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Pfizer Inc. Message Board

royco 34 posts  |  Last Activity: May 2, 2016 4:20 AM Member since: Jun 24, 2000
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  • Reply to

    SPIL Tsinghua

    by conversionworrier Apr 29, 2016 10:28 AM
    royco royco May 2, 2016 4:20 AM Flag

    Initially, as posted previously, my thoughts as well re :IMOS/Tsinghua approval, smallest of deals of the 3,
    seemed if any got approved it would be this one

    It still comes down to "appearances for politics" imo, and the new Taiwan leadership comes in this month with the CC, I'd like to see it approved but for FV purposes it should realistically not be a problem either way.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SPIL Tsinghua

    by conversionworrier Apr 29, 2016 10:28 AM
    royco royco May 1, 2016 1:39 AM Flag


    On Friday, while awaiting going overseas, perhaps one of the few lone long termers here who added as the price kept dropping. The recent monthly reports seemed stronger than C-Bond, and Mngmt.'s continued refusal to even respond to their supposed "lawyering" on a buyback of IMOS, coupled with SPIL'S termination of Tsingua and Apple's crunch down left retailers with plenty of more reasons to bale.

    Saw Hedgehog, another guy I respect, opine that all 3 Tsinghua deals would be approved or none at all. We'll soon see how Taiwan's new leadership affects that with IMOS, but if Guidance stays decent a pop is reasonable to expect from this approximate level.

    Lincoln's. birthday collapse was clearly a great opportunity, now it seems like a good one, risk vs. reward. 8150’s drop still has plenty of coverage/protection for even short term trade, and low volume shows the big boys, esp. BAUPOST, the silent disappointing leader, are in the game as before.
    That conversion-based derivative dividend is sorely awaited, and ex-dividend imo the stock price does not return to pre-ex levels.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    IMOS and 8150 buybacks

    by qksha Apr 24, 2016 7:33 PM
    royco royco Apr 25, 2016 10:21 AM Flag

    Think you left out the word "NOT".

  • Reply to


    by conversionworrier Apr 13, 2016 4:41 AM
    royco royco Apr 22, 2016 10:54 AM Flag

    Agree on most points, a little concern with China in general, although tech there is a better play for the next few quarters than heavy industry/construction imo.

    Traction on the upside would be nice to see. Interesting how the stock price moves parabolically like today, initial one-timer, like a slap shot, surge of volume, then nothing; chart-wise it keeps reinforcing day-traders M.O. of picking up some shares after stagnation, then dump after little to no follow-through.

    Actually got some more this week @$17.27 (previously failed at $17.20) but until this breaks through $18 with volume, it still will lag on the fundamental side of valuation. Bid/ask now the 60's/70's.

    One other observation, (probably worth little): Imos often climbs on down NAZ days, recedes on market upswings, once again no rhyme or reason except those few who know this story seem to pull away as soon as Markets ascend towards high end of 52 wk. range. NAZ now down over 70 pts., has to pull down most stocks in the tech sector somewhat. AMD finally hit a blast today, Googl crushed, Appl, Intc, down,
    Gold stocks up (helping) Imos up.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to


    by conversionworrier Apr 13, 2016 4:41 AM
    royco royco Apr 22, 2016 7:24 AM Flag

    Saw where CHIPBOND took another tumble, within 6% of its 52 week low, has traded between 58 and around 42 since August. ChipMOS down to 30, has approximately traded in a range between 35 and 30 since August, mostly on very low volume. The spreads are the only evidence that IMOS is a plus holding its own.

    It is unclear whether this is all Taiwan industry jitters or doubt about $40twd Tsinghua 25% buy-in, due to host of factors .......including worsening Press reports between Mainland and Taiwan, including the latest negative involving recent deportations of Criminal Conspirators from Africa, both Taiwanese and Chinese, but right now the "leaders" of this company had better clear things up at the micro level, at the CC, or they should be held accountable for the macro-exposure drop in shareholder value.

    We will be overseas at the CC; if shareholders don't call in and ask what the hell happened to the "buyback" review by the "leaders and their legal wizards" it is time for analysts to ask hard questions about the conversion and dividend outlook.

    Specificity is needed as parity drops, volume remains paltry, even yesterday with last minute pop. Next options expiry of May 20, post CC, lacks proof of conviction, shows execs have sown market doubt due to their arrogant refusal to say anything between CCs.

    Patience is a hard virtue with these "guys", (can't get into name calling), trading the swings, selling some calls, only takes into account how lost opportunity since last Summer provided way to make some money due to utter failures at the Exec and BoD levels.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    May Earnings Call....

    by kapy15 Apr 14, 2016 9:47 AM
    royco royco Apr 15, 2016 11:13 AM Flag

    It appears all are holding the towel.

    Be interested to hear a more definitive opinion from anyone on when the div declaration for 8150 is expected, and the ex-date. This can affect those who've bought Sept. calls, some of which were at $25.

    I still feel today's options expiration is affecting the short-term close; $20 Calls sold are clearly expiring worthless.

    "Bob (one of many)" previously brought up the "$17.50's" expiration game, and today's lack of any trading, while right around that strike price reinforces my belief that Monday onward, towards the CC will show a pick-up in volume and volatility.

    Also, April revs should come out just before the CC, if not at that date, since these guys seem to enjoy
    holding back anything where possible.

    It still seems reasonable that the Conversion moves forward as large holders stay quiet on the sidelines,
    and Tsinghua's 25% buy-in closes before any deal with larger OSATs, let alone chip manufacturers. Jmo.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Tsinghua asks for approval of ChipMOS deal

    by jamcracker25 Apr 10, 2016 5:48 AM
    royco royco Apr 10, 2016 9:17 AM Flag

    Thanks for update, always thought this is the most likely of the 3 Tsinghua buy-ins to get approved sooner rather than later. Question of timing persists with inauguration of new leader next month. Maybe powers that be will see Imos deal is small potatoes, but perception can trump reality when it comes to politics,

    Meanwhile Friday's close, though hitting $18.09 within 10 minutes of close, @$18.02 was right at 100dma, all at well above 10 day avg. daily volume. Technicals can indicate trend/resistance, next Friday's $20 call options seem a long shot once again. Would love, once again, for buyers' sake, to be proven wrong.

    Taiwan's Friday the 13th (U.S.' Thursday, May 12th evening) CC next chance for execs to
    obfuscate and supposed "buyback" review by the legal wizards was non-existent. Shocking!

    Dealing with it by trading here and there soothes some of the frustration, including Klarman's
    and other funds' virtual silence.

    Still see weeks, a few months for climbing stock price to FV parity (vs years, as in past.).
    Just the optimist in me.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    March Revenue

    by jamcracker25 Apr 5, 2016 1:51 PM
    royco royco Apr 8, 2016 7:25 AM Flag

    " Hope th company finally breaks above $50 million in monthly revenue - something they have not posted since June 2015."
    GMs above high end, vey good report all around.

    8150 is just not trading, and this exceedingly nice qrtly report
    Seems to not have been leaked imho.

    Still appreciate Jaret's "concerns" on how management
    has failed to act. Hey SJ, SK, Lawyers for the BoD, how's that "buyback" review going?

    But take good news over disappointment when long,

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • royco royco Mar 23, 2016 12:24 PM Flag

    We all deal with their shareholder unfriendly M.O. in different ways. The lack of an open-ended buyback yesterday during the big sell-off by one holder was the basis for adding, as posted yesterday, at exactly $16.70, in the trading portion of an account, and just cashed it out. Decided to stop waiting to try and make some cash when the stock price stays in the lower end of a limited trading range.

    Now were they to surprise us and announce a sustained buyback program, like hundreds of publicly owned companies do regularly, a climb to FV would kick in way before May or June or July, but without major holders' pressure, doubt it gets done. The huge spread with illiquid 8150 remains, even after today's rebound.

    I know my email did not even evoke any response, as expected, so it's time to benefit from their arrogance when trading opportunity strikes.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • royco royco Mar 23, 2016 8:59 AM Flag

    ASE deal with SPIL now officially "put on hold" by TFTC, ASE understandably not thrilled, love how they recite in the PR Being "baffled". Tell them to join our club re: IMOS Mngmt.'s utter failure to release our Millions.

    "Response to the TFTC's Decision to Suspend Review of ASE-SPIL Combination
    PR Newswire Advanced Semiconductor Engineering, Inc.
    1 hour ago"

    "TAIPEI, Taiwan, March 23, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Advanced Semiconductor Engineering, Inc. (TAIEX: 2311, NYSE: ASX) ("ASE" or "we" ) noted today that the Taiwan Fair Trade Commission ("TFTC") has decided to suspend its review of the proposed combination between ASE and Siliconware Precision Industries Co., Ltd. ("SPIL"). We deeply regret and are extremely baffled by the TFTC's decision, which is completely without legal basis and violates the TFTC's own administrative precedents.

    In order to respond to the intense and constant changes in the global semiconductor industry, as well as to ensure the sustained development of the Taiwanese semiconductor packaging and testing supply chain, we will continue with our plan to acquire 100% equity interest in SPIL through all legally permissible means and avenues."

    Cashed out some short term profits on MU yesterday and added here on Seller's bail-out, right before the close, also sold some May calls. SJ and SK, are you really going to ignore everyone until mid-May? 2 weeks ago you were to look into a buyback authorization. Cat got your tongue?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • royco royco Mar 22, 2016 10:11 AM Flag

    I-is-G, Agree, the filing only adjusted upwards the "non-controlling" interest share, no financial impact; many here probably received notification early yesterday morning.

    Today's drop imo speaks to the stagnant say-nothing, do-nothing attitude of the execs. Seems like another mngmt.-related buying opportunity.

    Nice if these guys would do something easy and logical to stop all these "opportunities".

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Chipmos website China presentation on page 20.

    by caffeine444444 Mar 11, 2016 10:58 AM
    royco royco Mar 17, 2016 6:43 AM Flag

    ASE tender offer for SPIL fails, story not over:
    TAIPEI, Taiwan, March 17, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Advanced Semiconductor Engineering, Inc. (TWSE Code: 2311, NYSE Code: ASX) ("ASE") announced today that the tender offer by ASE for common shares (including common shares represented by American depositary shares) of Siliconware Precision Industries Co., Ltd. ("SPIL"), launched on December 29, 2015, was unsuccessful due to failure to satisfy the tender offer conditions, as ASE did not receive approval from the Taiwan Fair Trade Commission ("FTC") for the proposed combination between ASE and SPIL before the expiration of the tender offer. Over 27.57% of SPIL shareholders participated in this tender offer. ASE sincerely thanks all members of various fields who supported this tender offer, particularly all SPIL shareholders who participated in this tender offer. ASE deeply regrets not being able to purchase shares from all participating SPIL shareholders due to the FTC not approving the proposed combination before the expiration date of this tender offer. ASE has instructed its tender agents to return all shares to participating SPIL shareholders as soon as possible.

    Currently, the Taiwanese semiconductor packaging and testing industry is facing an unprecedented and intense challenge. Semiconductor businesses of other countries and regions -- both integrated device manufacturers ("IDMs") and outsourced assembly and test ("OSAT") companies -- have dramatically improved their global competitiveness through large-scale mergers and acquisitions, and certain players have arisen in the global market with significant support from the government. ASE deeply believes that, only if Taiwanese packaging and testing peers form a national team to face numerous current challenges through the active integration of resources and response to government policies, can the Taiwanese packaging and testing industry maintain its competitive advantage. ASE's acquisition of an equity interest in SPIL was aimed at seeking cooperation with SPIL in order to consolidate both parties' resources and excellent teams. In so doing, both parties could grasp the opportunity of next-generation packaging and testing technologies, welcome the arrival of the "Internet of things" and miniaturization, and jointly create a new blue ocean for the Taiwanese packaging and testing industry against a backdrop of intensifying competition in the global semiconductor industry from IDMs and OSATs.

    During the tender offer period, ASE listened with an open mind to the opinions and recommendations expressed by individuals from all walks of society, and hereby makes the following four statements:

    ASE's determination to seek integration with SPIL has not changed; after obtaining the FTC's approval, ASE expects to continue seeking the support of SPIL shareholders in order to complete the acquisition of 100% equity interest in SPIL.
    ASE's promise to maintain SPIL's legal entity status, legal entity name, current employee benefits, work conditions and personnel regulations, and retain the current SPIL management team and all employees with the utmost good faith to protect their employment right, has not changed.
    In order to realize ASE's promise to maintain its roots in Taiwan, integrate the industry, innovate technology, and look after SPIL employees, suppliers and industry partners, concurrent with the acquisition of SPIL, ASE will plan to establish an industrial holding company in Taiwan. In the future, the industrial holding company will separately hold 100% equity interests in both ASE and SPIL, both of which shall retain their legal entity status, allowing ASE and SPIL to become parallel sibling companies under the same holding company, and at the same time jointly creating a platform for mutual benefit that maintains the current operating model of the two companies. The newly established industrial holding company will be listed in Taiwan (and the American depositary shares of the new holding company will be listed in the U.S.) and all current operations of ASE and SPIL in Taiwan will be maintained. ASE will invite, in utmost good faith, Chairman Lin and President Tsai of SPIL to join the board of the industrial holding company and jointly manage the industrial holding company with ASE's management team. In addition, they will continue to serve as chairman and president of SPIL, respectively, and lead the current SPIL management team to look after all SPIL employees as well partners in the up-, mid- and downstream industry chain.
    Driven by the twin engines of ASE and SPIL's packaging and testing, the newly established industrial holding company can be expected to strengthen resource consolidation in Taiwan's current semiconductor packaging and testing and related industries and become a new innovation platform for the industry. By drawing on the strength of up-, mid- and downstream businesses in the semiconductor packaging and testing industry, it can face the challenges posed by intense changes in the global semiconductor landscape.
    Faced with new competition in the greater environment and the major decision of the industry's future development, ASE sincerely calls upon individuals from all walks of domestic society to adopt a macro perspective and soberly view the impact of development trends in the global semiconductor industry on the Taiwanese packaging and testing industry. Integration of the Taiwanese packaging and testing industry is both necessary and timely. The merger between ASE and SPIL is neither a fight for management rights nor an act of impulse, but rather a critical question of survival for the entire Taiwanese semiconductor packaging and testing supply chain. Founding a business is not easy, but conserving what has been established is even more difficult. ASE's management team deeply believes that simply maintaining the status quo and reaping the fruit of our predecessor's labor is not a currently acceptable option.

    Based on our determination for sustained operation in Taiwan, as well as our promise to look after the families of tens of thousands of Taiwanese employees, ASE chose to take the first step in integration. We also hoped our tender offer could stimulate the industry's integration, generate complementary synergy, and help the future development of the Taiwanese semiconductor industry reach a new high point in terms of enhanced efficiency, economic scale, and depth of research and development and innovation. Even though the process of integration has its challenges and difficulties, building on past success is our joint responsibility and society's expectation. ASE sincerely hopes that SPIL and ASE can jointly create the glory of Taiwan, so that a brighter day may soon arrive for the next generation of the Taiwanese semiconductor packaging and testing industry.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Potential Catalysts

    by imos_is_garbage Mar 15, 2016 9:41 AM
    royco royco Mar 16, 2016 3:38 PM Flag

    Agree with all posts today, thumbed all up, took a break, emailed as well, added in the request whether they promptly looked into any LEGAL impediments to announcing an IMOS buyback, as SJ intimated he would at the CC. This is NOT 2008, just look at the balance sheet, diverse customer base, on and on.

    At these depressed share price levels, common business sense, let alone Fiduciary duty, should get these guys to WAKE UP. Will all end up in the electronic “circular file”?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    8150 February Revenue numbers out

    by qksha Mar 10, 2016 10:17 AM
    royco royco Mar 10, 2016 1:38 PM Flag


    You are absolutely correct on history of short term headline negativity, but execs' and BoD's refusal to timely update on promising developments, or free up some of our millions keeps the spread with 8150 ongoing,
    and allows the drops as soon as high end technical resistance is hit. 8150 gets a dividend declared, we get ignored, and Conversion should not be an impediment legal or otherwise, unless someone can confirm to
    the contrary.

    Stalling with updates on promising past business ventures and ignoring legitimate complaints of Naz shareholders keeps causing low volume bailouts before every CC.

    We'll keep up the good fight, wonder if cash needs affected Dane's apparent pull out, or just finding a better short-term opportunity. 4 months or a little less can seem like forever, depending on one's need to put funds to good use, or cover other "issues".


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Rabbit out of the hat

    by sean777007 Mar 7, 2016 6:07 PM
    royco royco Mar 9, 2016 1:42 PM Flag

    Questionable short-term hit on news for SPIL:

    Dropping big time, almost 5%, also interesting that end of article states "Taiwanese regulator EXPECTED to block Tsinghua 24.9% deal"; This vs Imos is apples and oranges; personally do not care about Tsinghua's offer for 25% of Imos, other than indication of a $20 + base price, based on Imos' rational, intrinsic FV, big difference with SPIL situation.)

    "ASE, Siliconware lower after news of regulatory delay for deal review"

    "Mar 9 2016, 13:20 ET | By: Eric Jhonsa, SA News Editor

    The chairman of Taiwan's Fair Trade Commission says the commission probably won't reach a decision on ASE's (ASX -1.2%) bid to up its stake in chip packaging/testing peer Siliconware (SPIL -4%) to nearly 50% before March 17, the date when a tender offer window for Siliconware shares closes.

    The chairman adds the decision has been delayed in part because lawmakers have demanded the commission hold two public hearings before making a decision.

    ASE acquired a 25% stake in Siliconware last year, and launched a tender offer to buy another 24.7% in December. Siliconware, looking to fend off ASE, struck a deal to sell a 24.9% stake to China's Tsinghua Unigroup. However, Taiwanese regulators are expected to block the Tsinghua deal on national security grounds."

    Of course if ASE wants to rethink and acquire our little guy on the block for FV, then bring it (one can dream)!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Rabbit out of the hat

    by sean777007 Mar 7, 2016 6:07 PM
    royco royco Mar 9, 2016 11:40 AM Flag

    turt, sean jay, conversion, garbage and Mr. Sperling if you are reading this:

    Saw 8200 shares sold@ $17.92 in 2 large chunks 1/2 hr. ago, in between a trade to $18, then down on no volume.

    Seems stock is like Kryptonite to any rational investor pre-CC, and the execs are fully to blame. Moreover, the largest holder remains silent, and imo must have appreciated the lock-in rules post-conversion. Why don't they at least speak up, at these prices, about an ongoing buyback.

    More $20 March 18 covered calls out sold this year probably expiring worthless, to say nothing of the $22.50's and even some $30's sold months ago; the $20's have dropped to a nickel, what a shock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • royco royco Mar 7, 2016 2:39 PM Flag

    You meant Not buying back IMOS shares here, correct?

  • royco royco Mar 7, 2016 9:12 AM Flag

    In a JP Morgan article touting TSM, Taiwan markets 2016 upswing was noted, and Imos' customer Mediatek was specifically mentioned for a 7nm 2018 rollout.

    Now if these guys could just clean up the delayed mess they caused in the conversion process (8150 rebounded to 34 but on less that 1mm shares), appreciation towards FV should be a reality with a decent Conference Call. Would that not be a pleasant surprise! Day to day through Thursday, who knows.


    OT: MU at between 10.60 and 10.21 a few weeks ago was a boon short term trade, still benefitted, luck or otherwise, from selling 3/4/16 $12 CCs as a hedge, which expired worthless Friday, bailed/sold lots of uncovered shares anyway. Today is another story apparently.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • royco royco Feb 24, 2016 10:55 PM Flag

    OT, Micron. I recall your thoughts and well reasoned support of it before the June debacle, after their end of May subterfuge. Still seems like a good in and out stock, and Intel and others are backing it. The next best chip will imo get it moving, but dips are part of the play. Risk abounds, rewards may be far off.
    Still think the company can handle Samsung for at least a few years. OT more, Meanwhile Pxlw has been another trading beauty, after their predictable BS conference call caused it to tank. Seems like this happens throughout the chip related field. Consolidation is still a real factor, however, usually a question of time horizon.

    Still top heavy Imos, but will not hesitate to trade a portion regularly due to the 2 years of BS from Mngmt.
    Today was even a bigger swing than expected, $16.60 in, with a close at $17.33, up 4 "+" %. No volume, though final buyer caught over 2k shares. Seth Klarman and his wizards should surprise us all and call in on March 10 if SJ (and SK) obfuscate, let them know time is limited or they are out by August.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • royco royco Feb 24, 2016 1:13 PM Flag

    Yea, thanks, appreciate that area of focus, still see 10-15% trading pop.
    By year's end, depending on the entry point, There's some money to be made irrespective of Tsinghua or others getting a piece of this duopoly.
    Meanwhile, talk about a trading opportunity, $17.36, minuscule volume. What's new.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

33.89+1.09(+3.32%)11:28 AMEDT