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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

rube_go1dberg 33 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Jul 7, 2006
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  • rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg 4 hours ago Flag

    Aren't those guys over there supposed to commit hairy kairy when they lose their life savings? The most remarkable aspect of this story is that out of 1.2 billion people they can only come up with this one guy who lost his life savings. I'm sure lots of others got hurt, but if this guy was the worst, then the stock meltdown is containable.

  • Reply to

    Sorry-this falls on TC

    by stealthtradeinc Jul 22, 2015 12:56 AM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jul 24, 2015 12:32 AM Flag

    I think Cook would have been walking into a trap if he had done what you suggest. What if China falls off a cliff this quarter and Iphone sales get cut in half? That's a 1% probability, but what if it happens? Everybody would have called Cook a "liar" and class action suits would be flying. Who needs any of that. Wall Street is supposed to have the most sophisticated stock market analysts ever conceived. If they're not going to want to buy a stock that increases earnings 36%, then there's nothing that going to come out of the CEO's mouth to convince them.

    Apple is doing fine. It's up 25% since last October. If that's all it does between now and next October, it's done it's job. The market goes up 6% a year. Apple goes up 4x that amount. It's doing what it's supposed to.

    Also consider what is going to happen to Amazon or Netflix the next time they "disappoint." Wall Street will be just as quick to trash them as they are to hype them. Let Amazon or Netflix miss by a penny next quarter and watch the stock get cut in half. Apple has a different profile, so be content to let it be what it is.

  • Reply to

    Will AAPL beat be treated as Goog or nflx?

    by michalisrael157 Jul 17, 2015 12:45 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jul 17, 2015 12:57 PM Flag

    That's why Apple has to keep buying its stock back. Wall Street doesn't have the money or the brains to be in Apple, so Apple has to own itself.

  • rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jul 17, 2015 12:53 PM Flag

    I've worked with a few razor-sharp analysts who studied companies in deep depth and uncovered looming events (usually bad ones) affecting a company's earnings way before the company announced them to the public. So, I am not knocking on all analysts. But most of them ARE stupid. They keep ranting about each Apple earnings report being a one-off that can never be repeated. They are completely wrong. Nothing is more continuous than sales of Iphones.

    The only thing non-continuous about it is that units sold and profits per unit will keep accelerating as Apple continues to innovate and upgrade the product line and plug more things like Apple Pay and Apple Music into it.

  • Reply to

    Iran Will Be A Great Market For Apple

    by balooga2_2000 Jul 15, 2015 11:30 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jul 16, 2015 1:00 AM Flag

    Are you sure about that? Don't most of them ride camels?

  • Reply to

    Neil Young complains about sound quality....

    by docproc1_2000 Jul 15, 2015 4:53 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jul 16, 2015 12:59 AM Flag

    You're exaggerating his musical legacy. He put out two decent songs, OLD MAN and HEART OF GOLD. That's all. He is a smart guy, though, not doubt at all about that.

  • Reply to

    Not looking good for Greece

    by joeshmoe1234z Jul 11, 2015 8:33 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jul 11, 2015 10:43 PM Flag

    There's never a Fuhrer around when you need one....

  • Reply to

    Not looking good for Greece

    by joeshmoe1234z Jul 11, 2015 8:33 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jul 11, 2015 10:40 PM Flag

    The Germans need to send in some of those goose-stepping storm troopers to restore order like they did in '41.

  • Reply to

    Not looking good for Greece

    by joeshmoe1234z Jul 11, 2015 8:33 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jul 11, 2015 10:35 PM Flag

    If everybody owned Apple stock they'd be able to retire at age 45, like I did. Then the damn Germans and Greeks could stop fighting about whether to retire at 58 or 65.

  • Reply to

    Dan Nathan on fast money last night said,

    by pauldempsey Jun 16, 2015 2:37 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jul 11, 2015 2:30 PM Flag

    Fall is two months away, so #$%$ is he syaing? If Apple is $132 by September, then that's, what, a 40% gain YOY? Then it would be poised to run toward $160 by January.

  • Reply to

    UAL and WSJ and NYSE all Go Down

    by balooga2_2000 Jul 8, 2015 3:07 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jul 8, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    I think it's more than coincidence too. Maybe something higher up on the Internet food chain stopped working and filtered its way down into high-volume corporate databases at UAL and the NYSE.

    It could be related to a cyber attack that hasn't been identified, or if it has been identified can't be made public.

  • rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jul 6, 2015 10:40 PM Flag

    Samsung's weakness is related exclusively to the fact that they sell to brain-deficient people who have a minimal of disposable income from welfare checks and purse snatchings.

  • Reply to

    What a piece of garbage

    by michalisrael157 Jul 6, 2015 10:52 AM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jul 6, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    The market is always difficult. If it was easy, everybody would be trading instead of doing day jobs. Making money in the market has to be at least as difficult as mastering any other high-pay profession like being a doctor, lawyer, airline pilot, and so on.

    The market isn't going to make it easy for you to make money on Apple either. There are always legions of naysayers, fools, and b.s. artists who seek press by attacking it. Wall Street operates on perverse principles. They tell the public to buy garbage stocks because they're cheap and to sell quality stocks because "they have no more room to run."

    Just remember that Wall Street never makes a dime on its own accounts. They only profit by fleecing investors with bad information. So, stick to your guns and trust your own judgment, then let time do its work of bringing the stock price to your target.

    Think about it this way: If Apple had run to $180 in October 2014 when Icahn said that was his target, we'd have spent the last seven months stuck at $180. So, it's just as well that we've been stuck in the $120's a while. We'll get to $180, so be glad that the opportunity to buy below it is still here.

  • rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jul 3, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    Thanks for your comments, Balooga. You've been hitting a lot of home runs lately!

    And you're right about how Steve Jobs would be reacting. He reminds me of that dog on the old "Dastardly and Muttley" cartoon frolic we used to watch when we were little kids. "Muttley" the dog was always playing pranks on people, like throwing a banana peel under their feet, then snickering when they fell down. I used to watch the cartoon just to watch that damn dog laugh. Steve Jobs had a lot of that mischievous instinct in him, but Tim Cook is all pro. He sticks to his knitting at Apple and lets the lesser players complete their own work of self-destruction.

  • Reply to

    Holding Apple

    by balooga2_2000 Jun 13, 2015 11:47 AM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jun 13, 2015 1:57 PM Flag

    Thanks, for the best post on this board in the last six months. It was short, to the point, and exactly correct in every word.

  • Reply to

    2016 Election Will Be Won By......

    by balooga2_2000 Jun 13, 2015 12:34 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jun 13, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    Let's try not to talk politics here. This board is bad enough as it is with all the crackpots that already infest it. Let's don't make it any more ridiculous than it already is by mucking it up with political diatribes.

    The few intelligent posters like, you, Balooga, shold please maximize your impact by sticking to on-topic subjects about Apple.

  • rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jun 3, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    "Wall Street" also has a habit of dumping its favorites all at once after it pumps the up to overvalued levels. You wait and see how fast this biotech and social media high flyers with 100x PE's come crashing down when Wall Street wants new toys to play with. Slow and steady Apple wins the race.

  • Reply to

    Frustrating!

    by captchip14 Jun 3, 2015 12:52 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg Jun 3, 2015 1:30 PM Flag

    The market is always going to frustrate you. It has to be that way. If making money in the market was easy, everybody would be doing it, and nobody would have a day job. Making money in the market has to be as difficult as making money in any other complex profession like being a doctor or airline pilot or a business owner. The market can't be any easier than that. If it was, then we wouldn't have any doctors or airline pilots or business owners. They'd be home all day making easy money trading stocks.

    Once you understand that principle you can start to relax and let the market go to work for you. Keep your apple and let it do its job in your port of rising 15% to 30% per year with less downside risk than other stocks. The 15% to 30% is a range. There will be some years where you get the low end, and others the high end. Since Apple is already up about 17% for the year, you have to patient to wait for the next 13% between now and the end of year. But still, 30% a year is pretty damned good. You're beating the market by a factor of 5x to 10x. How many money funds do you know of that ever outperform the market?

  • rube_go1dberg by rube_go1dberg May 24, 2015 12:23 PM Flag

    Apple is in the tech group with cohorts of CRM, WDAY, RHT, SWKS, NFLX, and AMZN. Take a look at the valuations of this group. The PE's range from infinity (negative earnings in the denominator) on down to the 50. The price to sales, except for Amazon, range from 8 to 20. The first time a company with a valuation that extreme misses by a penny, or disappoints in any way, it comes crashing back down. Savvy investors are not going to keep pouring money into this group and upping the ante on the amount of risk they're going to take during the next market downturn or disappointment in earnings.

    The money has to go somewhere, and that "somewhere" is very likely to be Apple, whose growth rate is above the market and PE below it. This crazy idea that "Apple is a one-trick pony whose smartphone lead will be diminished by competition is being debunked. The Iphone demand is sustainable, and there is every reason to believe that Apple will increase its dominance in coming quarters. Android is the dinosaur here.

    Then there is Apple's close alliances with Salesforce (CRM) and IBM. Whose smartphones and tablets are those market leaders going to be pushing their employees and customers to use?

    Apple critics have exhausted their credibility in dissing the watch before it was even on sale. Now it appears to be yet another blockbuster product.

    These ideas are percolating into the market. Given Apple's low valuation relative to is peers, money managers understand that Apple is one of the few compelling values left in the market.

  • Reply to

    Schwab acct question

    by glock2u May 21, 2015 6:11 PM
    rube_go1dberg rube_go1dberg May 21, 2015 6:51 PM Flag

    I concur. I've been using Schwab for thirty years. Have turned over tens of millions in trades during that time and have never had complaints. Unless a stock or option is thinly traded it doesn't make sense to use limit orders to me either. I suppose some people use them because they're doing other things and can't keep a close enough eye on the market to make their trades in real time. Bu you're opening yourself up execution problems with limit orders. Market orders are always executed immediately. Limit orders can bunch up together in queue and not be executed at the price you expect.

NRF
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