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Universal Display Corp. Message Board

rul4king 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 5, 2014 4:16 PM Member since: Jul 4, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Anticipation is building..........

    by panelized Aug 5, 2014 11:58 AM
    rul4king rul4king Aug 5, 2014 4:16 PM Flag

    A couple of typo errors 2013 not 3013 $40 million not $49 million.

    In 2013 managements forecast of $110 - $125 million (avg. $117.5) in revenue was conservative by a wide margin from the actual revenue of $146.6 million they were off by 25%. When you factor out the guaranteed $40 million in SDC licensing fees they were off by 37.5%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anticipation is building..........

    by panelized Aug 5, 2014 11:58 AM
    rul4king rul4king Aug 5, 2014 3:56 PM Flag

    When analysts’ estimate UDC’s revenues they base their calculations upon the forecasts that UDC’s management gives vs. doing their own due diligence.

    In 3013 managements forecast of $110 - $125 million (avg. $117.5) in revenue was conservative by a wide margin from the actual revenue of $146.6 million they were off by 25%. When you factor out the guaranteed $49 million in SDC licensing fees they were off by 37.5%.

    As a result during the last 4 qtrs., 2nd qtr 2013 thru 1st qtr 2014 analysts’ eps was substantially low in 3 of those 4 qtrs. The only qtr were actual was close to the estimates was the 4th qtr where management revised their forecast from $117.5 million to $143 million.

    Taking out the 4th qtr from the equation the 3 qtrs. estimates were $.24 vs. an actual of $.54 or a beat by 125%.

    In 2014 UDC has forecasted revenue of $190 - $205 million, and has since stated that the revenue will be on the high end of the range. Analysts using that range and the fact that management stated that revenue is back half loaded they have calculated 2nd qtr 2014 to be $61.6 million.

    Therefore after taking out the SDC licensing fee of $25 million 2nd qtr revenue will come in at approx. $1.2 million less than 1st qtr.

    Historically 2nd qtr revenue has been higher than the 1st qtr. In 2013 it was $14.4 million higher and in the 2012 it was $2.4 million higher.

    Why should 2nd qtr 2014 be less?

    My estimate for 2nd qtr 2014 is for $70 - $72 million in revenue resulting in eps of $.48 - $.52.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rul4king rul4king Jul 31, 2014 4:06 PM Flag

    The engineer who answered the question explained that when they mask its like spray painting a car. A considerable amount is wasted on the mask and throughout the enclosure so when you spray the sub-pixels more is left on the mask than goes onto the display. The RG in the RBG requires 2 spraying and thus wastes more.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • At the ASM in late June I went determined to find answers to the following questions:

    UDC’s TV Engineering
    Which Tv method, Samsung’s RGB or LG’s white backlight with color filters uses more of UDC’s materials in grams? Samsung’s red and green emitters vs. LG’s yellow / green emitters. In the masking process Samsung’s process wastes more grams since both colors are coated on the masks vs. LG only having wastes from one color.

    Steve Abramson
    I questioned why, in 2013, it took until November for UDC to revise revenue forecasts from $110 -125 million to the $142 – 144 million. Steve said that management wasn’t sure on the green host usage until the 3rd qtr. He assured me that revisions, this year, will be made on a more timely basis.
    LG’s contract calls for material prices that incorporate royalties and are marked up accordinglyat the time of shipment.

    Sid Rosenblatt
    I calculated accounts recievable to be approx. 50 days. Sid said terms of payment varies between customers but average 50 – 60 days. Note: a 50 day A/R would indicate that the last 50 days of Q1 with A/R of $25 million would calculate shipment of approx $500,000 per day or $45 million per qtr. Should this rate carry forward into Q2 we would have revenues of $70 million ($45 + $25). This would beat analyst’s estimates of $61 million by approx. $9 million.
    I also questioned Sid on the 2013 release of $59.4 million of NOL’s followed by the 41.1% 2014 tax rate.He said that IRS rules require release upon 3 straight profitable years. 2013 was the 3rd year of profits. He added , as the Irish patents begin producing revenue the tax rate will decline as Irish taxes are at 12.5%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    REPORT FROM THE ANNUAL SHAREHOLDER'S MEETING

    by dca1125 Jun 19, 2014 9:09 PM
    rul4king rul4king Jun 20, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    Doug,
    Great seeing you at the ASM I had a chance to speak with Steve, Sid, Sherwin, Thompson and one of engineers, by the LG TV. All were very upbeat regarding the future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Case for an Analyst Day

    by zikzak2 Jun 19, 2014 4:29 AM
    rul4king rul4king Jun 19, 2014 12:29 PM Flag

    Zikzak,

    Can't agree with you more.

    I e-mailed management stating that Communication was issue 1, 2, & 3.

    As for you're statement, "Translate that into dollars. If a partially (?) utilized 8k substrate/month pilot line can generate $9.5M in sales, what will 26k more substrates/month mean once it is at full capacity? " as per my calculation, "partially (?) ? = approx. 30%

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Anyone going to the ASM ...

    by mabelairasesq Jun 16, 2014 7:32 PM
    rul4king rul4king Jun 17, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    I am planning on going and asking questions.

    Following Steve's presentation it is open to a few questions with the whole audience. Then the sessions are open to one on one discussions with engineers through Steve.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    iWatch

    by armynutcase Jun 16, 2014 9:26 AM
    rul4king rul4king Jun 16, 2014 4:38 PM Flag

    I agree that the amount of material in an iwatch is very small $.05-.10 per screen for Samsung under their contract however LG hasn't signed a Samsung like contract. I believe and will attempt to verify at the ASM, that in lieu of licensing the royalties call for a percentage of screen ASP which could force LG to pay as much #$%$30 per watch or else sign a Samsung type licensing agreement.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    OLED lighting BIG pricing Decrease (60%)

    by qtmmnutcase May 28, 2014 9:10 AM
    rul4king rul4king May 28, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    The difference in area between a 5" and 55" screen is 11 squared (11 x 11) or approx. 121 times larger.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Lawrence Lacerte, a member of UDC’s Board of Directors, last week sold 23% of his stock in UDC last week. It is a concern to shareholders, as to his confidence in UDCs future.

    Why did he sell that many shares?

    A possible explanation can be found in the 2013 Proxy Materials, page 41. I reads as follows:
    “650,000 shares of common stock held by Mr. Lacerte are pledged as security for a margin loan”.

    YTD, thru May 16th the value of UDC’s shares went down by $8.85 / share, causing Mr. Lacerte’s 650,000 shares in UDC to decline by $5,752,500. As anyone, with a margin loan, knows that should the underlying securities decline one may be forced to liquidate securities when a margin is called.

    While we do not the extent of his loan, Federal laws permit up to a 75% loan to value ratio. Should he have been at a loan to value rate at 65.3% he may have been forced to sell those shares.

    Rather than showing his lack of confidence, in UDC, by leveraging his portfolio to that extent he would have been extremely confident in UDC’s future. How many board members take risks in backing up their decisions?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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