For the past five years AMD's z-score has been in the distressed region. The financial crisis caused a lot of companies to have problems, and during 2008 the z-score went negative. It began to improve through 2010, but has since turned around and become negative again. According to this, AMD is in as bad a shape as it was during the financial crisis. Not a good sign for the company.
The biggest negative component for AMD is the retained earnings / total assets, or B. Since retained earnings are becoming more and more negative this means that AMD is increasingly funding its operations through the use of debt as time goes on. Indeed, AMD has about $2 billion in debt, a number which increased from 2011. Its cash balance sits at about $1 billion, but this has fallen considerably over the last few years. With a negative free cash flow of $471 million in 2012 and annual interest payments of $175 million, it won't be long before the company blows through all of its cash. AMD is at risk of becoming just a memory within a few years' time.
AMD's condition has only gotten worse since this May 2014 analysis.
You don't understand the going private process do you?
Only companies that are profitable, stable and have a cash:debt ratio that is greater than 1, have any prayer of being taken private.
AMD's debt exceeds its cash by more than 2x and it's main revenue stream, x86, is encumbered by the non-assignment clause in the Intel patent license. We know this from the FTC consent decree that addressed that very clause and its application.
On top of coming up with cash to retire debt (which is of zero value to the new enterprise), the private equity partners would have to come up an unknown amount of additional cash to purchase a new x86 license from Intel, if Intel would sell a license at any price.
The real cost of AMD is likely to be on the order of $6 billion. $6 billion for a company with a few hundred million in cash, multiple billions in debt, and the worst margins in the industry. It's margin, not revenue, that provides ROI to private equity investors. AMD's rate of repayment is measured in decades, hence no genuine ROI, no privatization.
...from nVidia with a new "response" GPU product..
AMD's inability to conduct meaningful R&D due to its financial distress is showing.
Who do you think you're kidding?
Your only entry point is your kiester, you self-kornholin' pumpwad.
Whose 14nm process will they use? Samsung's is fake 14nm. TSMC's is fake 16nm. Just look at the chip densities projected by these manufacturers. Not even close to real 14nm FINFET in logic density. More like a hypothetical Intel 20nm chip in density than a true 14nm product.
Besides AMD won't be around for volume shipment of Samsung fake 14nm even. It will be dead and buried before 2H 2016.
But instead they have had a Ruiz, Read and Su - the three stooges!
Heck AMD tried to find someone competent to take over from Dirk (who was competent) and it took them 6 months to lure choice #87 on their list, Rory Read, into the top slot. They also hired #117 pick, Lisa Su, and put her in charge of ensuring that they would NEVER make it in mobile.
AMD should have taken its own advice - "never settle". Both Read and Su represent settling very low.
Problem is Samsung's 14nm really isn't 14nm.
Instead Samsung got to 14nm in the same way TSMC reached 16nm. Bootstrapped. The 14nm Samsung and 16nm TSMC chips are much less dense than true 14nm Intel chips.
It's all marketing malarkey. No one. Not Samsung. Not TSMC. Not GF. No one, has invested enough to stay on the Moore's Law curve, besides Intel.
So they may advertise similar process but the reality is their chips due to closer to 20nm densities, will cost them many times more than Intel pays to make its chips, and will deliver only a fraction of the efficiency gains of doing it correctly.
Now that the independent benchmarks are out showing GeForce stomping Fury to red pulp even in 4k, I have to ask "what high end graphics"?
AMD has always depended on a relatively small segment of #$%$ loyalists for its survival. You know, much in the same way the GOP does?
At any rate, the products have now gotten so bad that even some of the #$%$ have wised up and switched to efficient, modern Maxwell GPUs. In fact the only reason any OEM spec's an AMD GPU these days is because AMD finds itself giving them away to avoid take-or-pay penalties with GF, inventory write-downs and the like.
It's getting to the point where only poor, ignorant third worlders and greedy OEMs will settle for AMD chips, albeit for opposite reasons.