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JDS Uniphase Corporation Message Board

rspiland3 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 14, 2015 8:51 PM Member since: Feb 23, 2012
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  • Reply to

    CIEN will be bought by CSCO

    by tbradman Apr 14, 2015 11:54 AM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Apr 14, 2015 8:51 PM Flag

    I'm with calbears86...ERIC is the more likely buyer. ERIC has over $5 bil in net cash ($8 bil total) and little growth. They have a history of tuck-in acquisitions, but haven't done one recently. A CIEN acquisition would add $2.5 bil to revs and would be accretive immediately. Also a better fit strategically.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Expect to report on or before May 31, 2015. Not a lot to go on here, but it is noted that ESI expects to report a pretax gain for the year 2014 vs. a $37.2 mil pretax loss in 2013. And losses related to loan guarantee programs should be less than $5 mil vs. $91 mil losses last year...on balance pretty bullish.

    I estimate that ESI was on a run rate to deliver around $2.00 per share in normalized earnings through the first half, which puts the stock at around 3.5X earnings compared with 17X for the group. And preliminary 3Q enrollments were better than expected. PEAKs loan losses are mostly to be recognized in 2014, so profitability should rebound in 2015. While I'm disappointed I have to wait another 2 months for results, limited info in this filing is very encouraging. This is going to be a seriously bad short...squeeze will be awesome!

  • Reply to

    Sad

    by friendsdontletfriendsitt Mar 10, 2015 3:12 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Mar 11, 2015 8:59 PM Flag

    You're boring dude. You've already acknowledged that government collusion with not-for-profit colleges is corrupt and is harming students. The discipline of the free market and rule of law is far more efficient and effective than rule-by-regulator...otherwise the USSR and PRC would reign supreme. There are abuses under either system. The difference is that in free markets, abuses can be rectified; under a regulatory state, they are permanent. ESI, APOL, STRA, and others have innovated to serve students while not-for-profit schools have built new dorms, rec centers, and admin buildings. These stocks will be fine unless we progress to outright fascism. You should just give it up.

  • CECO 4Q New Student Enrollments for Continuing Ops rose 9.1% Total Enrollments for Continuing Ops only down 4.5%. For profit education is not dead!...These numbers bode well for ESI, since CECO is considered a more troubled and less profitable company. Still need to get those 3Q and 4Q numbers, but ESI should get a big sympathy bounce tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Bullish Analyst Meeting

    by rspiland3 Feb 13, 2015 3:19 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Feb 13, 2015 7:41 PM Flag

    Not too surprised at today's softness after a nice week. There's technical resistance around $32 which likely is influencing shorter-term traders. All I'm saying is the fundamentals are strong and getting stronger, and the improvement is not reflected in many analyst's projections. I've owned this stock since spring of 2012, and it's already a five-bagger. I'm confident it will be a 10-bagger with a decent dividend yield before I have to sell it.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • I think F2015 and F2016 estimates both have to rise, probably next week. Low estimates are $3.23 and $2.70 respectively. I think MU earns close to $4.00 this year and at least $4.50 in F2016. Bears just don't recognize the importance of industry consolidation. There's no price spoiler! Free cash should translate into a first-ever dividend by late 2015 or early 2016. I think this stock goes to the $40s by spring and maybe $50 by year-end. Bad short...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why would BlackRock but this dog?

    by dahnshaulis Feb 4, 2015 11:46 AM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Feb 6, 2015 7:43 PM Flag

    That's been out there for years, and it's a great trick for middle-class underperformers. I know a kid who got rejected at William & Mary and is pursuing that route. Upper middle class, went to an elite prep school, and really wants W&M, so she's full-time at the local community college and planning to transfer.

    I also know a poor, struggling kid, single mom, living at home with her own mother and making good grades at Old Dominion University. She bagged ODU for Strayer because (1) the schedule enabled her to work, (2) the campus was in her neighborhood, and (3) it had online classes. It costs more, but she can get her degree; ODU's rigid schedule made that impossible given her circumstances. STRA has a good reputation in business and has an excellent placement rate, so it sounds like a smart decision.

    Last regulatory cycle in for-profit education was early 1990s, and about 25% of the companies closed. So far this cycle, we are at around 15%. COCO was the high water mark. More will close, but they will likely be small vocational schools teaching hair design, cosmetology, etc....fields which require training and a license, but don't pay enough to meet gainful employment rules. Maybe instead those students can go to community college, transfer to UVA or W&M and all become investment bankers or politicians.

  • Reply to

    Wells Fargo reiterates outperform on ESI

    by rspiland3 Feb 4, 2015 3:10 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Feb 5, 2015 3:05 PM Flag

    Urdan's favorable rating is based on the expectation of improving fundamentals and a rock-bottom valuation. The possibility of an asset sale, unencumbered by the lawsuit, is simply a fringe benefit which should theoretically improve current valuations. Placement rates and average starting wages have been improving for several quarters. And enrollments are showing signs of stabilization and should begin to grow. Valuation range reflects 3.0-3.5X2016 EBITDA plus cash minus estimated SEC settlement. Still cheap, as the group trades at 5.5-6.5X EV/EBITDA.

    I own it too, and I'm expecting improving fundamentals to drive the stock. But I think Modany's resignation becomes effective this week, and no replacement has been announced. So I wouldn't be surprised if they're shopping the whole company, maybe to private equity or an activist investor. I would be #$%$ if they sold for less than $15!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why would BlackRock but this dog?

    by dahnshaulis Feb 4, 2015 11:46 AM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Feb 5, 2015 1:21 PM Flag

    That argument would be more credible if public and private not-for-profit schools were held to the same accountability standards as the for-profit sector. Low-income students and single parents are known to have higher default rates and lower completion rates than middle or upper-class students. That is true at both for-profit and not-for-profit schools. So you think any state school's sociology, gender studies, art programs, etc. could meet the gainful employment rule?...doubt it. So why are kids borrowing $50,000-$100,000 to get a degree which barely offers a subsistence wage? And who is advising them? And how do not-for-profit schools continue to raise tuitions and fees so fast, funding gleaming new dorms, gym's, rec centers, and admin buildings, even as grads wages are stagnant?

    No question there have been past oversights and perhaps abuses in the for-profit ed sector. But IMHO the abuses are worse and are ongoing at not-for-profit schools. And the DOE, having asserted its de facto monopoly over student aid is complicit in the not-for-profits' abuses. For-profit schools have led the way in developing online courses, they put campuses in locations which are accessible to the students, and they offer upward mobility to students who can least attain it. As usual, the democrats are raising the first rung of the ladder on the pretense of providing "protection."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Citing the CFPB's release of ECMC from any potential liability associated with that company's acquisition of Corinthian's (COCO) assets. Analyst sees the settlement as a positive for ESI as it means the CFPB lawsuit need not be an insurmountable obstacle to an asset sale. Target valuation range is $15-16.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why would BlackRock but this dog?

    by dahnshaulis Feb 4, 2015 11:46 AM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Feb 4, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    Correct 5. to read Normalized eps estimate is around $2.00... :-)
    Still a bad short idea!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Why would BlackRock but this dog?

    by dahnshaulis Feb 4, 2015 11:46 AM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Feb 4, 2015 12:30 PM Flag

    1. Regulatory headwinds began to abate with the less-bad-than-expected final Gainful Employment rule.
    2. D of E has little appetite for a repeat of the embarrassment it suffered by forcing COCO out of business.
    3. Most recent enrollment data shows stabilization, and even growth in certain areas.
    4. Bulk of the PEAKS loan losses will be recognized in 2014.
    5. Normalized eps are around $2.00 per share, suggesting P/E multiple of around 4X-5X vs industry at 17X.
    6. Sufficient cash and borrowing power to settle all outstanding litigation within the next 6-12 months.

    In consideration of the above this stock looks like a really BAD short at these levels!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rspiland3 rspiland3 Nov 20, 2014 2:19 PM Flag

    Besides improving fundamentals, today's upside reversal appears to be bullish as well. Shorts aren't going to like this stock at all!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 2Q 10Q is out, and numbers don't look too bad. There's a lot of noise in the numbers, but PEAKS losses are clearing out, and earnings ex non-recurring items look north of $2.00 for the year. Insolvency concerns appear to be off the table completely. Major short squeeze is my forecast...stock should be worth at least 8-10X earnings before 3Q and 2015 outlook on Dec 15.

  • Reply to

    Doesn't look good at all

    by freetzwilly Nov 19, 2014 10:50 AM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Nov 19, 2014 12:52 PM Flag

    Why? Not much value added here...stock is trading at about 4X next year's earnings. PEAKS Trust losses are mostly to be recognized this year, and the company has ample cash to cover those liabilities. Regulatory headwinds appear to be abating; even the final GE rules were less bad than initially feared. When they bring SEC filings into compliance over the next few weeks, the valuation should start to become more aligned with the rest of the group...which is about 19X 2015 estimates. Doesn't sound ugly to me unless you are short!

  • Reply to

    this place has gotten pretty boring lately

    by allen.hancock02 Nov 17, 2014 7:55 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Nov 17, 2014 8:05 PM Flag

    Yeah, it's great! Now that everyone is gone, the stock is free to keep rising. I miss Jorlev though...thoughtful analyst. Cheers!

  • Reply to

    Help me understand TISA vs MITK valuation

    by wcw1068 Nov 12, 2014 5:56 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Nov 12, 2014 6:24 PM Flag

    Valuation differential reflects expected growth rather than historic performance. Bulls think mobile RDC, MPBP, mobile account opening, etc. will have much more robust growth than TISA's core eFlow document capture business. Although TISA seems to have launched some mobile products, they have not yet gained ANY traction in that market. So with 100% market share, MITK is really the only way to play it.

  • Reply to

    Does MITK get paid per check deposit?

    by eulav98 Nov 10, 2014 10:49 AM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Nov 10, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    At 10% sequential growth, it would equate to 28% y/y growth for the entire year, and 46% year over year for the final quarter.

  • Reply to

    Does MITK get paid per check deposit?

    by eulav98 Nov 10, 2014 10:49 AM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Nov 10, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    I should add that past few quarters, management said transaction growth was "double digits" sequentially. It was not mentioned on this quarters' call, but probably continues at a similar rate...translates to at least 46% annual growth.

  • Reply to

    Does MITK get paid per check deposit?

    by eulav98 Nov 10, 2014 10:49 AM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Nov 10, 2014 12:25 PM Flag

    Sliding scale starts at 12 cents per deposit for 1 million deposits. They won't tell investors how low the price points go or what the volume breakpoints are. But when the blended price approaches the low end of the scale, revenue and transaction growth should converge. We have to be getting closer. And when that happens, it should be good for sales and profits.

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