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Stanley Furniture Co. Inc. Message Board

rosen62 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 4, 2014 9:38 PM Member since: Mar 26, 2001
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  • Thank you, ole' CT.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rosen62 rosen62 Feb 5, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    ARCH guidance...

    Arch expects U.S. thermal coal markets to tighten further in 2014, with favorable weather trends and healthier economic activity driving increased power demand. In addition, elevated natural gas prices compared with prior years should ensure that western coals -- as well as most eastern coals -- are competitively priced for power generation.

    Even with growth in U.S. coal supply, Arch projects additional drawdown on coal stockpiles during 2014. If such a drop in stockpiles occurs, coal inventories at thermal customers would fall to levels not seen since 2005.

    While thermal markets are gaining momentum, global metallurgical coal markets remain weak. However, seaborne metallurgical prices are likely at unsustainably low levels, making it difficult to justify ongoing and new capital investment. While new global metallurgical coal supply entered the market during 2013 and must be absorbed, incremental production increases going forward should be largely offset by rationalization of higher-cost metallurgical supply. These trends should tighten metallurgical markets in the future

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Congrats to those holding.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rosen62 rosen62 Feb 12, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    ANR from today's release...

    On the commercial front, unseasonably cold temperatures in North America over the last several weeks resulted in natural gas pricing above $5/MMBtu, increasing activity and setting firmer prices for near-term domestic thermal coal markets.

    Thermal Coal
    While thermal pricing remains challenging in relation to production costs, there have been positive developments.

    First, domestic utility inventories dropped significantly in 2013 as coal burn increased more than 5%, or nearly 45 mln tons, compared with 2012. Overall domestic inventory declined from 188.9 mln tons at the end of 2012 to 150.5 mln tons as of Dec 31, 2013. The decreasing inventory levels point to improving supply/demand dynamics, which should lead to healthier market conditions in the near to intermediate-term. However, pricing currently remains constrained in both the PRB and Northern Appalachia.

    Second, prompt natural gas prices have increased substantially since early 2013 when it was trading in the low $3 per MMBtu range to a high of over $5 recently. Combined with lower coal inventory levels, there has been near-term price firmness in most regions, especially in Central Appalachia (CAPP), where prices, as measured by NYMEX, have risen ~10% between late November to late Jan.

    "Third, as we approach announced 2015 plant closures due to EPA regulations, such as MATS (Mercury and Air Toxics Standards), it is becoming increasingly common for utilities to voice their concerns about grid reliability issues as an unintended consequence of environmental regulations. There is speculation that some power grid operators will designate additional plants, such as the Brayton Point power plant in Massachusetts, as "must run" facilities."

    Overall, the outlook for thermal coal markets is more constructive compared with a few months ago.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    yeah... nothing

    by bluekat696 Feb 12, 2014 4:59 AM
    rosen62 rosen62 Feb 12, 2014 11:52 AM Flag

    Waiting for news regarding coverage and reimbursement. CEO said between December and end of January. Mr Reali! We are here waiting!

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    AT THIS PRICE... IT'S a hold

    by raymondcbs Feb 12, 2014 11:53 AM
    rosen62 rosen62 Feb 12, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    The deal is not good.

    The dividend is cumulative so if they ever stop paying this, dividends will accrue forever. A huge burden if problems arise down the road leaving common equity in the doldrums. Given gold price and current prospects this is not favorable for common shares. It also speaks of desperation. An 8% interest rate is very high draining more resources to convert holders.

  • You promised end of January!

  • rosen62 rosen62 Feb 13, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    1.21. This is a risky bet. EMMS moving finally.

  • Goldman in SC 13G 7.7%

  • Reply to

    Next Radio/Sprint Agreement looks funky...

    by fabulouspoodle Jan 9, 2014 8:37 AM
    rosen62 rosen62 Feb 13, 2014 10:37 PM Flag

    I don't own anr. I own oxf which has 19 sites in northern and central appalachian and is a low cost thermal producer.

  • Reply to

    Low volume,low float coal play..

    by running2fall Feb 14, 2014 8:33 AM
    rosen62 rosen62 Feb 17, 2014 10:54 AM Flag

    First, they need to survive.
    Second, any capital infusion may have to leave equity in a good spot. There are ways.
    Third, any advance in coal prices must be sustainable.
    Fourth, for longer term appreciation reinstatement of dividends must be realistic.

    I'd say if in the next few quarters bankruptcy is off the table the price could jump. But forget about a 20 bagger for a long time. Perhaps, forever.

  • Reply to

    Low volume,low float coal play..

    by running2fall Feb 14, 2014 8:33 AM
    rosen62 rosen62 Feb 21, 2014 1:00 AM Flag

    Should the recovery in thermal coal prices prove to be sustainable there is the chance that a white knight may show up and align itself with equity. It's a big gamble but we will know soon. The closer we get to an industry turnaround the lesser the chances this will go belly up.

  • "The surge in demand for coal from U.S. power plants is pushing up coal prices, and coal is by far the biggest cargo carried on U.S. rails, accounting for 41% of all rail tonnage and 21% of rail gross revenue; J.P Morgan argues that at some point, coal should provide a positive catalyst for railroad company stocks since it accounts for so much of their revenue."

  • Emmis is forecasting a 12% to 15% increase in health-care advertising this year, and up to 20% of that is expected to come from ACA-related advertising from insurers, hospitals and state-government agencies, Patrick Walsh, chief financial officer at Emmis, said in an interview.

    The Indianapolis-based company's two biggest markets are New York and California, both states that have rolled out health exchanges. Mr. Walsh said Emmis's biggest radio stations are the hip-hop-music Power 106 and Hot 97, which target young, urban minorities. "Our audience is an attractive target for the exchanges," he noted.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Healthcare related advertising

    by rosen62 Feb 25, 2014 2:47 PM
    rosen62 rosen62 Feb 27, 2014 3:45 PM Flag

    Thanks. They report Tue. We'll see. I am tempted to buy more but will wait confirmation after the CC. The lack of demand worries me a bit. I like BAXS. Bought a bunch at around $1.36.

  • Reply to

    Why the insider selling last week?

    by mcaplan2006 Mar 1, 2014 8:38 AM
    rosen62 rosen62 Mar 1, 2014 4:25 PM Flag

    Do you mean Cummings selling 28,984 shares out of 6,429.2398 he owns? Or Smulyan selling 49,300 out of 8,441.4075 he owns? Or Loewen exercising and selling some stock options? Looks like peanuts. Maybe paying for taxes.

  • Reply to

    Healthcare related advertising

    by rosen62 Feb 25, 2014 2:47 PM
    rosen62 rosen62 Mar 1, 2014 4:35 PM Flag

    I don't obsess about price too much unless it runs hard out of the comfort zone. I started lower but even on Friday I added 5k. I have 85k shares and will keep buying as good news or more information percolates. Even if it goes lower I may buy more. I would like to get to 120k to 150k shares. I always buy an initial stake and sit on it. Then, if I feel the time is right and numbers support my view I scale in. But it may take days, weeks or even months. Then, I sit on my hands.

    I believe in the procedures these medical gadgets are for. My mother died recently of C1/C2 cancer and I became familiar with spinal decompression, fusion and related minimal invasion interventions. Talked to many doctors in the US and her own country.

    BAXS is a tiny player with much larger competitors. However, in a growing segment there is a chance that benefits trickle-down. Given their size there is risk here. But I do not mind making mistakes. I shoot to avoid making too many altogether.

  • Reply to

    Healthcare related advertising

    by rosen62 Feb 25, 2014 2:47 PM
    rosen62 rosen62 Mar 3, 2014 5:27 PM Flag

    I have no idea. I usually plan on long term investing. The longer, the better. And I bail when that vision evaporates.

  • In spite of the headlines last quarter was not a catastrophe.

    Two things to note: a) guidance was stable with a glimmer of hope in that production and revs may increase due to potential pent-up demand, b) winding and idling the Illinois basin operations is a good move. NAPP coal is superior to Illinois basin and today's spot prices are markedly different $68.65 vs $46.65.

    In general, despite poor pricing business appears stable if not solid.

    It may not run this year but with a little GDP pick up later this year the stock might start to move. There is also the potential to bring in some additional cash from asset sales (3 mill approx from CC). Nothing in the cards appears to be saying imminent bankruptcy. I will continue to buy this totally boring stock while the company is still losing money.

    Remember too. Warren Buffet's railroad purchase relies to a great extent in coal transportation. Coal will simply not disappear and usage may have reached a bottom last year.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Why is the stock only up 20 cents or so...

    by longtimefollower Mar 5, 2014 11:03 AM
    rosen62 rosen62 Mar 5, 2014 3:05 PM Flag

    From 8k- 9/4/2012
    "The holders of Preferred Stock remain entitled to convert their shares of Preferred Stock into shares of Class A Common Stock at a rate of 2.44 shares of Class A Common Stock for each share of Preferred Stock at any time at the option of the holder." Conversion price of $20.495 per share of Preferred Stock,

    The preferred shares have been reclassified as permanent equity. Diluted net income counts the converted preferred shares series A. Last 10Q states $46.4 million of Preferred Stock liquidation preference.

    Last year they bought some at

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