Agree Von. As we know, UBS and their cohorts will frequently downgrade to help a cover for their short position and meanwhile cycle trade in a narrow range, for addition or initiation of a long position.
What we need in GNW is a massive interest from the institutions for a buy. LTC is the question and drag---for the present.
FWIW I view these past months as a slow accumulation of shares by institutions, albeit on no major news and negative media headlines. They will read between the lines from many of those articles, especially at these lose Sp levels. Many retail, are disappointed because there has been no Sp surge, as in previous years from these levels. I expect that aspect to follow through after acceptable repetitive LTC results. Might take a year or so until a good rebound, IMO. Short and mid term traders will enter and exit along the journey, multiple times.
Once we develop a base at these levels of long term holders, other institutions of the same nature will add and we should go up a notch to the six level. Takes time for this type of turn around and patience is never easy.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Agree completely Ahon.
Hold your shares, there will be dips from market turmoil.
CNO management will use these Sp retraces to buy shares on the cheap. We should not be shaken out, the buyback increase is very positive, IMO.
Staying long and strong----also appreciating the dividend.
Cheers to all longs!
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Have a feeling this could take a period of time---trading and basing--- that we hold above 20.
Realistic expectations, IMO.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Suneet is not the only analyst nor is UBS the only institution that not only looked foolish but also invested poorly for their clients. Remember also Klein's CNBC video when he was singing praises and good things to come when the stock was in the high teens----right before the massive reserve was announced and the bottom fell out. They view this type of action that they were either grossly misled or someone was very incompetent. Either way, they do not forget, as it was both a negative personally and professionally.
Call it a "payback" or "liar's discount" but it is understandable.
Yes, Haschultz, I also saw those AH trades and IMO quite telling.
Yesterday there were large block institutional trades at the 4.88. Today, large block volume at the 4.50.
Short at the top price and cover near the bottom, all in one days work. Most likely a "borrowing" of block shares between or within institutions.
Thanks for the post.
Hey Von, hope all is good.
FWIW, McInerney, IMO is turning this ship around correctly but it takes time. Far more time than in the previous ascents that others on the board have experienced---when they sold off about half of the Ca PMI (financial meltdown days) and then the Au PMI. I am looking at later 2016 to early 2017---hopefully institutions buy in advance of the actual numbers. On a positive note, I believe this time this insurance company will finally be set straight-----hopefully anyway.
Yes Sp soared when McInereny came on board but the LTC issues were really long standing already in their books. There is little any CEO can do when actions such as today plays out with shorts, downgrades and reduced price targets from a big player like UBS.
Moody's upgrade review is positive and is for what management is striving.
He or one of his cohorts can just publish a new downgrade and bash the stock for another reason.
Fear of further LTC write downs, trouble in PMI, etc. As long as their short is working and there are long positions selling into their short, with few new buyers to counteract----they will stay with what is working. I am sure they are targeting those lows in 2012 in the 3.70 range.
Market and sector weakness will help their short. The fact the general market is near all time highs and GNW is near recent lows is not a positive.
We need institutions long buyers that have "more money" than the institutional shorts.
Hey Jar, same old over here, hope all is good.
When I posted initially I didn't know it was a UBS downgrade (still believe Cohen is part of the short) but all the same result regardless. GNW is out of favor, untrusted and hated in the insurance sector.
Key institutions are short GNW and the Moody's news is not enough to bring back institutional buyers in a big fashion to cause the shorts to cover. As McInerney said himself. "there is much more work to be done". The trade has been short since the initial announcement for the beginning write down a year prior and is still short. If long, average down slowly because the bottom could still fall to new lows. Buy puts and sell covered calls, if so inclined.
Free market and those big institutional shorts have influence on share price. All IMO.
Because UBS and their constituents are short GNW or need to cover. cheap.
Same trade action as the previous quarter post earnings, only with MS anlayst in the media .
Just an opinion (hope I am wrong) but the down wave in sentiment, momentum and Sp is not over but beginning a new leg down from the last small up wave or "dead cat bounce" post earnings. The large blocks at 4.88 AH were institutions; short positions transferring/borrowing shares at higher price from long positions. Trade action will show their colors. The Moody's news is good news but perhaps not enough to have new large institutional buying to counteract increased short positions.
No one knows for sure but I would bet money this action is from Cohen and constituents. Same guys who lost previously on their massive long positions before the big LTC write down and who are behind the lawsuits.
Hey Jar, hope all is good.
FWIW, as we know, this is a typical GNW trade as in the past---when we are out of favor with the street. Overall IMO, Mcinnerney is doing a good job for the trouble he was presented. It takes time to dig out from over a billion dollar hole. When this is all said and done----perhaps a year or two---GNW should be better company with few unknowns. Money flow did not retreat far and is still well into the positive at the close today. There was a good flush out of all recent non committed buyers/stops but the volume was far lower than in the past----when there were real surprises. Couple more days we should get a better feel of where we reside.
JMHO but I do believe the institutions will buy in advance to elevate Sp before all is clear and stable---as long as there is no more major write downs.
JPM upgrade was a clue.
I agree with your post Cav, especially that LTC is the heart of fear and unknown with GNW---- from the institutions. If there was clarity and reduced risk from this division the institutions would be buying in mass, instead of selling and lowering price targets. I like B/L analysis but to be truthful, as has been previously noted on this board, LTC appears to be very difficult to near impossible to evaluate for reserves, from a longer term basis. Hope not the case and I do believe there has been good progress.to solve these issues.
Another LTC write down of any magnitude, even the need to substantially increase the cushion will lead to further Sp deterioration.
Book, that is not the value or intent of this article.
Does anyone really know exactly where the Sp is going to fall or rise in the future, on a short term basis. One needs to look beyond this doldrum and "lack of confidence" to portend some valuations down the road. There is a longer term turn around in play.
I also have access to the stock price and just happen to notice it was down 61 cents.
Trouble posting the entire article with yahoo but a new Booth Laird article on SA. I thought this article brought up some good fundamental points relating to today's trading and quarterly results.
Overall, IMO Sp performance for the near term will be poor or stagnant at best----no surprise. The institutions that control our Sp apparently are not in the Booth camp (yet) upon sufficient reserves in LTC and have confidence issues.
Bottom line, this will take time ---in the area of a year or two (IMO)---to achieve what Mcinerney is trying to accomplish. If the the market and street buys in earlier, we all will know.