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JDS Uniphase Corporation Message Board

rspiland3 8 posts  |  Last Activity: Jun 30, 2015 11:38 PM Member since: Feb 23, 2012
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  • Reply to

    BoA: 63% mobile customers now use MCD

    by nadullah62 Jun 29, 2015 6:56 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Jun 30, 2015 11:38 PM Flag

    I'm with the bulls here. MITK was such a drag I almost stopped watching...always a great story, borderline cheap, but a disappointing performer. But I never sold, and added on dips, so now it's actually a pretty big position. MCD is still growing, and Mobile Account Opening and Balance Transfer have good potential. But I'm really excited about Identity Verification, and not just for banks. Migration to the cloud and the "Internet of Things" changes everything. And although identity verification is pretty secure in transactions for products, it is nowhere for cloud-based transactions for services. It may be a long shot, but if technology is as robust as MCD, then this is a huge market. And MITK could become a very hot stock.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Comprehensive fact base for ESI

    by boardman_ohio_trailerpark Jun 5, 2015 3:34 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Jun 11, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    Nice work! I concur with all of the above, which is why I am long size. Risk remains a corrupt and hostile legal/political environment. Regulatory cycle seems to be receding; I think COCO was the high-water mark for this regulatory cycle. Management actually has many levers to boost shareholder value. For instance, have you considered the possibility they spin off real estate into a REIT? Resolution of suits, stabilization and a resumption of growth alone should easily support a 12-15X multiple. But there could be more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rspiland3 rspiland3 Jun 10, 2015 7:47 PM Flag

    I don't think ESI deserves the treatment they are getting, and I think their results compare favorably with those of public and private not-for-profit institutions. The stock is cheap, and I'm long. But the suits are a major risk, because the U.S. system of justice no longer offers protection under the law. This is a serious transformation in just the past couple of decades, and it deeply concerns me. Obviously the shorts are cool with that.

  • rspiland3 rspiland3 Jun 6, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    I only posted infrequently, but am still in NYMX. In fact I was in small at $5, but bought a boatload below $1. Story is still alive, but risky. If NX-1207 is approvable, it could easily be a $2 bil drug in a few years. At a 15% royalty and a 40% tax rate, that's around $4.50 per share in after-tax license revs...$50-60 stock or more. But if the current trials for BPH fail, the stock is probably worthless, because they there isn't enough cash for new trials. I like Dr. Averback, and I know urologists have high hopes for this drug. And I have confidence that they are doing everything possible to bring this drug to market. So I am willing to take the risk.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Monday close 1.3 link here delisting

    by dia1na0 Jun 6, 2015 9:05 AM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Jun 6, 2015 11:23 AM Flag

    Read more closely; ESI is NOT being delisted. They got a reprimand for not notifying the exchange prior to the press release. Sounds like a glitch in issuing the release, since it came out half an hour after the 10-K was filed. This is a non-event. People should stop fretting about this stock. It's stupid-cheap, and operating metrics appear to be stabilizing. Over time, ESI should be a great stock from here.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rspiland3 rspiland3 Jun 3, 2015 10:29 PM Flag

    I agree with this entire analysis, and I have to say "Well done!" The COCO analogy presented by bears on ESI really doesn't hold water here, because (1) COCO was not as good an educator, and (2) it didn't have nearly as good financial resources. At any rate, I think the COCO bankruptcy and the new Gainful Employment rules will turn out to be the high water marks for this regulatory cycle. ESI's improving cohort default rates and solid composite score suggest regulatory concerns should abate. It might take a while, but this is a deeply undervalued stock with a great risk/reward profile. In fact in light of the recent financials, I wouldn't be surprised if private equity might be taking a look.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    when is the conf. call i see mentioned here ?

    by tolanco May 29, 2015 3:11 PM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 May 29, 2015 3:56 PM Flag

    11:00am Tuesday June 2

  • Reply to

    CIEN will be bought by CSCO

    by tbradman Apr 14, 2015 11:54 AM
    rspiland3 rspiland3 Apr 14, 2015 8:51 PM Flag

    I'm with calbears86...ERIC is the more likely buyer. ERIC has over $5 bil in net cash ($8 bil total) and little growth. They have a history of tuck-in acquisitions, but haven't done one recently. A CIEN acquisition would add $2.5 bil to revs and would be accretive immediately. Also a better fit strategically.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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