I have traded back and forth in many stocks (especially the last few years). I would not do that here. Also, free up your mind - don't get caught up with numbers. I hear lots of people here hoping it will go to 95, 110, 120, 140 150, 160. If you did that with GOOG and AMZN and sold early - you would feel pretty dumb today. Take all my comments here with a grain of salt - I own lots of BABA. I plan on holding my shares for a long time. I just hate to see people miss the big push up in share price.
I would not look for the share price to be moving lower at this point - it is in a rapid move up for the share price. I don't know how high, but higher. I also would not look for the share price to move lower during the Sept. 20 lockup release (the last two release dates Dec. 18 and Mar. 18 had no real share price movement). We are in the buy and hold phase.
Agree with much of what you say here - however, if you look at April 24th, 1998 to the end of that year - AMZN went up over 650%. I agree, BABA started with many more shares and at a higher price (IPO). But, it can happen. Interestingly, on April 24th, 1998 AMZN traded at 81.50 much like BABA on April 23rd, 2015. I don't expect such a huge gain - who knows. Comparing AMZN and BABA should end here. They are heading in different directions. BABA is on rocket ship of growth and AMZN is just now trying show they can make money. Don't get locked in with the PE - that will soon become a smaller concern. In other words, we could start to see a PE of 80. There will always be the China company concern, but I would look for all sorts of new business plans out of BABA. They are not really bound by the US limits of one company having so much market share or for that matter one in so many areas of business.
I saw the action and reaction to the news yesterday - it didn't seem logical. As I don't own NSAM (lots of NRF) I didn't think about it very much. I only put out my experience calling IR, with all the action this morning and no commentary I debated about saying anything - decided to put out my brief connection to the company for others to think about. I have no inside information, other then my little call seemed odd and left me with the feeling something was going on - woke up in the morning - and something was going on. That is all I know.
Just an innocent comment I wanted to leave with IR. It appears to me to be the perfect time to sell shares in Europe. The share price of NRF is on hold until the deal gets done. The cat is out of the bag about the plan - - in short, just do it.
I called NRF IR yesterday to leave a voice mail to encourage them to push forward the NRE spin-off. Spoke with two people with my comments - I was asked if I was part of "the group". I was eventually routed to leave a voice mail. My point of this message is about the "the group". I felt at the time that something was going on. I do not own NSAM, and never have. Now with today's action, it looks like "the group" sold out of NSAM. Just my two cents worth with the action today and no apparent reason.