The departure of Ed Cohen from day-to-day affairs is a blessing. Putting a seasoned guy like Schumacher in charge of day-to-day operations is important, and frankly, about 2 years too late! Losing Matt Jones is, well, addition by subtraction! He was nothing more than a sycophant collecting a paycheck and telling Cohen what he wanted hear.
Cohen is, put simply, a blind optimist. He also has the uncanny ability of disappearing as soon as he screws something up, which he is quite good at. Perhaps now that he has his new shiny play-toy
Is it marklibera that once said, Cohen has the ability to take something good and turn it into something not quite as good? I think it was. A golden quote.
Now, I will say that ARP has some attractive properties. The Barnett acreage is actually quite good. The CBM production, which they overpaid for, is essentially immune to NGL exposure (for obvious reasons) and provides a "ballast" of low-decline properties to help dampen their overly active drilling program.
If, and it is a big if, ARP can get back to a 10% yield, and if they can manage to make quality acquisitions (stick with natural gas while it is low and out of favor) they can survive and perhaps even grow again.
Hopefully they will learn to hedge rather than try to "time" the market, as Ed did with Rangely. He really needs to retire completely, but then I guess he wouldn't be able to find jobs for his progeny...
You can find the distribution history a number of places, including on Yahoo under the historical prices section as well as Buckeye's website.
During the last conference call, it was intimated that due to the latest acquisition (Trafigura) that the rate of distribution increases may accelerate once the capital expenditures are complete. That would mean a quarterly increase above the $.0125/Q ($.05/annualized) that they have stuck with for some time. Whether or not that increase in the rate of increase materializes remains to be seen.
Overall, management felt like the drop in crude was probably a net zero to slightly positive event. I'd say it is slightly negative, even if BPL's cash flow is not necessarily hurt, many of their counterparties are probably seeing reduced margins and cash flow. BPL is however seeing a strong demand for storage due to the market being in contango.
Personally, I am fine with BPL raising at the rate they have been at, even if distribution growth slows down to $.01/Q or less, management has done a great job of integrating the Hess acquisition and helping turn the company around from several years ago when they were lacking on coverage and the balance sheet was overextended (lingering from the absorption of BGH and elimination of the IDRs). I think the long term benefits of BORCO are now finally being seen, after a number of years of expansions and volume ramping up.
I look for BPL to continue running with 1.0x-1.05x coverage and continuing with modest distribution growth.
You mention the debt, now tell us about the value of the assets and the cash flow they generate.
Very few "energy" companies are immune from all commodity price drops, but Buckeye is fairly well situated to hold its own during this volatile period. Of particular interest will be the utilization of BPL's many storage terminals, both crude oil and refined products. With the glut, crude is filling up many terminals, and high refinery runs due to lucrative crack spreads will mean plenty of refined product production, perhaps above current demand, meaning refined product storage will also be in strong demand.
As for the low cash position, I think you will find that nearly all MLPs run with minimal cash on hand. Cash coming in pays down the revolver and at distribution time, it is drawn back down again.
Couldn't help but laugh a bit today when I saw the distribution announcement.
Degenerate sandforbrains unblemished record of being wrong on the $3.08/unit distribution remains intact! Going on well over a year and the distribution actually moved backwards! The poor dolt never could get anything right.
It has been mentioned on their conference calls. You can consult investor relations for information as well, which will probably not be divulged...but it doesn't hurt to ask.
Copied and pasted from a Reuters article, for the boards viewing pleasure.
Jan 16 (Reuters) - Enterprise Products Partners said on Friday its Seaway Twin pipeline may not run at full capacity for the time being on low oil prices.
It is running at 200,000-250,000 barrels per day (bpd) now, versus capacity of 450,000 bpd, Enterprise COO Jim Teague said.
The line connects to Enbridge's Illinois-to-Oklahoma Flanagan South and is part of a network that is ramping up and carrying crude from Canada to U.S. Gulf Coast refiners
Silliness as always. We all know fully well that Enterprises Seaway is running, it was never a question of it running, but you knew that, it was a question of running at full capacity. Once Cushing is full, the WTI/Brent spread (which I alluded to in my note) should widen and force Brent imports out. Hence, my comments about capitalizing on midcontinent refiners.
Once again your utter contempt and hate have gotten the best of you. You sir need to turn your life over to Christ. You can be redeemed.
It is difficult to say, but clearly contracting risk is high on the list of risks for their various gas storage hubs.
They have 2-3 years contracted so the risk is around 2017 timeframe.
Once Cushing is full, EPD's Seaway will likely ramp up to full capacity (on the expansion loop which has been running well under capacity) as crude flows to the gulf coast refining hub since it has no where else to go.
Time to capitalize by buying MLPs like BKEP, NGL and others that have sizeable storage in Cushing. Midcontinent refiners such as HFC,WNR will likely also prosper as differentials to Brent should widen. HFC has a very nice share buyback in the works.
As for rig count and supply, I'd expect rig count to continue to drop, and to hit at least 800 and if things get really ugly, it may go even lower but we all know that rig count is a leading indicator and the fall in supply will take time, perhaps even into early '16. American exceptionalism is driving efficiency gains.
I am not sure where you got your information, but I hate to tell you that it is completely erroneous. Storage will not be full within a couple of days. Cushing will likely take 6-7 weeks and even that is subject to change based on a number of factors, including Brent pricing. Plus, much of the refined product storage has yet to fill up, especially along Plantation and Colonial meaning refiners can ramp up refinery runs and simply fill refined product storage (until it too reaches capacity).
Now, I do agree that things could get very interesting when storage reaches full working capacity. Of course, rig counts continue to fall which is important to correcting the issue in the later part of the year.
It could get ugly, but this would more or less coincide with OPEC's scheduled meeting and who knows what will happen then. OPEC is already showing signs of disintegrating. The Saudi's are fine. They have ample foreign reserves they can draw down. Some of the "step-child" countries do not. Venezuela, Nigeria, Libya are suffering. and a huge glut of US crude pushing WTI down relative to Brent won't help them.
Even if the step-children countries demand a cut, I just don't see the Saudi's giving in. If anything, I could see them, the U.A.E., Kuwait, etc ramping up production. After all, do you expect Venezuela, Nigeria and Libya to cut production? No, of course not. They want momma S.A. to take the cuts and S.A. has signaled that those days are over.
All that being said, S.A. is sowing the seeds of OPEC's destruction. This collapse is forcing US producers to get lean and tough times in the oil patch will mean more improvements in completion techniques, after all, necessity is the mother of invention. And with completion improvements, we will see higher IRR's at lower prices.
The US is going to keep growing production over the next few years, even if '15-'16 see drops. The Saudi's won't have much leverage at that point other than they are the low cost produce