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The Travelers Companies, Inc. Message Board

rpschom 101 posts  |  Last Activity: May 1, 2015 6:55 PM Member since: Feb 5, 2009
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  • Reply to

    debt &equity statement filed Genworth

    by acdfoods May 1, 2015 5:35 PM
    rpschom rpschom May 1, 2015 6:55 PM Flag

    There should be complete details soon following next week, IMO.
    All I could find right now.
    GL.

  • Reply to

    debt &equity statement filed Genworth

    by acdfoods May 1, 2015 5:35 PM
    rpschom rpschom May 1, 2015 6:17 PM Flag

    Article for May2 from the australian for the raising of 250 million note issue, only

    ant US mortgage insurer Genworth has won regulatory approval to carry out a $250 million subordinated note issue to back its 66 per cent-owned Australian subsidiary Genworth Limited.

    The debt issue was revealed in a market update from the US group’s chief financial officer, Marty Klein.

    Mr Klein also noted that a recent decision by the US parent not to reinvest Australian earnings in the Australian business meant that its effective tax rate from Genworth Ltd. would jump this year to between 30 per cent and 35 per cent, up from 22 per cent last year.

    “We are no longer asserting our intent to permanently reinvest earnings in Australia as we re-evaluate our strategic options,’’ he said, adding fuel to local speculation that troubles in the US healthcare business may compel a further selldown.

    The US group, originally spun out of General Electric as an insurer, has been the major mortgage insurance provider in Australia and sold off 44 per cent of the business in an initial public offering in May at $2.65 a share.

    The stock ran up to as much as $4.30 early this year after a strong profit result, but dropped back sharply in mid-February to $3.32 after key customer Westpac said it would start writing its own mortgage insurance rather than dealing via Genworth.

    Genworth and QBE LMI are the two biggest non-bank mortgage insurers in Australia, and they have benefited greatly from the recent lift in capital city property prices, which has pushed down the level of claims.

    Banks compel borrowers to take out mortgage insurance when the loan-to-valuation ratio of a mortgage exceeds about 80 per cent.

    Rising prices make claims rare, although the end of the mining boom is making lenders and insurers nervous about a possible rise as prices sag in mining towns.

    Mr Klein echoed Genworth Ltd.’s recent statement that NAB might follow Westpac away from Genworth to go its own way on lenders’

  • Reply to

    debt &equity statement filed Genworth

    by acdfoods May 1, 2015 5:35 PM
    rpschom rpschom May 1, 2015 5:58 PM Flag

    Appear to be filing for the potential of a mixed shelf but the size is not disclosed. SEC filing.

  • Reply to

    RAYMOND JAMES

    by rpschom May 1, 2015 8:05 AM
    rpschom rpschom May 1, 2015 2:52 PM Flag

    Great advice and agree completely, thanks Jar.
    Money flow (CMF Acum, OBV) on healthy volume, is also supporting this move post earnings.
    Majority of price targets from reputable analysts are far higher in SP and rising. If future earnings are positive or promising, they will also improve with the positive momentum.
    It is not a flash pop buy, GNW has room to run at these levels IMO.
    Trading shares around a core position with selling some options on the core, is how I like too roll.

    Have a great week end.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    RAYMOND JAMES

    by rpschom May 1, 2015 8:05 AM
    rpschom rpschom May 1, 2015 9:35 AM Flag

    Agree. Raymond James commands good respect, IMO and as a "Strong Buy" that is a very nice upgrade----they will be having their clients buy GNW.
    There will be dips in SP as in any stock or market but the overall trend and valuations point upward. Staying long and strong.
    Cheers!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rpschom by rpschom May 1, 2015 8:05 AM Flag

    Raises price target on GNW to 12.50.

    Rating STRONG BUY

    Cheers to all longs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • With respect to strong----CMF--- Chaiken Money Flow and negative share price movement.
    Big guys are buying while keeping share price low to falling. Bodes well for near positive run in SP.---IMO
    GLTA

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey Stupid People!

    by jarhead19881992 Apr 30, 2015 2:09 PM
    rpschom rpschom Apr 30, 2015 3:29 PM Flag

    Agree Jar, we are on the same page. I believe the worst in SP and fundamentals are behind us in GNW. I feel institutions will in the near term buy for the anticipation of either sale of assets and restructuring. Earnings numbers should also be on the upswing. Pendulums swing.
    Trade is for long, regardless of some past imperfections.

    Glad all is good by you, same here, major complaints. I also highly value your opinion so please voice it loud and clear.
    Cheers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey Stupid People!

    by jarhead19881992 Apr 30, 2015 2:09 PM
    rpschom rpschom Apr 30, 2015 2:15 PM Flag

    Well said, Jar.
    Hope all is good, cheers!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Gordon Johnson Cash Concern Comments

    by vczapico Apr 29, 2015 9:58 PM
    rpschom rpschom Apr 30, 2015 9:49 AM Flag

    Good synopsis.
    I am also sure that these short positions are using borrowed shares from the banks (they represent) that hold large blocks long.
    What we need is "new" funds and institutions to buy (in a big way) such that there will be a need to cover. LG doing media rounds for the press--- like the shorts promote, would help in this regard.
    Fight fire with fire.
    Thanks.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    200 Club

    by ahonsbruch Apr 29, 2015 5:45 PM
    rpschom rpschom Apr 30, 2015 9:36 AM Flag

    Agree, nice to see that progress below the 200 million.
    Not sure if or when, about the 100 mark but there should be continuing reductions.
    Overall, great progress Y/Y. the slight miss is to be expected periodically IMO.

    Cheers to a lll longs!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rpschom by rpschom Apr 30, 2015 7:08 AM Flag

    Raises GNW to a BUY rating.

    Cheers to all longs.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rpschom rpschom Apr 23, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    Never said I didn't hedge, I hedge almost every investment. Irrelevant.
    My agenda and yours counts for squat (another american "phrase") compared to the institutions opinion and purchases on GNW.

  • rpschom rpschom Apr 23, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Institutional buying controls the level of our SP. If they are "happy" with the quarter results and the decisions discussed at the CC, they should initiate positions or add to their positions. Positive momentum and upgrades will follow as a carry through and SP will rise.

    The "fraze" (phrase) has been valid numerous times in the past----and so has it's contrarian side.
    GL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rpschom rpschom Apr 23, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    Possible but the real news at the CC will be about potential restructuring divisions and sales.
    The street or market will deem this more positive for our SP than a beat of earrings by a few cents, IMO.
    If the institutions are happy we should be happy.
    GL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Goldman

    by greystone_maker Apr 23, 2015 8:26 AM
    rpschom rpschom Apr 23, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    Agree. IMO, our very well paid politicians (government---Republicans and Democrats)) know fully well what GS MS JPM BAC C WFC and some other heavy hitter "too big too fail" institutions actually do to corporations and ultimately fleece retail citizens and taxpayers. They allow the laws, pass the legislation and turn a blind eye ----including the SEC---because of the all important lobby money. It motivates and is the real and only reason they fight to be in political office. This is why GS and others donate very heavy to both political parties and maintains a constant presence in DC with the key committees and law makers. Several of the big hedge funds do the same.

    Personally, when I see a Goldman (they are the worst, IMO) "upgrade", I usually have a negative emotion. It usually means they are short and are swaying the public investors to buy----- for their benefit.
    GL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rpschom by rpschom Apr 22, 2015 1:16 PM Flag

    Raises price target to 102 dollars from 100 dollars.
    Rating: Hold

    Let the stock buybacks resume.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rpschom rpschom Apr 22, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    Agree, feel the same. He inherited most of these problems from their prior sales and insufficiencies. He really just didn't handle the LTC capital losses in the best manner to the shareholders , as he is well aware.
    At this juncture and with how the market negatively reacted to GNW's losses, ratings etc and the ensuing SP destruction, he is being forced to listen to the institutions and other key players that want SP improvement---sooner than later. In many ways though splitting GNW is long overdue to create shareholder value. We were hardly ever fairly valued to our peers because of the complexity in the multi divisions. I always saw them as strength personally but the institutions viewed them as a fault, especially if there was any poor results or poor earnings in any of the division. Hence the radical SP swings.
    I anticipate restructuring to try and put us favorably valued with the institutions moving forward. Hopefully.
    JMHO GL

  • Reply to

    April option premiums high on HIG...why?

    by joezapp86 Mar 26, 2015 12:59 PM
    rpschom rpschom Apr 22, 2015 9:27 AM Flag

    The short put trade before earnings on HIG, appeared to also be explicit for HIG, while the other insurance stocks or competitors that I check, had little similar action. Someone must have believed they knew something on HIG, IMO.
    So far, no traction for that trade but as we both have noticed post earnings on May 1, there are just average spreads with no slant for a major sell off. Those same traders must have been counting on a early miss notice--big time.
    Unless there is a major total market and financial sector sell off------followed by a HIG terrible earnings quarter release we appear in the ballgame for our levels, IMO.
    Agree, I also am definitely very interested for this quarter's release and CC.
    GL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rpschom rpschom Apr 22, 2015 8:21 AM Flag

    Well said, agree. What is also helping the "short hand" is new long positions are waiting to enter/buy for the quarter earnings release and even more so for the CC and probable restructuring of GNW.
    With fewer long buyers, the hedge fund shorts can easily actively trade this intra day to drive price down. There are also many stops from recent purchases sine the high 6's, since the unknowns and questions still exist, until after the CC.
    The shareholder voting is active presently and it should be interesting, IMO. The large institutional voters of course hold the major sway and I believe they will side with status quo, since I am sure they have been told change is coming. Never know however, with SP levels at these zones and falling there is great dissatisfaction and there could very well be many votes for a clean sweep----- to send a message of their discontent.
    Cheers

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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