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Apple Inc. Message Board

rube_go1dberg 48 posts  |  Last Activity: 20 hours ago Member since: Jul 7, 2006
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  • rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg 20 hours ago Flag

    Samsung's weakness is related exclusively to the fact that they sell to brain-deficient people who have a minimal of disposable income from welfare checks and purse snatchings.

  • Reply to

    What a piece of garbage

    by michalisrael157 Jul 6, 2015 10:52 AM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jul 6, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    The market is always difficult. If it was easy, everybody would be trading instead of doing day jobs. Making money in the market has to be at least as difficult as mastering any other high-pay profession like being a doctor, lawyer, airline pilot, and so on.

    The market isn't going to make it easy for you to make money on Apple either. There are always legions of naysayers, fools, and b.s. artists who seek press by attacking it. Wall Street operates on perverse principles. They tell the public to buy garbage stocks because they're cheap and to sell quality stocks because "they have no more room to run."

    Just remember that Wall Street never makes a dime on its own accounts. They only profit by fleecing investors with bad information. So, stick to your guns and trust your own judgment, then let time do its work of bringing the stock price to your target.

    Think about it this way: If Apple had run to $180 in October 2014 when Icahn said that was his target, we'd have spent the last seven months stuck at $180. So, it's just as well that we've been stuck in the $120's a while. We'll get to $180, so be glad that the opportunity to buy below it is still here.

  • rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jul 3, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    Thanks for your comments, Balooga. You've been hitting a lot of home runs lately!

    And you're right about how Steve Jobs would be reacting. He reminds me of that dog on the old "Dastardly and Muttley" cartoon frolic we used to watch when we were little kids. "Muttley" the dog was always playing pranks on people, like throwing a banana peel under their feet, then snickering when they fell down. I used to watch the cartoon just to watch that damn dog laugh. Steve Jobs had a lot of that mischievous instinct in him, but Tim Cook is all pro. He sticks to his knitting at Apple and lets the lesser players complete their own work of self-destruction.

  • Reply to

    Holding Apple

    by balooga2_2000 Jun 13, 2015 11:47 AM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jun 13, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    Thanks, for the best post on this board in the last six months. It was short, to the point, and exactly correct in every word.

  • Reply to

    2016 Election Will Be Won By......

    by balooga2_2000 Jun 13, 2015 12:34 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jun 13, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    Let's try not to talk politics here. This board is bad enough as it is with all the crackpots that already infest it. Let's don't make it any more ridiculous than it already is by mucking it up with political diatribes.

    The few intelligent posters like, you, Balooga, shold please maximize your impact by sticking to on-topic subjects about Apple.

  • rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jun 3, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    "Wall Street" also has a habit of dumping its favorites all at once after it pumps the up to overvalued levels. You wait and see how fast this biotech and social media high flyers with 100x PE's come crashing down when Wall Street wants new toys to play with. Slow and steady Apple wins the race.

  • Reply to

    Frustrating!

    by captchip14 Jun 3, 2015 12:52 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jun 3, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    The market is always going to frustrate you. It has to be that way. If making money in the market was easy, everybody would be doing it, and nobody would have a day job. Making money in the market has to be as difficult as making money in any other complex profession like being a doctor or airline pilot or a business owner. The market can't be any easier than that. If it was, then we wouldn't have any doctors or airline pilots or business owners. They'd be home all day making easy money trading stocks.

    Once you understand that principle you can start to relax and let the market go to work for you. Keep your apple and let it do its job in your port of rising 15% to 30% per year with less downside risk than other stocks. The 15% to 30% is a range. There will be some years where you get the low end, and others the high end. Since Apple is already up about 17% for the year, you have to patient to wait for the next 13% between now and the end of year. But still, 30% a year is pretty damned good. You're beating the market by a factor of 5x to 10x. How many money funds do you know of that ever outperform the market?

  • rube_go1dberg by rube_go1dberg May 24, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    Apple is in the tech group with cohorts of CRM, WDAY, RHT, SWKS, NFLX, and AMZN. Take a look at the valuations of this group. The PE's range from infinity (negative earnings in the denominator) on down to the 50. The price to sales, except for Amazon, range from 8 to 20. The first time a company with a valuation that extreme misses by a penny, or disappoints in any way, it comes crashing back down. Savvy investors are not going to keep pouring money into this group and upping the ante on the amount of risk they're going to take during the next market downturn or disappointment in earnings.

    The money has to go somewhere, and that "somewhere" is very likely to be Apple, whose growth rate is above the market and PE below it. This crazy idea that "Apple is a one-trick pony whose smartphone lead will be diminished by competition is being debunked. The Iphone demand is sustainable, and there is every reason to believe that Apple will increase its dominance in coming quarters. Android is the dinosaur here.

    Then there is Apple's close alliances with Salesforce (CRM) and IBM. Whose smartphones and tablets are those market leaders going to be pushing their employees and customers to use?

    Apple critics have exhausted their credibility in dissing the watch before it was even on sale. Now it appears to be yet another blockbuster product.

    These ideas are percolating into the market. Given Apple's low valuation relative to is peers, money managers understand that Apple is one of the few compelling values left in the market.

  • Reply to

    Schwab acct question

    by glock2u May 21, 2015 6:11 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg May 21, 2015 6:51 PM Flag

    I concur. I've been using Schwab for thirty years. Have turned over tens of millions in trades during that time and have never had complaints. Unless a stock or option is thinly traded it doesn't make sense to use limit orders to me either. I suppose some people use them because they're doing other things and can't keep a close enough eye on the market to make their trades in real time. Bu you're opening yourself up execution problems with limit orders. Market orders are always executed immediately. Limit orders can bunch up together in queue and not be executed at the price you expect.

  • rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg May 20, 2015 7:48 AM Flag

    Thanks for the heads up! Kudos on being one of the first human beings on Planet Earth to own an Apple Watch. Glad to hear it's met, and apparently exceeded, your expectations!

  • Reply to

    A simple way to understand why apple is so undervalued

    by ditzil May 19, 2015 12:46 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg May 19, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    Apple is undervalued for a couple reasons. First, it is so big that it can never be acquired by another company. Thus, there is no potential takeover premium to lift the stock.

    Secondly, Wall Street doesn't like Apple, because Apple doesn't need Wall Street. Apple is self-financing. They are never going to call on Goldman Sachs to underwrite a secondary offering (thereby scamming 8% commission) or see advice (i.e. pay a huge commission) to receive advice on mergers and acquisitions. Apple can handle those things with its in-house people.

    Wall Street firms therefore don't like Apple, or are at best indifferent to it. They are going to bad-mouth it at all opportunities. It really angers them when retail investors buy Apple stock. "The rubes are buying Apple without our permission. Why, we'll show THEM who's boss!"

  • Reply to

    Sheepdiddler must cover again making his

    by mr_nakamura May 18, 2015 10:05 AM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg May 18, 2015 10:15 AM Flag

    That guy doesn't trade. He's a laid off former Apple employee pretending to be somebody important. Anonymous message boards attract those kinds of people.

  • Reply to

    Disappointing criminal game

    by michalisrael157 May 15, 2015 4:20 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg May 17, 2015 1:01 PM Flag

    Apple has already give ups 15% this year, and will probably make it another 10% or better before year end. Anybody who can't be satisfied with 25% on a low-risk stock is too impatient to be in stocks. Try options for a higher risk / reward profile.

  • Reply to

    Apple Longs Should Not Worry

    by balooga2_2000 May 13, 2015 2:49 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg May 13, 2015 3:26 PM Flag

    Your take is very perceptive. The market is sick at the moment. The failure of Apple to break out to new highs after earnings, and then drift lower at the close of each and every day is symptomatic of a market with a hangover from the huge gains of the last six years. So, the market will meander a while. I think Apple will start to pick up in the next two quarters when sustainability of earnings is demonstrated. IMO it would be a mistake to get out of Apple now and "chase heat" in the speculative tech stocks like CRM, which are selling at 12 times REVENUES. The "hot stuff" will be obliterated if the market takes a big dump. Apple might go down 10% but not more, since it is so undervalued relative to its earnings growth.

    Apple's rise above $130 has been delayed by a weak market, but weak markets eventually heal themselves. Apple will reach its fair value in time.

  • rube_go1dberg by rube_go1dberg May 12, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    I bought by first batch last October between $98 and $103. Sold about 15% of that during the retracement down to $29. Buying again in the $125's. A good place to reload and wait for next earnings.

  • Reply to

    the day aapl died

    by takeiteasy_u2 May 11, 2015 2:27 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg May 11, 2015 2:49 PM Flag

    That was a test to see if the problem with posting was fixed. Apparently it has been. Now I'll test the Ignore button.

  • Reply to

    the day aapl died

    by takeiteasy_u2 May 11, 2015 2:27 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg May 11, 2015 2:31 PM Flag

    Don't you wish you had the money to "take advantage" of anything other than a $2.00 streetwalker?

  • That will take 10% of the float off the market this year and another 10% next. Every trading day Apple will be absorbing over $300 million of its stock. That's $1.5 billion going off the market every week. The growth is 28% and the PE is less than 17. Feel free to bet against all that if you like.

  • Reply to

    how are all those aapl long calls doing?

    by hot1tip Apr 29, 2015 1:02 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Apr 29, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    IMO there were a couple of surprises:

    1. Iphone sales beat estimates by 6%

    2. Profits beat by a similar percentage, so gross profit is holding strong.

    3. Buy backs exceeded expectations by 20%.

    4. If you take Tim Cook's words literally, the watch is exceeding expectations. Some on the Street said they didn't like the TONE of Cook's words, but would you bet on Tim Cook or a no-name Wall Street analyst?

    5. Cook said that only 20% of customers have upgraded to Iphone 6's and there's room to keep growing 28% YOY for the rest of the year.

    6. Cook hinted at Apple TV coming on line this year.

    So, overall, I think it's fair to say that they surprised in exceeding expectations.

  • Reply to

    how are all those aapl long calls doing?

    by hot1tip Apr 29, 2015 1:02 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Apr 29, 2015 1:25 PM Flag

    My 2016 Leaps @ $100 are doing fine, thank you very little. Bought 'em in the 10's through 12's last Otober, and have sold off 15% of the position in the 20's and 30's, for 100% to 160% profit. Holding the other 85% until expiration.

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