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JDS Uniphase Corporation Message Board

rspiland3 5 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 14, 2014 12:07 PM Member since: Feb 23, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Nx-1207

    by mhk_md100 Sep 12, 2014 11:27 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Sep 14, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    Thanks for the insight. I'm not a doc, but I'm curious about your comment regarding NX-1207 replacing invasive therapies such as PK TURP, etc. My understanding is that BPH patients usually try drugs first, then move on to more invasive treatments if there is no improvement. Assuming the unblinded efficacy and side effect data is good and the drug is approved, wouldn't NX-1207 be a preferable treatment option BEFORE considering the more invasive alternatives? Thanks again.

  • Reply to

    Holy S. TIS Suit is DONE!!

    by jorlev1164m Sep 8, 2014 4:08 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Sep 8, 2014 4:25 PM Flag

    Clearing the decks of all litigation...should be bullish. IMHO MITK should have acquired TISA when the stock was at $6...global sales footprint, complementary business, a small profit, and one less competitor. Might still be a possibility, but need a higher stock price. With all litigation settled, it's all about fundamentals. If MITK can ramp up a little sequential revenue growth this quarter, it should show a small profit, and long-suffering holders might finally catch a break!

  • Reply to

    New Member

    by soyllo Aug 8, 2014 1:22 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Aug 10, 2014 11:29 AM Flag

    Good point about fully diluted shares...will fix that. But I'm sticking with my $3,000 per treatment estimate for now, and I actually think both of our procedure numbers could be conservative. Good exercise though...

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    New Member

    by soyllo Aug 8, 2014 1:22 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Aug 9, 2014 6:25 PM Flag

    One more thing...I think these numbers are extremely conservative. If they get 20% penetration of the oral market, then peak sales would be $2.58 billon, NYMX revs would be $387 million, Net Income $217 million or $6.20 per share. You can play around with the numbers to get your own estimates, but if the drug is approvable, the stock is worth a LOT more. But the risk is that the drug is not significantly better than the placebo...that would suck.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    New Member

    by soyllo Aug 8, 2014 1:22 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Aug 9, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    Phase 3 trials have been completed and interim safety and efficacy data have been released...all appears good. Unblinded data should be announced any time. Thing to watch is control group, because previous trials have shown an elevated response from patients receiving a placebo. If favorable results are released, expect an NDA within 3-5 months, and expect a U.S. licensing agreement with bigger pharma company. Under this scenario, they could receive approval in early-mid 2016. I think the most important data released so far has been the safety data, which was great. Even a mediocre efficacy result should make the drug approvable.

    The CEO owns 31% of the company, and there is at least one other strategic investor...don't know much about them. Management runs the company like it was private...won't talk about the chemistry of the product, potential partnerships, or the timeline toward approval. They have no interest in talking to Wall Street, because they don't need capital. But they have managed dilution extremely well compared with other developmental biotech companies. And as noted, interim data has been quite good.

    Assuming approval, NYMX addresses a huge market. Currently 3.3 million men take oral medications with mediocre efficacy and problematic side effects. Another 200,000 per year have surgery, and those numbers are growing. Importantly, urologists will get paid much more for administering this drug than they do to simply write a prescription...they have major incentive to push it! I've assumed they get all the surgery patients and 10% of oral patients, or 530,000 patients in total by 2021. If you assume the drug sells for $3,000 then peak sales could be around $1.6 billion. Royalties typically range from 13%-19%, so if you assume 15%, then sales should be around $240 million and net income $150 million, or $4.29 per share. A 15X multiple gets you to $65 in 5 years. Discounted at 25%, todays price should be $20-22. Hope that helps!

    Sentiment: Buy

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