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USG Corporation Message Board

roulette16 1 post  |  Last Activity: Oct 10, 2014 1:47 PM Member since: Sep 10, 1999
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  • Reply to

    As investors, do we need oil prices to rise?

    by iahphx Oct 10, 2014 8:16 AM
    roulette16 roulette16 Oct 10, 2014 1:47 PM Flag

    You are mistaken, and iahphx is correct. I've been commenting on the same fact recently. Check out the six-month AAL versus USO chart, and you'll see that as USO gradually rose, AAL took off, and as USO recently crashed AAL went right along with it. USO's moves are more muted, but there is absolutely a correlation over the most recent short -term - out to about six months or so, despite the fact that it makes no rational sense.

    I'll bet the major airlines all report excellent quarters on the back of reduced fuel costs, and probably raise guidance just like UAL recently did. I suspect that will result in a significant short-term bounce off such oversold levels, but what happens after that - a few days or weeks later - is anyone's guess, as fundamentals will probably be trumped by global macro events, just like they are now.

    - Roulette

27.15+0.56(+2.11%)Dec 18 4:02 PMEST

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