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ValueVision Media, AŞ Message Board

rsparker23 54 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Jun 1, 2006
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  • rsparker23 by rsparker23 22 hours ago Flag

    new filing this afternoon--ASF deal closed

  • Reply to

    Spectrum clearing target

    by rsparker23 Apr 29, 2016 12:45 PM
    rsparker23 rsparker23 Apr 29, 2016 12:50 PM Flag

    The FCC will be sending out letters to stations getting the bad news that even though they wanted to give up spectrum, the FCC won't need them. Those who are participating will also learn at what level they are needed--giving up specturm and exiting--or sharing--or moving to another channel.

  • rsparker23 by rsparker23 Apr 29, 2016 12:45 PM Flag

    126 MHz top of the 42-126 range that they established last yr

    Preston Padden, who led a coalition of companies interested in participating in the auction, said that the 126 MHz “far exceeds early estimates of likely broadcaster participation.”

    The bidding in the reverse auction — the initial phase of the complex auction process — will begin on May 31. There will be mock auctions on May 25 and 26.

  • Reply to

    $22.50 per share

    by tarzanevine Apr 21, 2016 12:13 PM
    rsparker23 rsparker23 Apr 21, 2016 12:19 PM Flag

    HSN is .77 x sales

  • rsparker23 rsparker23 Apr 18, 2016 4:12 PM Flag

    the gap from 5.7 down to 3.7 should get filled at a minimum.

  • rsparker23 rsparker23 Apr 18, 2016 3:23 PM Flag

    i think 6+ is very possible given the poor comps from last yr and the newly found recognition of what it mean to run a public company.. they have enough to work with that the performance could be juiced significantly this yr. less optimistic about the future (although i have to think rosenblatt is thinking sale after driving the stock up in the 7-10 range. This stock recovery has quite a ways to go.

  • rsparker23 rsparker23 Apr 8, 2016 5:20 PM Flag

    Yes it is very unlikely. They do need some concessions to lower their expense. What they have reduced so far, plus additional expense reductions and restoration of margins along with whatever they get from the Boston station and insider buying would have a powerful impact on stock price. There is no future as a standalone company but there are real prospects for a much improved stock price based on what they are doing this yr. And then I would imagine they try to find a buyer.

  • Reply to

    ALL FOR ONE AND ONE FOR ALLl

    by tarzanevine Mar 31, 2016 12:36 PM
    rsparker23 rsparker23 Apr 1, 2016 2:32 PM Flag

    i agree that he appears to looking at 20mm EBITDA. if sales grow @ 3% @ 35% GM (above last yrs 34.4 but below prior yrs 36-36.3) and op expenses are flat hes looking at EBITDA of 20mm and a much higher stock price.

  • Reply to

    Insider Buying allowed now?

    by tarzanevine Mar 14, 2016 2:08 PM
    rsparker23 rsparker23 Mar 31, 2016 12:04 PM Flag

    this is probably a good indication that Rosenblatt or Peterman is going to be CEO, From BR's comments about tutoring the new CEO I would imagine TP is being considered. BR mentioned he came from a finance background and values those qualities. There were other buys as well from the controller, chief counsel and the HR head and we would not see all these buys if an unknown CEO was going to come in with the associated uncertainty as to resultant staff changes. An outside CEO wouldn't want to agree to have to hold on to all of these people in these positions so it appears evident they have the CEO plan in place. cluster insider buying is clearly a good sign for investors

  • Reply to

    FCC Spectrum Auction...has started

    by tarzanevine Mar 30, 2016 11:55 AM
    rsparker23 rsparker23 Mar 30, 2016 12:51 PM Flag

    Blackstone recently sold stations in baltimore, buffalo and detroit for 5% of the opening price. they held on to other stations. I have to think that if there was a big number in this bozek would have sold the station in advance to get some cash given the deteriorating liquidity situation he got the company into as the yr wore on last year.

  • Reply to

    FCC Spectrum Auction...has started

    by tarzanevine Mar 30, 2016 11:55 AM
    rsparker23 rsparker23 Mar 30, 2016 12:43 PM Flag

    I'm sticking with 10-15mm. would love for you to be right, but put chances at over 50mm at virtually zero. would be elated if they could get as much as 20mm,

  • Reply to

    Need something dramatic

    by tarzanevine Mar 29, 2016 2:53 PM
    rsparker23 rsparker23 Mar 30, 2016 11:39 AM Flag

    i don't see anything dramatic but there are small things that done together (called execution!) can have a big impact on stock price. The recently announced expense reduction, some reduction in near term carriage cost, some amt for boston, some creation of new customers can combine to bring the results back to where they were a cpl yrs ago from an ebitda perspective and would help the stock greatly. the are clearly completely focused on strategies that will help the stock price so investors should have a tail wind for a while.

  • Reply to

    Optimism or Pessimism

    by jumbo53226 Mar 28, 2016 8:34 PM
    rsparker23 rsparker23 Mar 29, 2016 12:51 AM Flag

    I'd have to agree although they are doing what they need to do in an attempt to recover from a yr of poor execution. I think the stock will recover somewhat from these efforts but I doubt there are positive vibes there right now.

  • Reply to

    Our newst best friend: Karsten Amlie

    by tarzanevine Mar 28, 2016 5:24 PM
    rsparker23 rsparker23 Mar 28, 2016 6:43 PM Flag

    I think he's based in florida. Hopefully Bob will have him over to the house to talk carriage

  • Reply to

    Feeding Frenzy?

    by mr_harry_lime Mar 28, 2016 1:26 PM
    rsparker23 rsparker23 Mar 28, 2016 3:25 PM Flag

    mgmt team on their website has been revised with some new additions. Look to be existing employees who have had their roles expanded and/or elevated.

  • Reply to

    World Domination: LOL

    by tarzanevine Mar 23, 2016 9:27 AM
    rsparker23 rsparker23 Mar 24, 2016 3:01 PM Flag

    Probably would take a 6% drop in carriage fees to get to break even in 2016 with 3% sales growth, 35% margin and 2% increase in other expenses. I would imagine they will go for some front loaded near term savings in carriage negotiations even if it costs them more in the future. They have to get the stock price up either to allow for a better exit price via a sale or to get the stock back into a position of being a funding vehicle if they do think there are longer term prospects to build the company. I think it is clear that they need performance to improve now and aren't interested in hurting performance now with the hope that it is setting up a brighter future.

  • Reply to

    World Domination: LOL

    by tarzanevine Mar 23, 2016 9:27 AM
    rsparker23 rsparker23 Mar 23, 2016 11:45 AM Flag

    3% sales growth, 35.2% GM, 2% increase in G&A and Dist/Selling expenses and they are back to 2013 EBITDA of 17mm. loss would be greater than in 2013 due to higher interest costs. If they can show signs of being able to do this modest improvement the stock will return from the dead somewhat.

    they lost customers last yr which is incredible given the addition of well known personalities. they obviously have to answer the "why?" question correctly. For comparison 2012-2014 showed 8%, 18% and 7% customer growth respectively with a strategy of basically no new product. incredible failure of strategy/execution last yr.

  • Reply to

    Q4 and FY Release

    by tarzanevine Mar 23, 2016 7:57 AM
    rsparker23 rsparker23 Mar 23, 2016 8:20 AM Flag

    I can't imagine they find someone to run this mess. My guess is rosenblatt and Peterman ride it out and try to improve operational performance so they can sell the company for something

  • Reply to

    Q4 and FY Release

    by tarzanevine Mar 23, 2016 7:57 AM
    rsparker23 rsparker23 Mar 23, 2016 8:15 AM Flag

    Burnett is gone per a filing. Total customer count dropped year over year. I wonder how much that name has hurt. By all accounts they have attracted vendors that should attract attention but total customer are down after rising briskly the last cpl of yrs under the previous mgmt strategy.

  • Reply to

    Financing Deal

    by connect_the_ooo Mar 15, 2016 1:32 PM
    rsparker23 rsparker23 Mar 17, 2016 12:38 PM Flag

    prepayment penalty is 3% of loan balance first year drops to 2% second year, 1% 3rd year and then 0% afterwards.

    their deal with PNC requires their cash + remaining revolver avail to be at least 18mm before ebitda and fixed charge covenants kick in. I have them with about a 22mm cushion (based on the 40mm cash + revolver avail they disclosed in their 4th qtr preliminary numbers) before this new loan so this should give them plenty of room near term from a liquidity perspective unless they start to burn cash at a higher rate. they are limited to 10mm in Cap Ex/yr so they are limited in investment they can make.

    its costly insurance for sure and hopefully it is just insurance (as opposed to expectations of a big uptick in cash burn) to get them through the next year so they can improve ebitda and/or get some cash for boston without investors having to worry about liquidity.