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ONEOK Inc. Message Board

rrb1981 11 posts  |  Last Activity: May 17, 2016 8:52 AM Member since: Apr 18, 2001
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  • Reply to


    by nutflushbaby May 13, 2016 4:45 PM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 May 17, 2016 8:52 AM Flag

    Too many conflicts of interest. AGP is a pipe dream.

    This baby is toast. Interest expense is eating up half, yes half, or Ebitda. Production is declining quarter over quarter due to decreased maintenance capital spending and they have very few assets that provide a decent IRR at current prices.

    Cohen should have rolled the GP into ARP when they sold APL to Targa but he got greedy.

  • Reply to

    ARP can issue more bonds

    by nosouthwest May 17, 2016 1:07 AM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 May 17, 2016 8:50 AM Flag

    Turn out the lights, the party is over.

    Cohen drove this baby right into the ground. I will be shocked if we don't see "going concern" status change at ATLS.

    The real question is how long can they stave off bankruptcy?

  • rrb1981 rrb1981 May 15, 2016 8:59 AM Flag

    It is Sunoco, not Sunocal. It's a drop-down, not a hand-me-down, and it was from ETP, not EEP.

    EEP and MEP are affiliated and MEP is likely to implode and be cast astray from EEP.

  • rrb1981 rrb1981 May 15, 2016 8:56 AM Flag

    The warning signs have been flashing for the past 2-3 years. Management booted Kolja Rockov out, if that didn't wake you up, nothing would.

  • rrb1981 rrb1981 May 15, 2016 8:43 AM Flag

    The money should go to the creditors, not investors. That is the hierarchy of the capital structure. Even within the creditors, many of them must wait for the banks and senior secured holders.

    Linn investors are going to get a big fat zero, and no amount of letters to a judge will change that.

  • Reply to


    by nutflushbaby May 13, 2016 4:45 PM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 May 14, 2016 6:21 PM Flag

    Your world view is very flawed. Many on this board, myself included, were telling people to get out as far back as a year ago. People convince themselves that chasing yield is worth it. They convince themselves that they know more than the street.

    Many MLPs and E&Ps with debt will survive, in fact, many will even thrive. ARP is poorly managed, has very poor leadership. Cohen is a senile old clown but make no mistake, I bet you a dollar he ends up holding assets post bankruptcy. He'll find a way to weasel control of the private drilling partnerships, Lightfoot etc.

  • rrb1981 by rrb1981 May 11, 2016 5:43 PM Flag

    Linn bond still not at $40.

    Ha Ha.


  • Reply to

    Debt Coverage Etc

    by nesivos Mar 30, 2016 11:14 AM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Apr 5, 2016 11:15 PM Flag

    Is this supposed to solve MMLP's leverage problems?

    Care to discuss the gas storage issues and 2016 projected declining DCF?

  • Reply to

    Debt Coverage Etc

    by nesivos Mar 30, 2016 11:14 AM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Apr 3, 2016 8:46 AM Flag

    MMLP management admitted that the contracts at Cardinal that are rolling off are being renewed at lower rates. The B of A analyst you mention also showed 2017 ebitda lower than 2016.

    Where is MMLP growing? What plan do they have to appreciably grow ebitda and lower leverage?

  • Reply to

    Debt Coverage Etc

    by nesivos Mar 30, 2016 11:14 AM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Apr 1, 2016 8:47 AM Flag

    My thoughts are that Howard is a home run for Alinda, it is growing and has some projects to export into Mexico (Enlink has some projects with them). RIGS is a disaster due to falling volumes from the Haynesville, this is based on the fact that Regency (now part of ETP) owned the other half and as I recall, only the MVC (minimum volume commitments) were saving them. With the emerging deeper plays, it might recover. Note that the Haynesville still has a decent number of rigs, only exceeded by Marcellus/Utica as I recall. I do not know about Nortex, but HFOTCo has an excellent ship channel location, almost as good Bostco. I think Alinda had designs of using MMLP as a drop-down vehicle, but perhaps changed their minds. When the transaction happened, it seemed like MMLP was partnering up with a strong supporter, but ultimately nothing has really transpired.

  • Reply to

    Debt Coverage Etc

    by nesivos Mar 30, 2016 11:14 AM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Apr 1, 2016 7:19 AM Flag

    I addressed the natural gas storage issues at SeekingAlpha. Some of the other posters seemed to insinuate that storage wasn't a concern and upon me mentioning Buckeye's Lodi facility, Niska and Crestwoods Tres Palacios facility, I was greeted with rebuttals of LNG and Mexico exports and rising power generation demand. The prolific nature of the shale plays has shifted the supply basins and also brought the overall value of natural gas down as well as the seasonal (summer to winter) spread. Storage contracts from times when gas was $4.50/mcf make little sense when gas is $1.80 Henry Hub and lean E&P companies LOE and SG&A costs are $1.20/mcf. Margins are getting squeezed. The oversupply we have means less storage is needed because it is being exported to Mexico or via LNG and not stored for domestic winter heating use. This is one of the after effects of the paradigm shift of shale gas. An industry has been turned on its head, just like LNG import facilities are being converted to liquefaction facilities, it was not foreseen 5-10 years ago. MMLP has a few years as the contracts are staggered at Monroe, Cardinal etc, but DCF is declining and will likely continue to decline in the gas storage busienss and leverage is increasing and MRMC is NOT a strong GP. If they were strong, they would not have divested 50% of the IDRs (the golden goose) to Alinda.

    As for overpaying, yes, but also, as I mentioned on SA, they overpaid to gain control of the cash flow. When they had the Redbird JV, they had project level debt that prohibited cash distributions. Once they rolled it into the fold and moved the debt up to the parent, they could start taking meaningful distributions.

    I think in 2016 we see fairly significant disposals of marine assets and would not be surprised to see WLPG divested.

    It is time for management to stop jeopardizing the long term viability of the company for short term gains.

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