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Analog Devices, Inc. Message Board

rorystreamer 112 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 28, 2015 7:22 PM Member since: Mar 11, 2013
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  • rorystreamer rorystreamer Jul 28, 2015 7:22 PM Flag

    The Peter J. Solomon Company can assist with finding suitable interested parties for a sale. However, the PR's that have been published only indicated that they are "seeking Financing." From the PR, "The retailer is exploring options that include negotiating with lenders to increase the amount it can borrow on its credit line, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. It’s the second time in five years the retailer has enlisted the firm to help boost its access to cash." That is a given to any company that is losing money q/q and y/y. I don't see their current creditor getting giving them favorable terms or what they are asking for. And if they reach out to, let's say a company like $HTGC, to receive a bridge loan to buy more time, they will get less favorable terms. We do not know the plan moving forward, so at this point, IMO, they needed to issue a PR about something. The only thing we learned is that they have publicly reached out to Peter J. Solomon Co. for help. We will see what they devise behind closed doors. I also think that from the last management shake-up, that no-one there knows what is going on. It seems there is non-existent talent running around in HB. I see a sale of the entire company to a larger company like NIKE or Under Armour that can buy this for pennies on the dollar & use their distribution channels while casting a broader net. At some point, I can see this becoming profitable under the right management team. I see value, I am in @ $0.68 I believe, not too much at all, but just a little to see what happens. If evidence supports a turnaround, I will be buying more and riding the wave! C'mon $ZQK let's finish the week off string and rally prior to earnings. I can see this heading to $0.75 if the good money starts buying. Obviously, there is many reasons for this trading at $0.50. So it is a pure spec play at this point. GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    What will stop the ZQK decline...

    by volcom356 Jul 27, 2015 10:58 AM
    rorystreamer rorystreamer Jul 27, 2015 5:18 PM Flag

    Something will happen this week. $ZQK will issue a PR.

    What that will say, who knows? But there is value with Roxy and DC. So I would expect an asset sale of 1 of the brands, possibility of them stating they hired a financial institution that will be finding potential suitors for a complete sale. Either way, expect a pop on the PR prior to earnings. And if... only if... they surprise investors, this will pop too. But if they don't, nothing you can. I will watch this one closely, it could go to $0.70 or $0.30... depending on what they decided to do. But as the new CEO, my personal opinion is that he didn't sign up for this job to publicly fail.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rorystreamer rorystreamer Jul 24, 2015 1:41 PM Flag

    short squeeze coming. $SD to pop

  • Reply to

    SD to the moon!

    by trmmara Jul 24, 2015 9:19 AM
    rorystreamer rorystreamer Jul 24, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    I am estimating the high end of $280M+. But may fall short in $260M range. I think overall it will sit well w investors and this goes back to $0.75 p/share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rorystreamer rorystreamer Jul 22, 2015 5:03 PM Flag

    That is the hard knocks of Wall Street my friend. You could not have picked a worse time to get into oil stocks. However, the silver lining is that all of the old timers are saying that buying oil stocks now are the generational buy. Meaning in 10 years most companies (that are still around) will have rebounded and you will reap the benefits of holding during that amount of time. But at 19, you need to make the mistakes now. When you get older and have kids, a mortgage etc. Losing that kind of money will have you sleeping on the sofa for a few weeks. So take it with a grain of salt. I am down in my position, not by too much nor have too much into this, but I see value. I wouldn't recommend holding $SD anymore or advising to close out, mainly because there are multiple scenarios that can play out and I want to pay to see what happens. $GPRO $AAPL $FB are solid plays (even at these levels). Just imagine when $AAPL becomes the 1st Trillion dollar company. I will have hopefully 1000 by then. But some good companies to look into: $OCN $BAC $TDW $ISR $ENZN $ZQK $GG $ABX $NEM $MITK $CYS $LOCO $HLT $AA $ARIA $MNKD $ARNA - I go on and on, but tons of value in the market now. GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    $SD - Now is the best time to BUY

    by rorystreamer Jul 22, 2015 3:25 PM
    rorystreamer rorystreamer Jul 22, 2015 4:50 PM Flag

    Agreed. This is a very ugly situation. Obviously there is multiple scenarios that can go down. I have not traded oil stocks and will admit that my DD is more along the surface level. But I am familiar with the past 12 months and understand how the PPS got from $7.02 p/Share on 7/3/14 to $0.49 on 7/22/15. My estimate for Q2 rev is $287M compared with $237M in Q1. Now that is on the optimistic high side and that number would bode well with investors. They will probably be in the $270M range, but if they can reduce capital expenditures the second half of the year and come in under $700M, that too will sit well with investors. Now this is speculation that $SD will move positively in the right direction. For a stock that has lost 95% of the PPS value, it is really hard to convince anyone until pertinent evidence exists for a valid argument. I only threw a few hundy on this as a pure spec play. I see value here and I can see multiple companies that can benefit from absorbing $SD as a whole for a great price. For a company that is still doing $200M-$300M p/quarter, I see value. Yes those numbers have been declining y/y, but it could be worse. Or better yet, continuing to get worse. For the most part, if the Oil industry rebounds so will the majority of the oil stocks. $SD, $PWE and $CHK are the ones I have decided to recently make some moves on. So we will see. I like placing a bet on the long horse, and I will be honest I only threw $250 at this. The rest of my portfolio is companies like $GPRO and $FB. I definitely follow the good money and have been buying as many shares I can afford and will not sell for a while. I will definitely be the guy that says, yup I got $FB at $30 p/share. And I have 1000. Ill do the same with $GPRO at $41. But back to $SD, pure spec play, I see some near-term action sending this back to $0.75 and then above $1. Will throw another $250 at it once I see some positive movement. But not in a rush to sell. Not yet. GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • There are many reasons for $SD losing the majority of the PPS as it stands at a mere $0.50 p/share. I took an interest in several struggling companies including $SD, $CHK and $PWE.
    SandRidge had break-even net income in the quarter, which was a penny ahead of expectations. On the other hand, revenue fell by 51% from a year ago, to $215.3 million, and short of consensus analyst estimates.
    Core production increased by 36% in the period, even though management continues to cut costs. SandRidge reduced its rig count by 80% in the quarter and will reduce quarterly capital spending to $100 million by the fourth quarter. The company has also hedged the remainder of its expected production for 2015 and has sufficient near-term liquidity, with no debt maturities coming due until the end of the decade.
    But what I found intriguing was what the CEO said on the last earnings call, "We continue to reduce activity as we wind down from a rig count of 35 at the close of 2014 to an average of seven rigs in the back half of 2015," President and CEO James Bennett said in a statement. "While we had capital expenditures of $322 million in the first quarter, we are reducing spending sharply in the second half of this year in line with our guidance of $700 million."
    With the company underperforming every index and rated a sell at pretty much every firm, I can see why. I also see management aggressively trying to reshape the balance sheet in one form or another so that they can sell the company as a whole to another company that can benefit. I am long $SD as a pure spec play. GLTA.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SD an enigma

    by keen7447 Jul 16, 2015 2:37 PM
    rorystreamer rorystreamer Jul 16, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    If your investment is to get in now, that is a good spec play. There are a few that I am playing in this sector, $SD, $PWE and $CHK. There are some other battled stocks as well that could be a good spec play, $TDE, $USO, $COH, $PIR, $ZQK. But with $SD, its tough to say. There are multiple factors that come in to play. My thesis getting in now around $0.70 is banking on the oil turnaround with a 3 year hold. I am taking small positions in $SD, $PWE and $CHK and letting them sit for a while unless of course some evidence comes to light that the only way is down in which I'll cut my losses and move on. But I do see value with $SD and with the sector moving upwards so will $SD. So we shall see. GLTA. Pure spec play. But if you have been holding, I suggest to wait and see before unloading.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SD an enigma

    by keen7447 Jul 16, 2015 2:37 PM
    rorystreamer rorystreamer Jul 16, 2015 3:10 PM Flag

    If your investment is to get in now, that is a good spec play. There are a few that I am playing in this sector, $SD, $PWE and $CHK. There are some other battled stocks as well that could be a good spec play, $TDE, $USO, $COH, $PIR, $ZQK. But with $SD, its tough to say. There are multiple factors that come in to play. My thesis getting in now around $0.70 is banking on the oil turnaround with a 3 year hold. I am taking small positions in $SD, $PWE and $CHK and letting them sit for a while unless of course some evidence comes to light that the only way is down in which I'll cut my losses and move on. But I do see value with $SD and with the sector moving upwards so will $SD. So we shall see. GLTA. Pure spec play. But if you have been holding, I suggest to wait and see before unloading.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stay High

    by mass_murderer_che_guevara Jun 26, 2015 12:55 PM
    rorystreamer rorystreamer Jun 26, 2015 3:00 PM Flag

    Highly unlikely as I will be there in LB for agenda and know some of the employees. Quik has value, mgmt. has clearly done a poor job in past 24 months. You will see news on direction soon. I have no clue as to what may happen. But there is value there, I am anticipating chatter about the sale of the entire company or selling a brand before they start talking about BK. Delisting is a current issue with no guidance. I will wait for the PR and see how that goes. In at $0.68 for pure spec play that this gets bought out for a lot more than $0.68.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rorystreamer by rorystreamer Jun 22, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    Now that we have reversed from the bad earnings call and CEO being replaced, I am confident the current mgmt. team has implemented a plan to move forward. What is the plan? No clue. Some sort of PR or update will be coming soon. I expect a sale of the company or assets being sold before dilution or worse case scenario filing BK. We should see this run up past a buck in the meantime with short interest up and as soon as some start to cover, the rest will not be taking the gamble and will cover as well. This is a better situation for longs if you got in from $0.52 -$0.68 range. Pure spec play that can result in doubling your investment. Of course will be monitoring throughout, once I hear something that doesn't resonate I am out. GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Friday in the Water

    by gdelv45 Jun 18, 2015 3:45 PM
    rorystreamer rorystreamer Jun 18, 2015 5:11 PM Flag

    Well from a technical point of view with the various MDA's, not too sure as I have not looked into that aspect. But on May 29,2015 the short interest was a staggering 25% of the float, 29,724,848 to be exact with 26 days to cover. That puts an expiration date of June 24th. Not caught up on the recent put and call contracts, but in my opinion this is complete speculation at this point as to which direction this will go. What I think is a very important piece to the puzzle is that Ryan Drexler, president and shareholder of Consac, LLC, has called for Quiksilver Inc. ZQK, to immediately explore options to sell the company twice in 2 months, as operating income and the share price continue to plummet. Mr. Drexler's Consac owns in excess of 3.5 million shares of Quiksilver. Owning that many shares of company performing poorly on all levels is a tough pill to swallow. Being that they published this information, plus the mgmt. shakeup, there must be an end to all of this very soon. I have said this before, but no CEO willingly takes the helm knowing that his main job will be to file BK, that just won't happen. No one would hire that guy if that was the case. Being with ZQK for not even a quarter, it does take time to allow the BOD to strategically observe their options and potentially reach out to either a financial institution for options. I believe that is what is happening behind closed doors. Unfortunately, on paper this is a disaster. Revs are decreasing y/y and mgmt. obviously has had issues turning this pig around. The value is there. Potential suitors such as $NKE and $UA could certainly benefit from purchasing $ZQK as a whole. However, breaking it down piece by piece is an options, as well as dilution and BK. Once the PR comes out I will be long or short depending on the content. For now, big risk vs big reward, in @ $0.68 long for now. GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WEDNESDAY TRADE

    by gdelv45 Jun 17, 2015 11:58 AM
    rorystreamer rorystreamer Jun 18, 2015 1:54 PM Flag

    You always wonder why is it this low and being this low, can it go lower? I thought $ZQK trading under $2 was a good bet. Rode the last rally up to $2.20 before cashing out and putting elsewhere. So watching this from the sidelines, I was certainly willing to get these shares at $0.68. Missed by about $0.10 but now it has reversed and still waiting for PR to officially get the rally started. It could however fall back into limbo and the shorts will take this down again and wipe out recent gains, but no one has a clue as to what they will be planning on doing moving forward. I like the risk at these levels, it is a pure spec play. GLTA hopefully we get some b/o rumors circulating.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Many speculate that $UA or $NKE would benefit by consuming the struggling Huntington Beach based company Quiksilver (ZQK) that owns brands such as DC and Roxy. Being that this is a lucrative and profitable space (both Globally and Domestic) amongst age groups ranging from children to young/mid adults, both male and female, $ZQK is hitting a 52-week low and all time lows (PPS $0.60 p/share 6/17/15) the need for a sale is imminent. This will happen...unfortunately it will be a sale, asset sale, dilution, going private or filing BK. $ZQK is still pulling in over $300M p/quarter, and yes revenues are decreasing y/y and recently the current mgmt. replaced the CEO and current CEO withdrew that CEO's forecast for the year, but nonetheless there is value here. A lot has happened in the last 24 months, but that has been factored into the current PPS. Strong buy $ZQK, $NKE, $UA. This article has not been published.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    debt level

    by wagaboom Jun 17, 2015 1:23 AM
    rorystreamer rorystreamer Jun 17, 2015 5:11 PM Flag

    The CEO would never take the job to file BK. Would you? Neither would I. Listen, there are multiple options and filing BK is certainly one of them, but also the last choice IMO. I am sure they have spoken to some investment banks in generating the beginning stages of putting this company up for sale. With that also comes the talks about selling off one of the brands. Depending on their overall goal, you would think this comes sooner than later. Hopefully they don't try and do this all on their own and revive the company to get back to it's glory days. I think the damage is done. Now the leading advocate Drexler needs to write some more letters and show up at the corporate office in HB and throw a Jerry Maguire fit lol! But in all serious, BK is the easiest way out also the messiest. So no one will want to do that and have it on the resume. That guy will never act as CEO again if he threw in the towel and said "Yup this is too hard, lets BK this Pig!" not a chance. Atleast not yet. I'll play this conservatively and take the positive PR's, the dead cat bounce, the small rally or what have you and then decide then if I don't see any rumors surface. GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hold for the Jump-Back Boogaloo

    by gdelv45 Jun 16, 2015 3:00 PM
    rorystreamer rorystreamer Jun 17, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    You have 2 choices bet against the company or bet long on the company.

    I can't imagine throwing too much money on going long, as EVERYTHING is speculation at this point. But looking at distressed companies in general, you can decipher what still retains value and what is simply face value. $ZQK still has value, and even though revenues are decreasing y/y, they are still bringing in $300M+ p/Q. Another company such as Nike or Under Armour, who have ample room to benefit from $ZQK's brands, will most likely succeed by purchasing the company as a whole. With smaller, private equity firms that purchase distressed companies like $ZQK, this will not be as glamorous as waking up and finding that $NKE is buying $ZQK for $2 p/share per-say. So there is no real good advice to give with $ZQK as this is purely a gamble. If you want a safe play, try $BAC or $F, even $FB or $APPL, I like $MU at these levels, love $GPRO (as that is my largest holding) and $LOCO... this company with expansions in Utah and Texas (eventually the east coast) will be generating a lot more than $90M p/quarter. Expect $LOCO to simulate $SONC's chart. In 2011, $SONC expanded to the west coast and the PPS was treading at $6-$7. Now it is has grown 3-fold and the PPS is $30. I see $LOCO at $40 by end of 2016. But with $ZQK, its a spec play. I am long, I think that $0.68 p/share is a great price to pay looking at all of the published information. Sale is most likely in my opinion, however I have made some good calls and I have been completely wrong. But I do think that when you break down the last 24 months, $ZQK should be doing $200M p/quarter at this PPS. This was tattered by the street, I'll float some change to see what happens. GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    WEDNESDAY TRADE

    by gdelv45 Jun 17, 2015 11:58 AM
    rorystreamer rorystreamer Jun 17, 2015 4:50 PM Flag

    This company still has some value as well as debt. Drexler being their biggest advocate for a sale may get his wish. However, if you are in this stock at an avg of $2 and are waiting this out, not sure how much the sale will generate given the future of this company is unknown. Selling assets may be another solution as well as dilution to reinstate a plan and execute it. Not sure that the street wants to hear a new plan to save the company. So you will see a SALE of the company or SALE of DC. But they will avoid BK as much as possible. Nasdaq listing requirement maintaining a PPS of $1 or more will become an issue eventually, but you should see some positive PR soon. Management will come out and speak soon. They cant let this go below $0.50. I got in @ $0.68 p/share, betting on Buyout and positive PR to get this back to $1. Risk vs Reward place your bets. GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    LOCO,,,Some NEWS.................

    by cat_tracker_2000 Jun 15, 2015 8:30 AM
    rorystreamer rorystreamer Jun 15, 2015 1:12 PM Flag

    LOCO is very similar to Sonic. in 2011 the weather was affecting the East Coast pretty heavily and one of my analysts had Buffalo Wild Wings and Sonic on his hot list due to the fact that you were going to see same store restaurant sales decline that particular quarter revenues were recorded. That crazy weather did in fact effect revenues as it literally prevented people going out. So with that said, $SONC was trading at $7 and at that time they said they were expanding to the West Coast, particularly California where they say if you can make it here (In CA) you can make it anywhere. Point being, $LOCO is based in CA. As they expand to the mid-west and east coast, all of the stores will be brand new implementing the new menu and new training. So based on the current response in Texas, I'd say the PPS for LOCO doing $90M a Quarter is great @ $20 p/share. Once they roll out 200 more stores, revenues will be in the $200M+ with more stores being added y/y. This one is too easy. Load up for a generational buy.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    IF YOU SEE THIS BELOW 50 CENTS

    by ubank_1999 Jun 11, 2015 6:04 PM
    rorystreamer rorystreamer Jun 12, 2015 1:12 PM Flag

    The good news is that the bad news has already been disclosed and there is some support at the $0.65-$0.70 range. With any bad call and earnings report, ZQK mgmt. team knows the urgency for some PR that will boost the confidence of investors. IMO you will see some interested parties seeing value there and then it just comes down to the details as ZQK will not give it away. Hopefully the new CEO can negotiate this sale as a whole and not piece it out, that would be a circus and most likely will not bode well with the streets expectations. There is just a lot going on with this company and nothing is positive...but that is the risk. In yesterday and looking for near-term rally and b/o news. We shall see. GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    bk the only way out now......

    by ubank_1999 Jun 10, 2015 4:15 PM
    rorystreamer rorystreamer Jun 11, 2015 4:58 PM Flag

    I don't agree. I don't think a buyout is a pipe dream at all. BK is certainly a probability, some may think it is a high probability, but none the less it is just probable and speculation at this point. Would you take the Quiksilver CEO position to file BK? I wouldn't and neither would you. The point is to turn this PIG around, right? You will see (2) scenarios guaranteed. One, you will hear a plan on how they can turn this around and become profitable in 2nd half of 2016 early 2017. If that plan fails, filing BK will most likely happen as mgmt. will have made it worse and a potential suitor will not want to clean up more of the mess. Or two, they decide we cannot pursue a plan to recover, so let's sell an asset, go private, sell the entire company etc. which would happen sooner than later. But as for just filing BK as the new CEO, he would be mocked and laughed by all of his peers. But a viable option for sure, and every shareholder should be aware of this happening. Quiksilver is synonymous with Surfing, an iconic brand and household name. I am sure some European investment group would entertain crunching the numbers, as well as a few other private equity firms that can buy this penny's on the dollar and make a profit down the line. Tons of options at this point. But I am going with their leading shareholder Drexler and the urgency to sell immediately. I will take $2.20 p/share for everything all said and done. Anyways, I am in and you are not. So we shall see.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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