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PENN OCTANE CP Message Board

rrb1981 173 posts  |  Last Activity: 48 minutes ago Member since: Apr 18, 2001
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  • Reply to

    Market Snooze

    by rrb1981 1 hour 53 minutes ago
    rrb1981 rrb1981 48 minutes ago Flag

    We don't "feel" that it adds $.06-$.09/unit, management stated $20-$30 million in accretion, which spread over the ~331 million units gives $.06-$09/unit.

  • rrb1981 by rrb1981 1 hour 53 minutes ago Flag

    Looks like the market is snoozing again. Linn just continues to execute their plan, as they have been articulating now for some time regarding their back to basics strategy.

    Our shop has been quite pleased with the progress that has been made e.g. abandoning the hybrid model.

    This transaction appears to be accretive to the tune of $.06-$.09/unit per the company while also reducing maintenance capital by $20-$30 million annually, which of course allows them to continue to be ever more selective in their development capital, high grading their prospective PUD inventory and achieving much higher blended IRRs across their overal development portfolio.

    In an overly inflated market, our shop continues to view Linn as a protective play given how much of the LLC premium was evaporated by Hedgeye fiasco. Buying assets at or near NAV appears highly favorable to buying them at overly inflated prices and "hoping" to grow into the valuation.

    They still have ~1/3 of Wolfcamp to divest plus the GW. Moving pieces slowly falling in place. The removal of the "cowboy culture" regarding aggressive drilling program is doing wonders for the company in terms of allowing them to once again be able to manage the overall blended decline rate. The 35-40% overall decline rate of 2 years ago was simply untenable, it forced them to be too aggressive and too dependent on having success in drilling. Now, with a low double digit (perhaps eventually a high single digit) decline rate, the pressure is off of them to knock the cover off the ball every time. Additional work remains regarding cleaning up the capital structure but can likely be managed via a large LNCO c-corp acquisition, helping shift debt/ebitda back to an acceptable multiple.

  • Will be interested to see when we receive our proxies. I'm up well over 50% and expecting to see continued capital appreciation assuming the Sanchez deal is consummated. It is definitely a nice contrarian play in this very overpriced market.

  • Reply to

    Huge depth

    by innagrigorenko Sep 5, 2014 3:06 PM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 7, 2014 7:55 PM Flag

    opinions,

    Berry has actually performed quite well since they acquired it. Now, it has not resulted in a distribution increase which was disappointing to most investors that are preoccupied with distribution growth and as such, it has been viewed by some as a disappointment. The reality is that Berry saved Linn from what would have been a very messy ordeal had the deal fallen apart. If you actually run the numbers at the time of acquisition, Berry was very accretive and as a result helped their DCF/unit tremendously (showing just had bad it would have been without Berry).

    The Wolfcamp acreage they brought to the mix is now being paired with Linn's existing Wolfcamp and will eventually be converted to stable mature production via either a swap or a 1031 exchange.

    It also validated the use of LNCO as an acquisition currency for c-corps.

  • Reply to

    Huge depth

    by innagrigorenko Sep 5, 2014 3:06 PM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 7, 2014 7:41 PM Flag

    No mistakes were made whatsoever.

    If you look closely, I said it was accretive. It just didn't result in an immediate increase in the distributions. Linn would be a disaster had it not made the Berry deal. Increasing geographic and commodity diversification helped tremendously as did size and scale increase.

    You keep trying to spin things but as always fail miserably.

    BTW, Linn bond now trading at same price as it was 4 years ago (you know, when Jack bailed out). Just in case you forgot.

  • Reply to

    Huge depth

    by innagrigorenko Sep 5, 2014 3:06 PM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 7, 2014 7:25 PM Flag

    legalbark,

    Agreed, the board is much better without the political discussions. I'd also point out that the quality of discussion on the board has gone up exponentially after the degenerate sandforbrains left the board. There was simply no place on this board for his degenerate, vile and subhuman thoughts. Perhaps his absence is actually yahoo blocking him due to the number of "flags" for inappropriate comments. I suspect that may be the case.

  • Reply to

    Huge depth

    by innagrigorenko Sep 5, 2014 3:06 PM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 7, 2014 7:22 PM Flag

    Wrong again Norris. Your attempts are becoming increasingly desperate. Only confusion on your part.

    As was clearly spelled out, increasing the number of units issued in the acquisition of Berry did not impact Linn's debt nor the ebitda they acquired via Berry, but clearly it impacted the ebitda and DCF on a per unit basis.

    Berry was the lifeboat for Linn. Those that thought Linn overpaid would be shocked (likely dismayed) to see the shape that Linn would have been in without it. Linn management knew that paying up for the quality assets was necessary, even to the point that no appreciable increase in the distribution was to be had, though clearly it was highly accretive and brought with it a host of high IRR PUDs where they could divert much of their budget, increasing capital efficiency.

    Nice try though son. You get points for effort.

  • Reply to

    Huge depth

    by innagrigorenko Sep 5, 2014 3:06 PM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 7, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    john2webster,

    I respectfully disagree.

    The number of shares issued for Berry did not impact the debt (remember, the Berry deal was an equity exchange of LNCO for BRY, with Linn of course assuming Berry's existing debt). That increase in units did impact coverage ratio no doubt, as the DCF acquired via Berry had to be spread across a greater number of units, but it in no way reduced the amount of ebitda that they acquired nor did it require them to take on any more or less debt than was already outstanding at Berry. So while the Kaiser fiasco did impact DCF/unit, it did not impact ebitda/unit or debt/unit.

    I too am pleased with the general direction over the past year. Our firm has believed for several years that Linn would be unable to manage the hybrid model and time has proven that to be the case. The Hogshooter fiasco was the straw that broke the camel's back. Now, they are returning to the model that wall street knows is manageable. Hold stable, mature producing properties with relatively low decline rates, run with a 1.10x coverage ratio and utilize the coverage ratio cash cushion to balance operational ups and downs. That "equity capital" cushion is vital. Linn is executing that plan.

  • Reply to

    Huge depth

    by innagrigorenko Sep 5, 2014 3:06 PM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 7, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    endless like your mindless rants on ethanol on an E&P LLC board.

    :)

  • Reply to

    Huge depth

    by innagrigorenko Sep 5, 2014 3:06 PM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 7, 2014 4:54 PM Flag

    Now now, Silly pagan Norris. Letting hated fill your heart and mind as always. You still haven't learned there is no such thing as ebitda to leverage ratio. It is the debt to ebitda ratio.

    Attempting to spin the terming out of debt as anything than what it is shows how desparate you are.

    Yes, as you point out, Linn still remains overly leveraged (bloated would be appropriate). Management can say they are "comfortable" with it, but the market sees that they are a full turn above the rest of the industry.

    Perhaps we can get back sandforbrains on the board. Maybe he can whip up one of his special finviz charts showing Linn's underpeformance over the past 4 years? Stagnant unit price.

    Of course, with Norris, hope springs eternal. Always has an excuse for managements short comings. Always. And when he doesn't, in typical liberal fashion he changes the subject...to ethanol.

    Some day he may actually see his beloved Linn bond return to $40. Someday. :)

  • Reply to

    Huge depth

    by innagrigorenko Sep 5, 2014 3:06 PM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 7, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    Well, I wouldn't say that Linn has "gotten away" with anything. Their unit price has been hammered from $40 down to the low $20's (in part due to Kaiser) and now resides in the low $30'S. Linn is essentially trading at the same price it was at 4 YEARS AGO. Investors in Linn have missed out of a good portion of what amounts to the greatest bull market ever and have had a roller coaster ride in the process. Additionally, management had to eat crow on the Hogshooter fiasco after essentially banking the companies future on it.

    As for the mix between oil and gas, being contrarian on their buys is just smart business. Large independents are jettisoning mature natural gas properties at prices that allow Linn (and other E&P MLPs and of course, Private Equity buyers en masse) to make a good margin and lock in that margin for 4 or 5 years with stable to slightly rising gas prices. Why would Linn want to buy oil properties at the top, then have to go out and hedge forward when the strip is in a backward dated market? Instead, they are focusing a large portion of their drilling budget on oil, where they can harvest their high IRR PUDs, get really good returns on the flush initial production and get pay-out early on and have less risk with the tail end production.

  • Reply to

    Summary and Recommendation (mcdep)

    by mikeyhorsehead Sep 2, 2014 6:49 AM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 7, 2014 3:07 PM Flag

    DMLP is one of my "quiet" sleepers. The boom in the Permian and Bakken should continue to result in a nice influx of reserves and cash flow and help offset the decline in some of their more mature producing areas where drilling has waned.

    I don't worry about this one much, I just collect the distributions each quarter.

  • Reply to

    Huge depth

    by innagrigorenko Sep 5, 2014 3:06 PM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 7, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    opinionsarelike33,

    "Something is going on with all these moves that doesn't add up."

    I doubt it. Management stated that all of the recent transactions would be paid for internally via the divestiture of the Wolfcamp and of course, the Granite Wash/Cleveland Sands. They also divested the Stack play in the Woodford (undeveloped acreage). Financing these via debt would be a major departure and a smear on their credibility..so as was pointed out, this is likely them simply doing typical housekeeping and terming out debt at fairly attractive rates.

    Of course, most investors are impatient and want these kinds of transactions to happen overnight. The divestiture and acquisition of what amounts to billions in producing properties takes time for the due diligence. This involves a tremendous number of people to assess production history, titles and financials. Also keep in mind that Linn is likely running numerous iterations on the Wolfcamp (i.e. being sold as a single package vs in parcels).

    2014 is a year of transition. Too many moving pieces to fully assess all of the individual moves. 2015 should bring much greater clarity including no more concerns over execution in the Hogshooter. No more nail biting about whether the well will be a gusher or a barely economic producer. 2014 is a back to basics year where management is once again embracing the tried and true concepts and shunning the hybrid model.

  • rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 6, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    It is a function of the fact that SBR has a tremendous position of undeveloped acreage. Without the burden of having to fund development, SBR, along with DMLP find themselves as 2 of the best royalty plays within the sector.

    Yes, a review of the annual reports provides a wealth of knowledge. I built a spreadsheet and trend all of the critical metrics on both SBR and DMLP. SBR is not actively managed, whereas DMLP is...both have been incredible performers for my portfolio.

  • Reply to

    Bollinger band width

    by lordofdoggtown Sep 5, 2014 10:34 AM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 6, 2014 2:49 PM Flag

    opinionsarelike33,

    You are correct. Management proved they could not effectively manage the high decline rates associated with an overly active drilling program. It became untenable for them to manage all of the facets associated with a multi-rig program, not the least of which was timing and completion. Factor in that they got overly excited over a few gushers, which ended up being exceptions and not reflective of the average type curve and it resulted in them learning a very expensive lesson. Assuming your entire Hogshooter acreage is highly prospective turned out to be a low point for management especially after trumpeting their initial success so loudly. However, management has learned their lesson and are instituting a "back to basics" strategy. Focus is being placed on shifting their portfolio back to mature, low decline legacy production. This reduces their capital intensity as it requires far fewer wells to be drilled to address a 15% corporate decline rate versus a 35% corporate decline rate. Fewer wells allows them to be methodical in their selection of capital projects to pursue be they new drilling efforts or cost efficient workovers/recompletions and infrastructure projects to help lower LOE. Additionally the high quality, high IRR PUD opportunities that Berry brought to the table are allowing Linn to maximize capital efficiency by focusing their capital on their best returning opportunities. Once again Berry continues to prove itself to be one of the best acquisitions they have made since inception.

  • Reply to

    Am I just lost OR

    by allen2462001 Aug 25, 2014 2:30 PM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 6, 2014 1:02 PM Flag

    Looks like lack of drilling is keeping the distribution solid and the price continues to reflect some optimism in the prospect of Mancos shale upside.

    Probably going to trade in line with natural gas until the Mancos potential becomes evident.

    It becomes a nice annuity.

  • rrb1981 by rrb1981 Sep 6, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    Looks like Miller is divesting their Tennessee operations. ARP has such legacy production in the area. It might be a nice complimentary fit. Clearly not large enough to move the needle, but appears to have a lot of re-work and recompletion opportunities.

  • Reply to

    Why do they need $1B to offset the bridge loan?

    by bobdbus Sep 4, 2014 9:23 AM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 4, 2014 6:15 PM Flag

    "pressedent of a company"

    You crack me up thrgreatone561 (alias brafallan). That is what I would expect from a democrat. Can't spell and can't punctuate.

  • Reply to

    how do you make a distribution payment

    by barc37000 Sep 4, 2014 9:50 AM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 4, 2014 11:18 AM Flag

    Now now clown norris, you are simply wrong. It was not about Ebitda to leverage ratio as you stated. It was about debt to ebitda, that is the ratio. You are confusing very simple concepts, again. Once again, you've let your hate and rage run wild and get the best of you in a vain attempt to slander and attack. It is who you are.

    Secondly, you and I both know that 2014 is a year of transition and transformation. Those that worry about Linn piling on more debt have to look at where they end up once these transactions are all completed. We do not know how much 'hidden value' Linn will unlock with the Wolfcamp and Granite Wash. Monetizing assets that the market is not assigning a fair value on while embedded within Linn and converting them to mature, low decline production which the market can and likely will fully value helps Linn close the valuation gap. As for the debt they are issuing, I expect leverage metrics to improve going forward, that in fact, has been the mantra of Kolja for some time now since the market and analysts started complaining about it. So, whether the proceeds are used to roll over maturing debt or are coupled with equity for an acquisition or are used to simply term out revolver debt, it makes little difference until all of the divestitures and swaps have been consumated.

    Oh, and I noticed Linn bond still isn't at $40...major market underperformance over the last 4 years (go to finviz and look at the chart)

  • Reply to

    how do you make a distribution payment

    by barc37000 Sep 4, 2014 9:50 AM
    rrb1981 rrb1981 Sep 4, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    I suspect the billion dollar note offering is simply part of the company cleaning up the capital structure. The coupon is quite attractive at 6.5%.

    All of the recent deals (Hugoton, Devon and likely others that are pending) will ultimately be financed "internally" via proceeds raised from divestitures of the Permian Wolfcamp and also the Granite Wash/Cleveland Sands etc.

    Of course, that doesn't preclude them from being opportunistic in raising what amounts to fairly cheap capital.

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