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Millennial Media Inc. (MM) Message Board

rrryahoo 494 posts  |  Last Activity: Oct 15, 2014 2:06 PM Member since: Dec 21, 1997
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  • Reply to

    Merck deal

    by juicyjuice10001 Aug 13, 2014 2:13 PM
    rrryahoo rrryahoo Aug 13, 2014 2:19 PM Flag

    you are Protectdeeznuts??? new id???

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Close $2.37 in Germany.

    by before_dec_mcp10bucks Aug 13, 2014 12:49 PM
    rrryahoo rrryahoo Aug 13, 2014 1:19 PM Flag

    what is overseas symbol for MCP? trades on DAX?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dilution is coming. Not if but when

    by bionuthing Aug 13, 2014 9:49 AM
    rrryahoo rrryahoo Aug 13, 2014 11:47 AM Flag

    you are correct. terrible dilution of stock with 380M shares and convertible and so many options. they need to stop paying themselves excessive compensation as they have already benefitted. They should have to purchase their shares at market prices and hold on for 5 years and no less. Insiders should have the best interests of the company's financial condition and shareholders in mind at all times and maximize the wealth of the company and shareholders, which should include themselves. They should be prohibited from cashing out on options for a period of 5-10 years after vesting.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MNKD P/E scenarios

    by williamsrv Aug 13, 2014 2:00 AM
    rrryahoo rrryahoo Aug 13, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    williamsrv, please comment:
    Stock price: $7.50; Shares outstanding: 380,000,000; P/E Multiple for growth pharmaceutical: 40X to 200X
    Conservatively start with 40X multiple which means 40 times yearly earnings. Example: $1 yearly earnings = $40 stock.
    $7.50/40= $0.1875/yr in profits. Divide by 4 for quarterly profits= $0.0468 or about $.05/share in quarterly earnings required to justify a stock price of $7.50.
    $0.05/share in earnings= about $20,000,000 in profits per quarter required.
    MNKD/SNY split of Afrezza is 65/35. So 35% of profits (after expenses) goes to MNKD.
    MNKD has about $30M in expenses each quarter, some of this will be transferred to JV. Hopefully all of it. So this is a question.
    So we must get $50M in profits out of the JV to arrive at $20M in profits/quarter.
    So the JV must make $50M/.35=$143M IN PROFITS PER QUARTER.
    Typically pharma profit margin on revenue is 20%.
    $143M/.20= $715M in revenue from sales of Afrezza PER QUARTER required.
    Assuming Afrezza costs $1000/yr/patient, then that's $250/quarter/patient (hopefully it will be covered by insurance). Then need $715M in revenue divided by 250/quarter/patient. This means almost 3M patients per quarter paying about $250 each quarter to arrive at $715M in revenue per quarter.
    Then throw in rest of enterprise + $175M upfront payment + $750M milestones, add that too earnings too, goes directly to bottom line. Lots of unknowns. Market is still evaluating deal. 389M diabetics, but 7M in US who are in Afrezza target population. Read the 10Q--lots of risk factors to consider as well, dilution, debt, convertible, etc. Real hard to get a handle. But at least MNKD can sell Afrezza now and monetize it. 2.4B carryover losses--no taxes for awhile if become profitable.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rrryahoo by rrryahoo Aug 13, 2014 9:42 AM Flag

    FABU!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rrryahoo by rrryahoo Aug 13, 2014 12:39 AM Flag

    How many patients start on Afrezza?
    1Q, 2Q, 3Q, 4Q...and what is cost per patient over the year?

    Anyone have old estimates. Please repost.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rrryahoo rrryahoo Aug 12, 2014 9:17 PM Flag

    SNY finances losses related to Afrezza that may occur near beginning, so all the losses are taken care of by SNY financing, namely a revolving line of credit.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Go and watch how to use Lantus video or any "pen" use video for that matter. Imagine sticking yourself with that needle 3-4X per day. Exubera didn't mimic pancreatic insulin and it was fricking huge. Go and see an image on Bing. LOL. Fricking big.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Pretty simple math...

    by halcyoniv Aug 12, 2014 3:52 PM
    rrryahoo rrryahoo Aug 12, 2014 9:08 PM Flag

    MNKD responsible for 35% costs of everything related to Afrezza, SNY responsible for 65% costs. But SNY will finance MNKD's losses, meaning no need to get financing for debt. Folks the agreement works in MNKDs benefit during initial losses as SNY bears the majority of losses. It works in SNY's benefit when (if) it goes profitable, MNKD 35% profits (netted) and SFY 65% of profits (netted).

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rrryahoo rrryahoo Aug 12, 2014 9:01 PM Flag

    Mannkind gets ~$1B in payments + 35% profits. The upfront payment really isn't relevant if you believe the drug will sell. Al & Co. looked at their internal projections and SNY's plan to sell Afrezza and clearly believe the milestones will be hit. So that's $1B cash or roughly 1/2 the development costs. In essence the deal is a 50/50 split since in the beginning SNY accepts 65% of the losses and MNKD 35% of the losses. SNY also extends a revolving line of credit to MNKD meaning MNKD doesn't have to get money to pay for the losses, they are financed by Sanofi. I mean what else could you bargain for??? Seriously. It is ALL about Afrezza and its potential in the diabetes marketplace. That's the bet. A good point is that if the 8/15 convertible debt is convertible at $6.90 and they mentioned that they believe the debt will be converted (resulting in some dilution) next year as the price has been trading above this level, then today's $7.22 level might actually be the resistance level. SNY brings a $180B company, a second to none Salesforce in diabetes and their expertise and more. There's a value to that. If the stock was trading at $15/share, everyone would be slapping each other's backs. The stock is at $7.50 and everyone is whining. Folks: THE DEAL WAS GREAT.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rrryahoo rrryahoo Aug 12, 2014 8:31 PM Flag

    what is status of this....believe this may be what Al Mann was referring to in CC. "new process" that SNY has rights to. do you know where they are in trials, etc?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Some Rational Thoughts After Emotion Dies

    by mkmnymklv Aug 12, 2014 6:52 PM
    rrryahoo rrryahoo Aug 12, 2014 7:01 PM Flag

    great analysis and points. TO= technosphere. looking, as well, to add more at lower prices and w/o margin.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Lantus & Afrezza Combination

    by jstokcton Aug 12, 2014 5:20 PM
    rrryahoo rrryahoo Aug 12, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    That's exactly what's going to happen. Likely the use of Lantus+technosphere combined has been patented. Every Lantus patient who uses post-prandial insulin will use Afrezza. MANY PATIENTS.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    MNKD: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly

    by b4unewme2 Aug 12, 2014 5:21 PM
    rrryahoo rrryahoo Aug 12, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    fyi, lease not leaf. you can also lease a Leaf. electric cars the way to go ;)

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • HAND RAISED.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Next stop 52 week hi

    by bullrider500 Aug 12, 2014 4:30 PM
    rrryahoo rrryahoo Aug 12, 2014 4:36 PM Flag

    good post! we need a LONG rollcall here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Bought at $7.36

    by rrryahoo Aug 12, 2014 1:08 PM
    rrryahoo rrryahoo Aug 12, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    I can't predict the low, but I know I like these prices and was regretting getting more at these prices when the stock was at $11.00+. I was like "damn should have bought more lower". Am looking forward to sales launch. Ready to go ALL-IN baby. Bring it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rrryahoo by rrryahoo Aug 12, 2014 1:13 PM Flag

    to hit milestone of $250M in sales, it's cumulative....doesn't have to be hit in a quarter. Think about it. This will happen rather quickly IMO. milestones will be hit.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rrryahoo by rrryahoo Aug 12, 2014 1:08 PM Flag

    Don't look a gift horse in the mouth. Actions speak louder than words. This company is worth at least $16/share. I'll stick with the RBC estimate not the shorts estimate thank you. Sanofi bab. Lantus + Afrezza + technosphere licensing to other companies, + euro/japan approval + SALES.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rrryahoo rrryahoo Aug 12, 2014 12:56 PM Flag

    the deal struck with Sanofi was incredible. first of all MNKD spent $2B to develop Afrezza, in return it gets $1B in payments provided milestones are met. Second of all, all costs are shared 65/35 Sanofi/MNKD respectively. Meaning Sanofit bears the burden of majority of costs in return for majority of profits. Sanofi is an $148B diabetes powerhouse with 50K sales reps with no directly competitive drugs to Afrezza. Only a small piece of the post-prandial pie means big revenue for the joint venture. Don't let them fool you. This was a great deal in light of the cash position of MNKD and its inability to go it alone. Moreover, you have the value of the technosphere side of the company. MNKD could still sell itself and the buyer would step into the shoes of MNKD vis a vis Sanofi. As 1Q 2015 rolls around, the stock price will take care of itself to the upside IMO. These guys got a drug past the FDA for godsakes. Do you know how hard that is to do? Just ask the CEO of any small biotech company. Again don't believe the FUD and think for yourself. Would you rather stick needles in yourself 4 times a day or take four coordinated breaths? Lantus + Afrezza is the combo.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

MM
1.92-0.06(-3.03%)Oct 20 4:04 PMEDT

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