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The Travelers Companies, Inc. Message Board

rpschom 81 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Feb 5, 2009
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  • I agree that some and perhaps many institutions are "buying and holding" but we need more to do just the same and be confident in the future appreciation.
    There are also institutions that are actively trading GNW, some writing naked options (that their goal is to expire worthless), some loaning out shares to other institutions for cooperative trades long and short, some day/swing trading, some using HFT computers to attack the bid/ask, some all the above. Just because they are a registered "institutional holding" does not mean they are letting the shares lie dormant ---waiting for a wish, hope, prayer and the words of McInerny. They want/need a return on their investment and just as you/I buy and sell, write covered calls or move elsewhere---they also will act.
    Proof here is that GNW is trading off the grid pattern from most other insurance equities, even with a positive quarter results. It has lost about 25% since just the past 5-6 days and near 40% since post earnings. If all the institutions were just "buying and holding" we would have a far sight better stability in share price.
    Cheers

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • JMHO Joe but a couple of factors are in play in GNW.
    Fundamentals lead the trade but at times it is also like a dog chasing it's tail, kind of deal.

    My two cents, fundamentally the institutions want LTC isolated and/or risk contained----especially after the billion dollar reserve charge . Until that is accomplished---with finality---they are not buying and holding in a big fashion and hence there are more shares in the float open. Meanwhile they also do not see the stock running up in Sp and hence it is a great trading vehicle---short and long, for institutions so inclined. At these levels they can buy and/or borrow many millions of shares for their trade and with some HFT control the ticker.

    The other day on the June 24 when there was huge blocks of shares changing hands at or after the close---25 million---it was no accident or MM rebalance. We have lost 25% of the market cap in about 5-6 trading days ----all with no news, announcement from management, McInerney action or general sector. No point in blaming Brexit, oil, MI or anything else. Trading funds are gaining, just not common retail investors. By this type of trade performance it also keeps others from buying and encourages selling. Just like what we are seeing on this board. That action helps the short trade.
    Overall, IMO it is going to take multiple quarters of good results and the isolation of the LTC division. Management is doing the best ( or what they can do) from where they inherited these books. Even an activist investor has not been interested for quite a time.
    Slow rebuild---with many pitfalls and dips. Hopefully no major negative surprises.
    Cheers.

  • Reply to

    The Big Banks

    by rpschom Jun 29, 2016 5:39 PM
    rpschom rpschom Jun 29, 2016 7:38 PM Flag

    Agree Von, management is on the correct path but it will take time. Patience is a virtue, right.
    The trade shenanigans we are seeing are normal, especially at these share price levels.
    The old three steps forward and two backwards.
    GL

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Big Banks

    by rpschom Jun 29, 2016 5:39 PM
    rpschom rpschom Jun 29, 2016 6:00 PM Flag

    FWIW ---a spike upward in money flow today ( CMF and Acum)

  • rpschom by rpschom Jun 29, 2016 5:39 PM Flag

    Have received approval for their capital plans from the Feds. Basically are common dividend increases and share buybacks programs. We wish, right.
    In total, this might offer some trading strength and resiliency to their share price value and hence have a carry over effect to the financial sector in general. Especially in these low interest rate environments for people to find a decent rate of return on their investment.
    One would think GNW might benefit---indirectly---from the general financial sector but it remains to be seen.
    We seem to be on our own orbital pattern. Time will tell.
    Cheers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rpschom rpschom Jun 29, 2016 1:12 PM Flag

    JMHO but the other day this large "block institutional transfer" was for a short trade on GNW. (long shares owned, borrowed to a short)
    It has been working very well for them. One could possibly expect a "cover trade"--quietly as a transfer back to the institution or division of the same.
    I am sure they are in no hurry, they are running the ticker.

  • Reply to

    Pending Home Sales

    by cavalier2015 Jun 29, 2016 10:53 AM
    rpschom rpschom Jun 29, 2016 12:31 PM Flag

    .........and all this time the smart money was buying puts.

  • rpschom rpschom Jun 27, 2016 11:13 PM Flag

    JMHO but management lets Sp fall or sell off to a low level and then does their share buy allotment at the cheaper level---allowing them to buy more shares.
    IMO good buying opportunity.
    Cheers

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Credit Suisse

    by rpschom Jun 13, 2016 10:05 AM
    rpschom rpschom Jun 27, 2016 1:17 PM Flag

    You got it Grey.
    They are spending the money in share repurchase to help meet earnings expectations. Without the decrease in their float, would be worse.
    I would be really surprised if we get a dividend increase, especially after the recent share price carnage.
    We deserve one, compared with some of HIG's peers but that will get us no where.

  • rpschom rpschom Jun 27, 2016 12:27 PM Flag

    Today is Margin Call Monday--- from Friday's hammering and they will force all who are on the wrong side of the trade to pay up the hard way. That being said, I am sure there are some trading desks that are liquidating GNW to pay for another loss.
    I would not take it individually or personally between Brexit and GNW.

    Fundamentally, since we are still joined at the hip to LTC there is little respect and greater trepidation---we are a higher risk play for some institutions. Regardless of McInerney's positive talk, days like today are ----risk off.
    We also pay no common dividend, are buying no common shares back at these cheap prices nor is management presently buying common at these levels. No price support or stability help and as such, we become more of a pure trade vehicle, IMO.
    This decline hopefully should stop when the overall market stops the carnage.
    Nearing the bottom of the BB on $NYMO, while VIX is inside the top----for now.
    Cheers.

  • rpschom rpschom Jun 24, 2016 7:54 PM Flag

    Large blocks of shares held by one institution (bank, etc) are loaned to another institution (another bank or division of same)---- for short of long trade intent and then returned or rebalanced after that period of time.
    It facilitates forceful "naked shorting" by institutions, gains some income for the shares loaned out by that institution and also facilitates options written by said institution, to expire worthless. Thy will also work in synchrony on the trade, with quiet whispers.
    While the small investor waits and waits, the institution makes profitable good use of the time for multiple types of trading with very little risk, in a equity like GNW.
    Cheers

  • Reply to

    Credit Suisse

    by rpschom Jun 13, 2016 10:05 AM
    rpschom rpschom Jun 18, 2016 12:13 PM Flag

    JMHO Grey, it is nice to see analyst's ratings improve with higher price targets but in this low interest rate environment I do not see HIG attaining these Sp levels. No complaints if they did of course but I am not holding my breath.

    I would be happy for a small dividend increase the next time around.

  • Reply to

    Genworth struck oil in the parking lot

    by joeschmo_4 Jun 17, 2016 10:06 AM
    rpschom rpschom Jun 17, 2016 10:22 AM Flag

    That would be there luck.
    Strike oil, right after they sold the real estate to a competitor. :-)

  • Reply to

    SP Raises PT

    by cavalier2015 May 13, 2016 9:52 AM
    rpschom rpschom Jun 16, 2016 11:35 AM Flag

    Getting close enough to fulfill that gap.
    Now for buyers hopefully.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Down 4-8% on a consistent daily basis.....

    by chosimi2000 Jun 16, 2016 10:57 AM
    rpschom rpschom Jun 16, 2016 11:30 AM Flag

    Everyone has their own "model" as to how GNW trades and IMO all are to be respected.
    In my own, when after earnings I saw the gap up and go from good results, it raised a red flag for nearer term closure of that gap at about 2.88. Overall, there is a tendency to push it down to near that level anyway and there is easy profit for the MM, to see who sells quickly from a retrace from the post earning buying. I know gaps are laughed and scoffed by many, yet they frequently get filled, as we are a mean reverting market and it benefits the MM who has great sway in Sp, especially on low volume. Let alone options written to expire worthless by institutions.
    Does not mean it cannot go lower, IMO and you could be 100% correct that it goes to the low 2 zone Few buyers and some shorts, usually leads to lower. As we know, this stock became gutted with the billion dollar reserve charge and future confidence in management will take many good quarter results----and fundamental good news with LTC division. It is a trading vehicle in the foreseeable future yet longer term I believe a great investment. There are no share buybacks, even at these cheap prices to support share price---as is the case of many other more stable insurance equities. The volatility can make anyone sick and if it does and one does not like to hedge/trade, sometimes it is better to cut ties/sell and forget it completely.
    Best of luck!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    what is the plan for untangling this mess?

    by kenberthiaume123 Jun 14, 2016 11:53 AM
    rpschom rpschom Jun 14, 2016 10:36 PM Flag

    Joe, we had hoped for that outcome for a long time ----to no avail.
    IMO it would take a activist Icahn type investor with a big capital commitment to "sway" management possibly through a vote to sell. Forget all the responsibility talk to the share holders for equity valuation, these guys like their jobs, salaries and perks and want to do things---their way.
    Management has taken a slow timeline for the company with paying debt, sales, regrouping LTC and working PMI to hopefully rebuild shareholder value. How LTC eventually ends up remains to be seen.
    As of late the institutions are still giving a vote of minimal confidence. Yes, it could change but I am not counting on a sale to a stronger insurance equity. There are no alarms going off as Sp wallows in the mud.
    Cheers

  • rpschom rpschom Jun 14, 2016 4:07 PM Flag

    97,300 share imbalance to there sell side so far-- really is not big time and most likely the MM working this down to close or near close the gap from earning results where it surged. Overall, expected.

    Fundamentally GNW is a company in transition (hopefully positive) whose market cap has been annihilated the past two years.
    It is a trade vehicle far more than other insurance companies when institutions buy for some stability and dividend. If GNW takes a few steps forward, it is very easy to take two backwards. Here we are.
    Cheers

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Schwab

    by rpschom Jun 13, 2016 10:29 AM
    rpschom rpschom Jun 13, 2016 2:51 PM Flag

    I knowJoe, I looked twice while rubbing my eyes.
    The analyst's must have had a fun weekend at the beach party hosted by Tom. He was also giving out "dividend tokens", as perks.
    :-)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rpschom by rpschom Jun 13, 2016 10:29 AM Flag

    Increased the overall rating of GNW to "A" rating---their highest.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rpschom by rpschom Jun 13, 2016 10:05 AM Flag

    Raises price target to 55 dollars from 52 dollars.
    Rating: Outperform

    US Research RoundUp

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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