I came here looking for help. I bought 300 shares at $4.00 thinking this would be a long term hold and a good stock a long time ago. I am beginning to think I am going to lose this investment. This is so sad. I thought these folks had a good plan. The farming operation was my favorite. I suspected I would be sorry I did not buy 1,000 shares at some time, but at this time I am really happy I only bought 300. I will continue to hold and hope these folks do well in the long run. Good luck to you.
Do you remember "Future PPS - Pros and Cons" from 8/9/14?
Near the end of that thread you estimated the November dividend would be increased to $2.31, then bumped the dividend to $2.40 on the assumption the PPS would be higher in November than it was in August. I will give you credit for nailing the dividend increase. Your estimate had to be rounded so that it was evenly divisible by four and PRU has announced a $0.05 increase to $0.58 or $2.32.
We do not have a higher PPS at this time, but the month of November is not over and I hope we do have a higher PPS before the month is over.
I doubted your process for estimating the dividend, but it worked out pretty well.
I am very happy with the increase, I was expecting a small increase because earnings are flat.
What kind of price action do you see for PRU between now and the end of this year?
I am very happy to see the $0.05 quarterly increase in the dividend or $0.20 per year. I expect this to lead to a stock price of about $2.00 ($0.20 x 10) I am disappointed in the after-market showing PRU is making. As I write this comment, the stock price has not increased.
petersmith, why do you say low volume small trades? 4.8 M shares traded yesterday and the daily average for the past three months is 2.4 M. The trading volume was 100% above average.
If small trades indicate Institutions are not selling, would it not also indicate Institutions are not buying?
I suspect Institutions do not trade based on numbers from one quarter. I think they take a longer term view of where a position is expected to go. I did not sell yesterday, although I wish I had sold at the open and bought back when the price was down over $4.00 per share. The ttm PE was 9.59 based on ttm earnings of $9.29 and the closing price on 11/5 of $88.91. A earnings miss of .21 might justify a price drop of $2.00 if one trades on numbers from one quarter. PRU opened down by about that much, so I did not expect it to drop much more or remain lower for any length of time. I dropped more than I expected. Now I think PRU is a buy. Based on the expected earnings for 2015 and multiple of 9.59 PRU will be worth about $100 in 12 months.
I do understand some traders/investors buy/sell based on emotions and when others are selling, they sell. That is what I think happened on 11/6 and I do wish I had joined in, but I did not. I expect PRU to return to the normal trading pattern today or in the next few days. I do not have cash for long term investment at this time so I will try to day trade PRU while it returns to the $90 range and goes to $100 by next year.
Based on your comment, I suspect you did not sell on 11/6 either? I am right? I think you are a long term holder. I hope you make a lot of money.
sam, I think you are right, but it appears you and I are among the very few who recognize BX is a screaming buy. Unfortunately I am out of cash and I cannot take advantage of these good prices. No one seems to be buying BX. Day after day BX is the worst performer on my board. It is also my largest holding and I really would like to see the price go up.
Keep posting good news and maybe others will start buying.
Yahoo is showing a revision for BX. The prior rating was 1.8. The new rating is 1.7. I certainly agree that BX is a good buy at the current price.
This is the highest rated stock I own. It is also my favorite stock and my largest position. I have great hope for this stock. I have read so many good things about this stock.
Since I started buying BX at $35 it has been the worst performing stock I own. I added shares at $33 and when BX dropped to $31, I added again. Now my average cost must be about $34. I cannot buy any more so I am ready for the price of BX to start increasing dramatically.
crzace, thank you for your reply.
Do you view KKR, FIG, and BX as equal in value? If not which do you consider the best value and why? I have glanced at FIG and KKR and I will continue to study these stocks, but at this point I think BX is the best of the three.
Good luck with your investments.
sandy, thank you for your reply. I agree with your thinking that BX should be $40 at this time. That is why I started buying at $35. I really hope BX continues to increase profits and dividends and increases in stock price to above $80 in the future. I am really tired of seeing the price of this good stock go down.
It would make my life much better if I was earning $15,000 per year from distributions from BX.
Good luck with your investments.
This is the least active board of any stock I watch. You will not get much information from the posters on this board. Some of the few who do post are very knowledgeable and do offer good information and opinions, but they do not post often.
I am not one of those knowledgeable posters. I am a day trader who bought 200 shares of PRU about two years ago at an average cost of about $54. I have a long term hold position of 1,300 shares of PRU at this time. I buy and sell 1,000 shares a day on many days. The price of this good stock is volatile. I do not understand why, unless maybe it is because there are not a lot of outstanding shares. I tell you this so you can assess my thoughts and opinion on an "Entry Point" for PRU.
First, I think one must determine if our Financial World is going to collapse or grow. If we collapse PRU is likely to be worth less than a$25 per share like it was in 2008 or worthless. If the leaders of our world are able to promote growth and economic stability then future value of PRU should be worth considerably more than it is today. I do not see how we can avoid financial collapse, but I have 90 percent of my stock fund invested just because I do not know what else to do with the money.
There are 19 analysts following PRU, FOUR rate it a HOLD, NINE a BUY, and SIX a STRONG BUY. There are no sell ratings. The median price target is $104, the dividend yield is 2.6 percent, the five year estimated growth is 9.57 percent. It looks like the EXPERTS think PRU is a BUY at the current price.
Projecting earnings and dividends at the expected growth rate and using the current multiple, low in my opinion, PRU will be worth $133 a share with a dividend of $3.34.
I think PRU is a buy and I would not worry about the entry point. I see where you questioned the $82 price as an entry point. I hope you bought a bunch at that price and now have a good profit.
Now I would be interested in what you have done.
Yahoo shows an estimated five year average earnings growth of 22.35 percent for BX.
Using the 12/14 estimated earnings figure of $3.13 this level of growth should result in an earnings figure of $8.57 five years from now.
Applying the same estimated growth figure to the smaller dividend of $1.92, the last four dividends paid, the dividend should be $5.25 five years from now.
Applying the current multiple of about 10 to the future earnings figure the stock price should be $85.70. If the earnings growth averages 22.35 percent annually, the multiple should expand to 15 or even 20.
So is it possible BX will be worth $85 per share or even more five years from now?
Based on a stock price of $85.70 and a dividend of $5.25 the dividend yield will be 6.2 percent or a very respectable number, however, based on my average cost of $34 per share my yield would be 15.4 percent.
Are these numbers possible or will the financial markets collapse and make BX worthless? My thought is the people running BX are smart enough to stay ahead of whatever markets develop and that this stock is a great long term hold.
Am I dreaming or is BX a great long term hold?
I wish I had been smart enough to sell everything at above $31 and buy it back below $30.
I never considered selling any BX because all I owned at the time was my core position on which I hope to continue to hold and earn a dividend return of over five percent.
I hope this is a long term holding for me where I earn a dividend of over six percent based on my cost of about $34 per share and an increasing dividend and experience an increasing stock price. I have high hopes for the price of this stock to increase dramatically over the years.
So far this stock has been a disappointment to me. I cannot understand why the price of BX has dropped consistently since I started buying at $35. I did buy more shares as the price dropped, but I am out of cash and I am not able to take advantage of the current low price,
How much upside do you think BX has?
Yes, I noticed. Pretty much what usually happens with a dividend paying stock. I often wonder what prompts people to sell on the ex-date when the stock price is often one to three times the dividend lower than the closing price on the day before the dividend is earned.
I bought a few more shares on the ex-date at too high a price and sold today at too low a price, due to being unable to concentrate on the market. This trade added $0.04 to my dividend and resulted in an annualized return of over six percent for the three day period involved.
While we did not recover the preex-date closing price today, I am happy with the increase we got. Ordinarily I would have held BX until the $30.82 price was recovered and made more money, but I had other problems during the last two days.
Good luck with your investments Sam.
stocknosepicker, I understand your frustration and I feel the same way. This is a relatively new position for me and the stock price has been dropping almost every day since I bought my first shares. I am very disappointed. This is my largest position, share wise, and I think my best stock. I expected better performance, but I still have confidence in BX.
We do need to recognize this is the dividend ex-date. Most stocks drop in price by one to three times the dividend on the ex-date. They usually recover the pre-ex-date price within two to four days. I hope and expect we will see BX go up $0.93 ($0.49+$0.44) within the next few days.
I think the ex-date is a good day to buy a dividend paying stock. When BX hit $30.18 this afternoon it was down almost 1 1/2 times the dividend and it started going up. I bought 900 shares at $30.29 thinking BX would go up to the $30.82 range today because the market was up. I expected to get a $0.53 gain on 900 shares of BX today.
I had to stop watching the market at about 1330 today. Imagine my surprise and disappointment when I returned and saw the $29.89 price. I hope and I expect BX will hit $31 within the next few days. This buy was made for a short term trade and I will probably sell when the price reaches $31.
Keep the faith stocknosepicker. What happened today was expected and it is not an indication there is something wrong with BX. Good luck with your investments.
I have not been able to find the dividend announcement. Do you know the ex-date for the next dividend? Thank you for posting the amount of the dividend.