We are not going to go into winter with anywhere near a full tank. ERF makes big profit off Nat gas. This is wher we usually start going up. We will see
The dollar has been the culprit. Yes we have good supply but really over the last 5 weeks we still are at a minus in build even with a 5 million build today. We are now going out of the shoulder period and usually you will see a move up in ERF starting after the 10th of October on bets for weather. That usually lasts until late November or early December when it can go higher or lower depending on forecasts. Weather, Geo political, Saudis all wild cards to further upside. Terrorists looking to damage infrastructure somewhere.
This is what I was pointing out. Well hedged during this temporary downtown. Nat gas much higher than one year ago too. That's where the profits for this company are anyway.
ON Saudis lowering price. My feeling it has to do with giving free shipping to Asia. and that what this guy thinks too.
“We do not see evidence that this latest adjustment is an effort to lift production, avoid production cuts or punish other producers,” Adam Longson, an analyst with Morgan Stanley in New York, said in a note to clients.
Rather than signaling an impending fight for market share in Asia, the Saudis are probably adjusting for rising freight costs and falling prices of Atlantic Basin crudes, he said
Higher pps for ERF. Going back up next week.
What if Ebla shuts down the Texas Oil fields. I know this sounds over the top but stranger things have happened. This could be a terrorist attack Jack Bauer style. To me there is nothing better for Gas and OIl than good old Canada based companies. They are out of the bullseye compared to Iraq, Saudi Arabia , the gulf etc.You still think there aren't Egyptians trying to blow up the Suez Canal. A dirty bomb made in IRAN could really hurt the Saudi Oil Fields. And don't worry these ISIL guys are starting to get #$%$ off on all these bombs were dropping but is not stopping there advance toward Bagdad. Oh and Putins Happy to let oil goto $60. HAHAHA. Everybody talks about glut but the last several weeks there have only been significant draw downs as compared to forecast, missing by millions of barrels. I've noticed in the charts that ERF usually drops in Sept and Octo ending with a low right about now till next week. Then it goes straight up. The shoulder season is almost behind us, Oh watch out for any late season weather disturbances. Fact is the Saudis basically own Macy's and many other Xmas retailers. I have seen this every year, especially election years. Price of oil goes down, gas prices go down. People spend at Macy's at triple the profit margin for the Saudis as compared to oil, then when you get your credit card bill in January prices start to go right up again. Apologize for any spell or gram errors.
I will take into consideration your claim that advice on this board is maybe 50/50 right. Nevertheless I will be kind enough to thank you for your response. My understanding is Condensate is being legally exported from the U.S.,to Europe right now and building, Its the only thing that can be apparently. I would like a further understanding as to why a FRO ship cannot be used to carry condensate through the Panama Canal ?. The VLCC's don't fit? Frankly I think it will be financing through dilution not BK. Bill doesn't want that stain on his portfolio. Of course it could be a scrap heap so its purely speculative buy on my part. Let me ask you, where would you go for the information you just provided me? I mean you sound smart and informed, should I not believe you?
I've been reading about large tankers being used to transport refined products like jet fuel etc from the Mideast. Apparently the Mideast has built a ton of new refinaries. tanker rates are over $22,000 per day.
I also see booking tonnage is way up. And a 500,000 purchase of stock at the close. Did Bill F dive in and do some insider buying? First an answer on the refined product transport. Is FRO getting the business?
Only 97, many on this board thought 120. Limited ability to get gas to storage. End up burning allot off.
New rules go into effect OCT 1 limiting burn off. Will shut down or curtail rigs going forward. Still way behind the 5 year average.
Maybe they think we've hit bottom. I noticed in the OPEC Monthly oil report that Natural Gas flaring rules go into effect Oct 1, 2014. Just a few days away. "This is anticipated to effect production" North Dakota is aiming to capture 74% of the natural gas produced across the state, climbing to 90% by 2020 Any wells where less than 60% of associated gas is captured will be subject to a production cap of 200b/d. total output may decrease by tb/d