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Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. Message Board

rpschom 105 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 23 minutes ago Member since: Feb 5, 2009
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  • Reply to

    Why can't we go on like this?

    by vonerick1980 4 hours ago
    rpschom rpschom 1 hour 23 minutes ago Flag

    That is how I see the situation Von.
    Yes there has been some brief mentioning of privatization and other options on the table but for the most part, time and improving fundamentals will be the path they follow, IMO. I do not see anyone buying LTC presently and overall their efforts have been for a turn around---not total sale or restructuring. The rate increases are good and necessary of course but the analysts were not taking into account the loss of salest, IMO. No surprise.
    Perhaps tomorrow McInerney will have a definitive plan but my bet is more of the same.
    We might hear more talk at the CC for these options and possibilities but the reality is a slow grind.

    Press is already changing their tune to more positive---"earnings miss but improvement and progress". IMO we could see a reversal of trend regardless of the miss. If institutions feel progress has been made and the turn around is in play for increasing improved results, GNW is cheap, real cheap. Not going to say day or time but the market will buy in anticipation and there is more upside than downside.
    JMHO GL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why can't we go on like this?

    by vonerick1980 4 hours ago

    McInerney did say, "why can't we go on like this" and I have felt that would be GNW's MO going forward . He also said at the Times Dispatch that in several years, for shareholders. Slow rebuild of improving fundamentals with improved debt ratio and earnings over time. Ratings and positive analyst views should also rise with time.
    "Time" is the key word here as many were expecting a fast divisional sale, taking GNW private or a major restructuring such that Sp would rocket. Hence the dissatisfaction. If one holds short term time options it can be a negative as the Sp might not perform within that time frame window. The common share owners however can write options (covered calls) to earn income and give some downside protection while they wait.
    I still feel that 6 dollars is a bottom or floor in Sp ( massive put sale) but volatility can rule for a period of time. Perhaps I am wrong but I still see a dip in the morning with a rise later. This is really cheap and IMO value institutions will start to see the improved potential. AH trades are light volume with just some retail exiting for a potential swing trade.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    interesting

    by jarhead19881992 7 hours ago

    Same here Jar. Volume picked up heavy with just a slight increase in price.

  • Reply to

    interesting

    by jarhead19881992 7 hours ago

    Hopefully, results and CC are good such that he covered and will reposition to short again at a higher Sp level.
    Then sell calls at higher strikes and then bring price down somewhat, so they expire worthless.

  • Reply to

    December Puts

    by rpschom Aug 3, 2015 3:19 PM

    Hi Von, I agree and there should be a canceling out effect. I also am not worried about longer term results and believe turn around is in progress.
    What we are dealing with presently is the initial reporting of results and the ensuing confusion immediately afterward. This could cause a dip for a short time, IMO---possibly.
    I am bullish on GNW, these Sp levels are crazy cheap and IMO a bottom is near.

  • Reply to

    December Puts

    by rpschom Aug 3, 2015 3:19 PM

    Agree Slees. IMO that institutional short that is at this very minute actively shorting, is collecting shares. They want us to believe all is hopeless (it is frustrating as they are in control for now). Now with earnings, I expect or (it is possible anyway) a " initial further loss headline" from one of our friendly prostituted media sources to perhaps even cause a further dip in Sp, that they will cover into and go long. Then further good headlines to follow.
    No guarantees but bottom line, my guess the same tute that is shorting also sold that massive put position and some others and they have the money to make them expire worthless. They intend to go long. There is downside pressure in the sector from ALL and AIG earnings, which helps them out today.
    GL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    December Puts

    by rpschom Aug 3, 2015 3:19 PM

    Agree, doesn't take much. Just a temporary move in the ticker will do it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    FBR & Co

    by rpschom Aug 3, 2015 2:41 PM
    rpschom rpschom Aug 3, 2015 5:37 PM Flag

    Agree 100% Blair.
    The increase in the common dividend is icing on the cake. Sooner or later there will be some extra volatility and retraces in Sp but the longer term trend is up, IMO. We are getting many more higher price targets by about 10% from the present levels. There is also still the realistic merger/buyout activity in the sector and we could be a target, at even higher share price.
    No complaints.

    Cheers!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    December Puts

    by rpschom Aug 3, 2015 3:19 PM
    rpschom rpschom Aug 3, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    Hey Jar, overall I believe or follow the contrarian trade or outlook. Presently this short is trying to make the GNW long feel hopeless so IMO long and bullish is the trade. At this point in time I believe our institutional short is accumulating and will look to cover and go long on a dip from the baked in bad 300 million results. GNW has traded very common in the past as such (as Joe has nicely identified) and with the present low volume it would not take a great effort for the same reaction. Those puts sold are easy money for the institutional short that plays both sides of the fence.
    One thing for sure, whatever institution sold those puts and other puts wants them to expire worthless. They also I am sure, own enough of the common to run the trade as they have in the past. GNW is a turn around fundamental play, whether we like it or not and that takes some time to build confidence in management and good sequential results.
    Long and strong, IMO.
    Cheers

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rpschom by rpschom Aug 3, 2015 3:19 PM Flag

    8,330 sold on friday in one print out of the open for the mid December puts, tracked by option monster as a new position.
    Some big players are betting on a floor in shareprice. That however, does not mean we cannot have volatility in the near term over quarterly results. (There will be a 300 million write off that is already known but the media blasters will most likely initially headline it as a huge loss).
    The manner in which we are trading clearly designates a large player short position. With some initial "bad headline news" perhaps they are looking for a opportunity dip to cover cheap then a bounce upwards.
    JMHO and GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rpschom by rpschom Aug 3, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    Raises Hartford Financial price target from 47 dollars to 53 dollars.

    Rating: Buy or Outperform.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Price range

    by greystone_maker Jul 31, 2015 8:27 PM
    rpschom rpschom Aug 1, 2015 12:10 PM Flag

    Agree and that would be their game plan for going private.
    However, though I have no complaints with a buyout or taking GNW private (delighted) and it certainly is trading indicative to support that idea--- I am not counting on it. I even view it as a Hail Mary Pass of sorts for us retail longs.
    I really believe McInerney will be working on improved results in LTC for a slow rebuild in numbers and confidence. How successful he becomes and to what patience/confidence the institutions exhibit should determine how we trade.
    Time will tell soon enough.
    GL

  • Reply to

    S&P Capital

    by vonerick1980 Jul 31, 2015 10:59 AM
    rpschom rpschom Jul 31, 2015 7:10 PM Flag

    Thanks Joe, hope all is good.
    Cheers!

  • Reply to

    S&P Capital

    by vonerick1980 Jul 31, 2015 10:59 AM
    rpschom rpschom Jul 31, 2015 5:30 PM Flag

    That is the bottom line Slees, without improving and predictable fundamentals in all their divisions, the institutions will not initiate or add to their positions but will--- sell. It will dictate the future trade.They have been burnt in the past with extensive losses from unexpected horrible results both from the previous CEO Frazier (PMI) and presently with McInerney (LTC).
    Almost every other major insurer has a common stock buy back and a steadily increasing dividend to their loyal shareholders. It is the "norm" for an insurance equity, not the exception.
    As we know we have had none since the meltdown and in the near future, it is unlikely but possible.
    Patience with GNW the company and their present management will be short lived, IMO if there is more loss or terrible results. Positive talk and possible options at the CC will not be enough. WS will speak loud and clear as they have done in the past---by selling and shorting driving Sp even lower. In a sense they will force McInerney out and a new CEO to be elected, as they did with Frazier (remember the Eisman fiasco). From bad to worse.
    I am thinking and expecting positive buy realistically that is the other side of the equation.
    Cheers

  • Reply to

    S&P Capital

    by vonerick1980 Jul 31, 2015 10:59 AM
    rpschom rpschom Jul 31, 2015 12:08 PM Flag

    Agree Von, we are presently dirt cheap and also one of the safest risk/reward investments in the sector and market, IMO. Stable good performance with no unforeseen loss, should attract value based institutions and propel us higher (possibly a slow propel).
    Once these institutions start buying, the positive momentum change will attract many others. Improved and ratings and upgrades will follow.
    FWIW I believe many smart institutions are presently accumulating. So far, volume is higher today, a good sign
    GL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rpschom by rpschom Jul 31, 2015 7:30 AM Flag

    Increased target price to 55 dollars from 45 dollars.
    Rating: Buy

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Big Picture

    by rpschom Jul 30, 2015 3:38 PM
    rpschom rpschom Jul 30, 2015 8:50 PM Flag

    It amounts to risk and reward. If you believe all the material stocks are entering BK then stay away, just as many did in the financial meltdown with large insurance carriers such as HIG, PRU, AZSEY, GNW, RDN, CNO and actually 99% of all banks. Everything was not going to survive and traded accordingly to all time lows. Yes, the sky was falling. Opportunity.
    The constant bad press followed hand in hand. I bought many at crazy low prices, held through retraces, sold covered calls and still hold them all long---now presently even collecting terrific high dividend yields from my principle. No complaints.
    The big picture is this is a down cycle and at some point in time there will be an corresponding proportional up cycle to follow. It is how WS produces those constant huge profits in both directions. The world will not end.
    I am not saying this is the bottom, nor when the cycle will reverse. When it does however, if one is not in the game, it will be fast chase. Presently the share cost of many of these stocks, is the cost of a longer dated option. WS can actually gain far more to the upside trade presently than to the downside trade on most of these stocks. Something to consider. That is actually a powerful indicator as they follow the greatest money for the trade.
    GL

  • Reply to

    Big Picture

    by rpschom Jul 30, 2015 3:38 PM
    rpschom rpschom Jul 30, 2015 3:47 PM Flag

    That would work, IMO. Once some of the shorts start to cover the rest will follow. Herd mentality with panic.

  • rpschom by rpschom Jul 30, 2015 3:38 PM Flag

    If one is a long investor it is difficult to be overjoyed or content with how CLF trades after a very respectable earnings in difficult times. It is important to focus on times like these on the fundamentals and future of the actual company rather than the numeric ticker trade. There is a disconnect. Our big banks and several hedge funds have complete control with their large short interest and for the time being there is little anyone can do about it except---sell and move on (what the shorts desire), buy on cheaper price or hold or wait it out.
    These are crazy cheap Sp levels yet without large institutions buying in numbers the stock is easily put down.
    LG is aware and hence his comment about the people behind the screens desiring to destroy and old American company. CLF is being positioned for the future very well, IMO. They are not going BK and can pay their debt.
    Remember the financial's in the meltdown days. Regardless of the fundamentals there was only one trade---short and the result was falling Sp, to crazy low levels---followed by more bashing articles of no hope. Look at them today, for the majority they are many multiple times their lows. It will be the same with the material sector.
    We will not know the day or hour when the shorts relinquish and let the algorithms run long but have patience, ride it out and buy more if able.
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    well,well,well

    by jarhead19881992 Jul 29, 2015 1:14 PM
    rpschom rpschom Jul 29, 2015 3:41 PM Flag

    Thanks Jar, agree that gap fill is good. Looks like not even Janet can loosen the "reigns" or perk the interest in GNW presently.
    Ball should be in management's court and the quarterly results, soon enough. Though I believe other big players behind the scenes have already been accumulating, in anticipation of good results and for an overall turn around. (Hopefully anyway).
    Cheers!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

CLF
2.42-0.03(-1.22%)Aug 4 4:03 PMEDT