The only question is, will the participants view it as a comedy show, after the last couple acts. Hey, don't miss this Voyticky guy, we can place bets on whether they need to issue an 8-K the next day.
I just leave the portfolio, real time page open all the time, and I do have to refresh it now and then. It seems to get tired! I notice the time part of the quote has basically disappeared.
Yahee is just not . . . good. The new format blew away the customized top page, and the embedded portfolio, so I never go there anymore, and these boards are always messing up, too many posts scrambles the order in threads. Plus by now anyone with any kind of sense would have improved these boards to provide an edit capability, text enhancement, etc etc. The corporate culture of Yahee is apparently very stale.
No thanks. I prefer naked bets on the upside. Sometime between now and 2015, I should have a spanking good profit on those $17.50 calls, barring disaster of course (which is why these bets are small).
Another is likely, but not anytime soon, and nowhere near this price. They bought time and flexibility with this offering, and the units should re-price upwards. I prefer the leverage in the calls, it's been a consistent spare change machine for me for years, I see no reason to switch up strategies.
Also also wik - closed on the June and 2015 calls at my bid. Yay pudding! I cancelled the 2016 bid, I used up the small amount I allocated to this little play.
I should also note, you could sell the $20's on that June contract for $.35 - .45, which would reduce the price to a buck, but would also cap your profit at $1.50. The question is whether you believe this will push over $20 nine months out. I do!
The after market is almost never wrong on these things, I saw it at $18.32 last night and wasn't at all surprised to see the price this morning.
I'm currently bidding on three options, all at $17.50, which seems the best point for leverage:
Jan 16 - bid/ask $1.50 - 1.75. There's zero open interest in these, doubt I'll get the ask down.
Jan 15 - $1.50 - 1.65. Better chance here, although the ask has not responded to a 5 cent lure - early, though, the guy on the other end may not be watching.
Jun 14 - $1.35 - 1.45. This looks like the value bet, that's almost 9 months after the offering dip, I like those odds. A dime won't keep me from taking these, but I'll be patient. Of course, that assumes the ask isn't reading this board, in which case I've shown my hand! In that case, dude, drop it to $1.40 and you got a deal.
Proxy materials? First they have to get the new S-4 effective, judging by the last amendment, that shouldn't take too much time. They were hoping for mid December, if the SEC doesn't dilly dally, maybe we'll get the notices before the end of November.
Yeah, but now the debt covenants are off the table, they can forget about any restrictive time line. I can't read their minds, but they might be thinking, swallow a low price for 60% of the units we need to sell, and make it back at a much higher price later in 2014. The average offering price may well end up in that over-$20 range.
Of course, they don't have to do it all at once. They could "sneak" the extra units in over the next couple offering/acquisition cycles, raise more equity than normal to ease the debt ratio down. They also have significant excess cash flow over coverage to use for growth capex, an acquisition warchest or to pay down principal. They sold themselves cheaply, yes, but what they got as a premium was flexibility. They were in a kind of box, now, poof, it's gone. Business managers are always impatient, I recall VNR's merger with the minority part of ENP, I thought they would wait a year to digest the new acquisition, line things up, but they did it in months. Execs like to get structural problems over and done with, to move on.
Well, as I say, opinions, not prophecy, I'm not the pope (that is, infallible). I'm rather surprised by the low offering, but I can understand their motives. I'm sure the $18's were not the target they had in mind! I was thinking $19.50 might be the trigger point, some hoped for a higher number. Perhaps the muted reaction to the Q3 numbers was a motivating factor, if the unit price didn't gain a buck from that, then what? Maybe they figured the offering thing was acting as a cap on the market.
This will look bad in our accounts for a little while, but it's really positive, it removes nearly all the offering overhang, even though it's a partial measure. The market as a whole may not understand that they have work left to do, this may clear that cloud. Lots of positives on the horizon in the upstreams, good metrics here, LINE soon gets their drama over with once and for all. it's an opportunity to look for bargains. I bought some QRE calls, absurd pricing there, and I'll be hunting calls here tomorrow. As to the value of my units, well, who cares about temporary red arrows? I'll hold them as long as they cover.
They're only doing about 60% of what they needed to get down to a 3X debt ratio. I'm guessing they were spooked by the fickle upstream market and wanted to get some of it over with now, to make the debt covenants a non-issue and buy a lot more time to fill it out.
Personally, I'm glad, though it will depress the unit price for awhile. This should remove the overhang and allow the units to re-price to the resulting metrics, which given their guidance, should be in the 1.2 to 1.3 range for the next quarter or two. I hold some March calls that should benefit at some point from the lid being taken off, I hope. It's also worth thinking about looking at some Jan 15 $17.50 calls after the offering dip.
After they shed those operations, eliminated all the infrastructure, this little peashooter would mark its return into exploration and production? Does that sound reasonable to you? Dude!
I don't know if anything about this is typical, before all this nonsense LINE traded in the $30's. And I don't think this has anything to do with the monthly distribution. The whole upstream space is the dumps, QRE is in the mid $16's, what in F is it doing down there again? VNR in the mid $27's, this below $29, for some reason people aren't buying. It happens periodically, I think LINE getting the deal down and reducing uncertainty down to the background level will help everyone.
I don't, this is temporary. They were all moving similarly until LINE fell out of bed the past few days. And why? No reason I can think of.
Exactly, there's zero reason for LNCO to trade higher than LINE. It's purely emotion, LINE just isn't very popular at the moment. It will all fade away, it doesn't matter where LINE trades right now, and LNCO and BRY are locked in a dance. The deal will go through, that's obvious. When it does, and when Q4 metrics come out, and when LINE gives 2014 guidance, and when the distribution is increased, LINE will respond. It's not really a matter of if.
Don't worry about it, just malaise with this symbol. It will pass soon enough, there's nothing but green lights ahead.
Could be, the damage appears to have been stopped for the moment. I don't see another rush upwards without some events though. Still, better than the fives.