No corporation would bring any cash back to the USA under those conditions. If the repatriated money must be used for R&D, "public-private partnerships" (whatever the hell that is), etc., then none of it would be distributed to shareholders under any circumstances. Don't be deluded by these silly gimmicks.
Ultimately companies are going to have to be taxed as a percentage of what they sell in the USA, say 12% of revenues. Then it would become irrelevant where they park their cash.
You have to remember that Amazon has been down 13% during the past year, while Apple was up 45% going into its earnings. So, Amazon had some catching up to do. Also, AH trading is always suspicious, since it is done on such thin volume. Yahoo was up 6% AH yesterday, then down 6% today in normal trading.
Better than Microsoft, though. They met expectations and went down 12%. It's a weak market right now. Apple will do better when the market finds its footing.
Also be assured that Apple, or any other company that generates huge cash flow, has the ability to rectify the imbalance in stock price vs. earnings by using the earnings to buy back its stock. And that is exactly what Apple is going to do. If it has become so big that nobody on Wall Street can afford to buy into its huge market cap, then Apple will do the buying on its own.
Stock market analysts and money managers tend to over-think things. They see a stock with excellent performance like Apple, and they are going to try to conjure up negatives not to buy it. They see a garbage stock that is cheap because its fortunes are declining, and they try to convince themselves that it is a "value stock" that should be bought.
I encounter this reverse mentality among the dummies of the investing public a lot too. But it is really entrenched among professionals. It explains why it is impossible for professional money managers to beat the markets. They think they are more intelligent than the market, and that makes them more stupid. Be glad of that, because it enables the rest of us to profit. How would we possibly profit if Apple was already $200? It would be stuck there for years and years. The only way we profit is when the big money guys and the investing public act stupid. So, be glad they do.
His handle suggests he tried to circumcise himself and botched it.
Be thankful that there IS manipulation and negativity. It enables us to buy at lower prices than would otherwise be possible. If stocks were always at fair value, it would be hard to profit.
Also have pity on the big-mouth bashers. They are born losers who have been flushed into the sewers of life. These people are miserable stinking failures at everything they do, so why would you expect an intelligent opinion from any of them?
You have to thank these clowns for driving down the stock price and allowing longs to profit by buying below fair market value. Bashers are our best friends. If stocks were fully valued at all times it would be impossible to profit. We profit on the basis of other people's stupidity. And most people ARE stupid, including 100% of all Apple bashers.
I don't think Apple will go up 20 points right away, but it COULD go up that much because market cap is an illusion. To understand stocks, you need to understand WHY market cap is an illusion.
Let's say somebody purchased one share of Apple at $130 as the last trade of the day. That one increased the entire market cap by $120 billion, but it only cost somebody $130 to do it. Nobody has to spend anywhere near $120 billion to increase the market cap by that much. I would guess that about $12 billion in new money coming into Apple would be enough to do it.
This is why stocks are so volatile. A small amount of new money increases the value of ALL the shares. Likewise, a relatively small sale devalues EVERY share. It is why stocks can be manipulated up and down so easily.
Because of the complexity of actual numbers vs. expectations, I expect that this will be sorted out over a period of several weeks. Perhaps no big drop or big pop at all, but a resumption of a slow and steady uptrend. Just a guess, but it is as good as anybody elses!
---once the market thinks it can predict what is going to happen, the opposite happens.
Best post of the year! The market is going to make one decision after earnings, and one decision only --- whether the earnings reflect a permanent trend, or just a product cyclical "blip."
Longs are betting that permanence prevails, and they will likely be proven correct.
What you're suggesting --- to diversify away from the primary business --- is the crutch that companies with failed managements use to obscure their inability to successfully manage their core business. It is almost always an unmitigated disaster and would be for Apple as well.
Did you watch the Green Bay / Seattle playoff? If you did, you'll remember that Green Bay went into a "prevent defense" in the 2nd Quarter, and it cost them a touchdown, one of many mistakes that cost them the game. The core competency of any defense worth its salt is discombobulating the other team's quarterback before he has time to locate a receiver. Once you go into the "prevent defense" you're admitting that you've lost your core competency and are going to lose the game. Works that way in business too.
Here's what I expect:
1. I-phone sales of 75mm with gross margins in the low 40's.
2. I-pad sales steady.
3. I-mac sales up 20%
4. Apple Pay going gangbusters.
5. Apple watch in March.
6. Huge backlog of pent-up Iphone demand, thus guidance for March quarter 25% over estimates.
7. Accelerating pace of Apple retail store openings.
8. Stock will trade between $122 and $130, day after earnings, consolidate for a month then start creeping up above $130.
Apple is being stupid in hoarding this money in Ireland. Ireland uses the Euro, which is going to devalue 35% against the dollar anyway. Better to pay the tax on it and bring it home and distribute it, before it devalues.
Never waste time asking "why" when you're dealing with the market. It's like asking a bird why it sings. They do it because they do, and that's all.
The market, by its nature, MUST be difficult. If it wasn't, everybody would be trading it, and nobody would be doing their day jobs. You're going to be fine holding Apple through 2015, so don't worry about the day-to-day stuff.