Most sensible post so far...Baba represents market exuberance...NVAX better get going because this market looks like its approaching a cliff...
No one messes up a board; not shorts, traders or die hard longs. We all have a choice of what posts to read and who we ignore. So, maybe you should stop digging through the trash, wily.
because they are making money, rez...trading has become part of this stocks history...many feel that they can handle the risk and as results leak out, big investors will have plenty of time to buy back...some will get caught, but that's how the market gets played these days...from my market experience, there is always enough opportunity to make money and buy into a growing company...you may not catch every jump but wise investors don't have all eggs in one basket (pun intended)...some believe that NVAX is going to blast off and if you are in it, you will miss out...from what we have seen over the years, NVAX appears to be a smoldering volcano that will erupt numerous times once it gets going...for the most part, traders can count on making money...
The system is corrupt, its been that way for a hundred years and more rules are not going to change anything when rules are not enforced. Remember Bernie Madoff? There wasn't one firm on Wall street that didn't know what he was doing or at least smelled something illegal. 12% year over year...and Bernie was just the fall guy. There have been changes for the worse over the last 10 years...for example, the group that spent 300MM to get a milli second ahead in trading. As far as the NVAX sp, I see it as a sprinkler system that goes on and off as needed...when the sp grows an inch, the profiteers mow it down. This always seems to happen before positive news gets released. Negative news gets a mowing back to the ground. I'm in the buyout camp, the sooner the better.
Well, that was not in your first message...but, my message was not intended to be critical of yours. Most board members are aware of RSV's health threat. However, some board members are reluctant to recognize the importance of marketing for an RSV vaccine. If NVAX had a vac for malaria or rabies at this stage, the sp would be much higher than it is now because the average retail investor knows these diseases, media knows them, and their significance would be obvious. Same goes for cancer. RSV is relatively unknown to the general public and VLP is not well known by the medical community. That is not a good combination for future sales...what will change that is marketing and media exposure.
Interesting how people think that because a vaccine exists people will automatically know about it. Ask doctors about VLP technology...see how many know what it is...then ask yourself how pregnant women are going to find out if doctors don't know...ever go to a Dr's office and read the brochures about various diseases and treatments...its marketing. That is what will be necessary to sell RSV vac...it will sell itself easier if combined with flu...but will need an health professional to explain benefits...don't think for a second that a vac goes on the shelf and sells itself...the marketing process starts early on...check out the money thrown at Synagis...one could say that the marketing campaign started when AZN acquired Medimmune...the business side of drug development works hand in hand with marketing...how else could Synagis sell for $10K? The same will go for NVAX's RSV and this is a good indication that the company will be sold to a big pharma with the bells and whistles to make it profitable quickly. NVAX couldn't possibly make the profits from RSV that big pharma can. The company will be sold...the question is before it gets on the shelf or after. Considering the changing model for buying blockbusters, I'd say before. My guest after the forthcoming tests are completed. I wouldn't be surprised if a deal isn't already made.
These RSV statistics may be known by health care professionals, but its unlikely expecting mothers know about RSV. They will want the shot if they are convinced of its benefits. That message will depend on RSV marketing...but, NVAX will be sold long before RSV becomes available to pregnant women. JMHO.
I certainly hope that their strategy works, uncle...the science focus suggests a sale has been agreed upon based on the next round of RSV tests...otherwise it would be in their best interests to build up the sp...looks like they are pulling the reins...no new product announcements also indicates a sale may be in the works...these guys know the value of media exposure...thats the puzzle
And for those interested, this is exactly what public relations is about. They would be looking at scheduled programming where vaccines are the topic and get a NVAX overview in their hands. They might also get a member of the NVAX team invited on the program. Considering how serious Ebola has become and Washington's involvement, my target would be Washington media. Needless to say, the intro would be the fact that NVAX has created a vaccine that big pharma has been trying to make for over 50 years and it can produce it in half the time.
Well, 4nursebee, so do I, and an opportunity to bring it into the news exists through Ebola. The Ebola crisis is a prime opportunity for NVAX to get more RSV exposure by letting the media know there is a faster method of producing vaccines. Radio interviews and video broadcasts have gone into discussing vaccines in general. I’ve listened to several on NY public radio where the HPV vaccine was brought up as a new method and it stops there. The general public is clueless about VLP vaccine production and its potential ability to address threats like Ebola. Vaccines will be getting a great deal of attention in the forthcoming months as GSK tests their Ebola vac. Novavax does not have to be involved in developing an Ebola vaccine in order to be recognized; however, it should be part of general vaccine discussions because public listening is increasing as the Ebola outbreak increases.
"There are two possible future chapters to this story that should keep us up at night."
Unfortunately, there is a third which is terrorism. This is the scenario no one wants to talk about.
Unlikely an RSV vaccine will eliminate RSV altogether; however, it will greatly reduce the rate of infection the more people get vaccinated. As it stands, mumps, measles, rubella, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, and polio vaccinations are all or in part mandated for public schools by the states. Perhaps this thought has been raised before, but an RSV/Flu vac could be made mandatory for schools and healthcare workers for pediatrics and elderly. Also, this is another major difference from Synagis.
uncle's approach to investing is perfectly fine. He has a price point. You may not agree with it, but pigs get slaughtered. I'm overweighted in NVAX, so I have three price points and one of them is 12. Another factor is time. I would be quite pleased with an sp of 12 this year...not expecting a buyout for less than 16 though.
From a non-scientific investment standpoint, there is no true comparison between a vaccine and a treatment. This data shows Synagis is halfway off the shelf. It will to be replaced by RSV, a vaccine; Synagis is a treatment with no benefit from birth as this data indicates. Synagis' cost alone makes it unrealistic as a preventative measure. NVAX's RSV 30% placenta transfer rate in baboons is outstanding compared to Synagis which has none. Parents are paying 10s of thousands for that kind of efficacy from Synagis for sick babies. Why would they hesitate to pay thousands less for 30% protection from the disease in the first place? We don’t actually know how much protection 30% transfer provides, but anything is better than zero. Moreover, pregnant women are advised to take flu shots and why would they hesitate to take a combo RSV/Flu? As far as I see it, this data tells me Synagis is halfway off the shelf. Most important, it almost guarantees approval with successful tests this year. Approval for RSV and RSV/Flu.
This is a buying opportunity...
Sentiment: Strong Buy