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J. C. Penney Company, Inc. Message Board

rr_raj_rr 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 27, 2014 4:53 PM Member since: Jun 21, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Odds

    by alexandertriller Sep 23, 2014 8:51 PM
    rr_raj_rr rr_raj_rr Sep 27, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    correction: have April 2015 $6 calls (not Jan 16)

  • Reply to

    Odds

    by alexandertriller Sep 23, 2014 8:51 PM
    rr_raj_rr rr_raj_rr Sep 27, 2014 4:10 PM Flag

    I have 15K shares but average is $5+
    Positives I see are - Julien Geiger, General upbeat market, JCP-like situation, Sycamore involvement.

    Negatives are - Julien Geiger's CRUMBS stint, aggressive short sellers, Sycamore involvement

    Can you share more details on Sycamore involvement?

    Me thinks Sycamore involvement is good because it provides financial support - and hence takes BK off the table.
    However, Sycamore will be the first to know if and when the ARO ship is turning around. They can make a buyout offer at 20-30% of current share price - even 40% for quick shareholder approval.
    Even a 40% premium results in upside of $4.73.
    Great for a new investor - but not so great for those who have $5+ cost basis (even $7).
    Unless I interpret Sycamore's hold on ARO incorrectly - they are preventing BK but will also limit upside to % rather than 2-3x bagger.

    I have already bought super leap calls (Jan 2016 $6 calls). Also see a gap at $7.30 which is likely to fill if ARO shows 2 quarters of consecutive improvement. The calls can provide equivalent profit as the shares would - so I am looking for opportunity to unload the stock - with freed up cash used elsewhere in this hot market.

    Looking for good news from ARO mgmt though.
    It takes special talent in this cash-flush and hot bubbly market to be needing BK protection.
    Hoping Mr. Geiger has none of that special talent.

  • Reply to

    I will not touch BABA

    by yiwang2 Sep 18, 2014 10:39 PM
    rr_raj_rr rr_raj_rr Sep 18, 2014 11:30 PM Flag

    good post. many big traders know this already.
    Alibaba will make $68/share for $21.6B total. Whether they deserve this money or not.
    Wall Street will use Hype and unavailability of "real scoop" on foreign companies to take it up to $268/share.
    Big traders will make $200/share or $63B total.

    Petty folks will start nibbling BABA in their retirement accounts around $250/sh when the hype clearly is pointing to BABA getting to $500 in a year and $1000 in two.
    8 million individual investors (from Tacoma to Fayetteville) with $10,000 average investment each in BABA - hoping for a quick double.
    They wiill lose it all - and say "oh well - win some, lose some" - and move on.

    Same story will play out a decade later with the next big thing: JellyBaba

  • Reply to

    what is in store for tommorow?

    by r450rr2004 Sep 17, 2014 8:12 PM
    rr_raj_rr rr_raj_rr Sep 18, 2014 10:45 PM Flag

    yeah - straddles are good for binary stocks. I prefer Leaps or further out expiry dates.
    But today WLT is in $2? I bought some of my own medicine at 67c
    I won't be watching this position everyday and have mentally written off the buy.

  • Reply to

    what is in store for tommorow?

    by r450rr2004 Sep 17, 2014 8:12 PM
    rr_raj_rr rr_raj_rr Sep 18, 2014 1:56 AM Flag

    sell WLT stock - around $3.44
    replace with Jan 2016 $5 call options - 75 cents.

    In 18 mo either WLT is goin belly up or headed to $15.
    If WLT goes belly up - you save $2.70 per share from losing - hopefully the freed up money makes you at least 75 cents in other bubble stocks in next 18 mo.
    If WLT goes to $15 - you recover all your money. And some.
    (perspective - WLT was $19.50 less than 1 year ago)

    So the stock to option swap is meant to save what's left of your investment without limiting your potential upside.
    Only works for binary stocks - ones that will either make it or break itself.
    Biotech is another example.
    ... just something to consider.

  • Reply to

    Makes you wonder if Merck...

    by gman7027 Sep 16, 2014 5:55 PM
    rr_raj_rr rr_raj_rr Sep 18, 2014 12:36 AM Flag

    on the other hand - if OPXA gets money through offering - they'd not need a Merck buyout this soon. Even if share price declines due to offering dilution - OPXA would demand a higher premium for a buyout because they would not be desperate (at least for a few quarters).

  • Reply to

    Makes you wonder if Merck...

    by gman7027 Sep 16, 2014 5:55 PM
    rr_raj_rr rr_raj_rr Sep 16, 2014 11:27 PM Flag

    good thinking GMAN.

    Everyone is saying company is stupid, CEO is #$%$ - and price action is saying the same thing.

    OPXA obviously has been planning to raise cash for weeks - see the steady price decline (insiders in the know).
    Some talks must have broken down prompting OPXA to announce half-#$%$ed public offering - that to without a set price.
    Then the funding talks revived. Overnight.
    So - promptly cancel the offering. Look like a total #$%$ - but knowing OPXA will not look so stupid when funding is shortly announced.

    I like this thinking. Have a 10K position. Good luck to you !

    Sentiment: Buy

  • rr_raj_rr rr_raj_rr Sep 1, 2014 11:20 PM Flag

    nothing ...
    so the RSH CEO is goin to roll into work at 10 AM and then start the day by talking about the fishes he almost caught over labor day weekend.

  • ... just like rest of the real companies that make announcements on Sunday evening on important matters - clearly indicating they worked through the weekend 24x7

    RSH even had Monday.
    I'd be mad if RSH CEO is spending quality time with his grand kids.

JCP
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