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Universal Display Corp. Message Board

rul4king 32 posts  |  Last Activity: 6 hours ago Member since: Jul 4, 2010
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  • Pimps,

    For your information on Feb 18th, over a week ago I predicted, on this board, Revenue of $54.9 million, $1.3 million less than the actual of $56.2 million. This was better than the analyst revenue forecasts. I also predicted $.40/share earnings vs. the actual $.28. This would have been in line provided management didn't take the $3.9 million write-down and $4.5 million increase in R & D expense.

    BY THE WAY I DIDN'T SEE WHERE YOU PUBLISHED YOUR BRILLIANT PREDICTION

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Carne8ielaker,

    Good point as long as LG comes through and makes the 600k TV's and 20+ million Apple Watches.

    Somehow OLED is questioning LG's ability to come close to LG's estimates of TV's and wearables. Apple will make it happen through advertisements hopefully the Chinese will come through on the TV's viability.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    2015 Revenue

    by radar_charlie 7 hours ago

    Given the $190 - $230 range the average should have been $210. Compare this with the analyst $211 and your right about the analyst numbers. Since OLED is usually lower it's not as bad of a number.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • rul4king rul4king 22 hours ago Flag

    I thought that Duksan was going to be their host producer.

  • Reply to

    Zikzak

    by slacker7_11 Feb 26, 2015 11:08 AM
    rul4king rul4king Feb 26, 2015 3:52 PM Flag

    Agreed again,

    The sales of green host was not included in 4th qtr. estimates. The drop in materials revenue of approx. $9 million was mainly the $7 million in host. I estimate the green host was approx. $3.4 million therefore revenues of approx. $54 million.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Zikzak

    by slacker7_11 Feb 26, 2015 11:08 AM
    rul4king rul4king Feb 26, 2015 3:45 PM Flag

    ZiKzak,

    I agreed with you especially on the M2 line. The original line was capable of producing 8k substrates per month, each capable of producing 6 screens. That's 48k per month. I doubt they produced 48k screens all year. They wouldn't have expanded the plant unless they planned to produce at a higher rate. As the expansion ramps up to 14k they have the capacity to produce 84k per month or 1,008k per year. As stated they plan on producing 600k. Therefore they will have to ramp up quickly.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    T Minus 49 and counting.........

    by panelized Feb 24, 2015 3:54 PM
    rul4king rul4king Feb 24, 2015 4:15 PM Flag

    I'll accept those numbers. Especially the guidance.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Guidance?

    by serfbum1 Feb 20, 2015 7:56 PM
    rul4king rul4king Feb 23, 2015 3:44 PM Flag

    I'm all in and hoping for a major pop.

    LG's contract should boost revenue over $250 million however management will estimate revenue's conservative and not estimate any host material sales. In 2014 that was approx. $37 million. They'll probably come in at $225 - $240 million and then beat at the end of the year.

    Their thoughts are if a sale isn't 95% guaranteed they wont include it in estimates even though some will make it into sales.

  • Reply to

    Guidance?

    by serfbum1 Feb 20, 2015 7:56 PM
    rul4king rul4king Feb 23, 2015 1:06 PM Flag

    I favor a licensing fee inline with Samsung's paid bi-annually 1st and 3rd qtrs. thus eliminating the lumpiness and a 1% royalty. Therefore this year they would get $60 million in licensing and $15 million in royalty.

  • Reply to

    Guidance?

    by serfbum1 Feb 20, 2015 7:56 PM
    rul4king rul4king Feb 23, 2015 12:42 PM Flag

    Doing a little math.

    Besides paying for materials Samsung has been paying and escalating licensing fee of $40 million in 2013 and $50 million in 2014. I expect this trend to continue therefore the fees will be $60 million this year followed by $70 million next and $80 million in 2017 the last year of their current contract. In 2011 Samsung took a chance on relatively new technology that had numerous patent challenges.

    LG on the other hand is paying part in license fees and part in royalties on proven technology therefore the royalty portion is not guaranteed.

    To compare LG's payment's with Samsung's I will compare both companies fees over the next three years. Samsung's next year's fees average $70 million. I believe that the revenue, from LG next year should be $100 million but I will use the Samsung number of $70 million.

    Royalty
    TV's 2% of $1,000/screen = $20 X 1.5 million screens = $30 million
    Apple Watch 2% of $20/screen = $.40 X 30 million = $12 million
    Other small screens = $18 million

    Total unguaranteed royalties = $60 million

    Licensing $10 million at minimum but would expect $40+ million.

  • Reply to

    Guidance?

    by serfbum1 Feb 20, 2015 7:56 PM
    rul4king rul4king Feb 23, 2015 9:59 AM Flag

    I agree with most of what you say however you missed one big plus.

    Add in as a big plus Licensing fees.

    In order to get the reduced material prices including royalties they are paying a licensing fee.

    While the exact amount has not been disclosed it may well be substantial. Unless the royalties are substantial LG would be paying less than Samsung. Considering Samsung was first to market, there are presently over double the patents and the patents have been validated Samsung should be paying less. Otherwise Samsung would have major problems with UDC.

  • Reply to

    4th qtr 2014 revenue and earnings forecast

    by rul4king Feb 18, 2015 4:22 PM
    rul4king rul4king Feb 19, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    LG is a key as their gen 8 plant ramps-up

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    4th qtr 2014 revenue and earnings forecast

    by rul4king Feb 18, 2015 4:22 PM
    rul4king rul4king Feb 19, 2015 9:20 AM Flag

    Hopefully my estimates will prove conservative and we will see your estimates. A lot of the pps will depend on how aggressive is management’s forecast. Analysts’ have estimated 2015 increase to be only $30 million. That does not include any of 2014’s host sales of $30 million. It does not include LG licensing fees.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • As we are a week ahead of earnings I took a look at revenues of 3rd qtr. Actual vs. Analyst’s 4th qtr estimates.

    4th qtr. results include a $25 million licensing fee so I dropped that from the $48.9 million 4th qtr. Estimates giving me 4th qtr $23.9 million in revenue vs. $32.892 million 3rd qtr. This drop is a significant drop of 28.3%.

    Looking at the major players; SDC, LG, NSSC and others I tried to figure where the drop in revenues occurred in the analysts’ estimates. Using the 3rd qtr report and 10Q following are my results.

    Samsung sales 3rd qtr $12.17 million vs. 4th qtr $10.9 million a drop of 10.4%. This is quite possible since 4th qtr is usually slightly slower.

    LG sales $10.2 million vs. $9 million a drop of 11.8%. While possible with the TV ramp-up it may well be higher. (This number should be higher by at least $2 million)

    NSSC host sales $5.921 million vs. $0. While 3rd qtr dropped from the 2nd qtr. Of $10.26 million to the 3rd qtr of $5.921 million or 42.3% I would expect a similar 42.3% drop to $3.4 million. (add an additional $3.4 million to the analyst revenue)

    All other customer’s sales from $4.6 million to $4.0 million a drop of 13%. While this is possible a lot depends on new customer ramp-ups such as Konica Minolta’s lighting. ( I would lean towards keeping these sales at $4.6 million therefore add $.6 million to the estimates)

    Therefore I would add an additional $6 million to the analysts’ $48.9 million for a revenue of $54.9 million. Since this mix has a higher mark-up I would be looking for an $.08/share increase over their $.32 for a total of $.40/share and $1.02/ share for the year.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • rul4king rul4king Feb 17, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    Doug,

    I agree that the royalty s/b in the 1-2% range. I disagree with the use of red only. Green provides a 20 - 25% increase in efficiency and with the battery life crucial. Green emitter under the contract would cost about $.05/screen. You compare that with the royalty of $.45 plus its minor for a top of the line product.

  • rul4king rul4king Feb 17, 2015 11:43 AM Flag

    Taking a look at the 3rd qtr income statement there was $5.4 million in royalty revenue. Since Samsung doesn't pay any licensing fees in the 3rd qtr none was from Samsung. My guess that the vast majority was from LG and I will use $5.1 million.

    Looking at the 10Q revenue from LG was approx. $10.2 million. Therefore materials and royalties were approx. 50/50.

    Using your scenario of $100/gram would give a $50/gram for both materials and $50/gram for royalties. Under Samsung's contract Samsung earns volume discounts, on materials of perhaps $10/gram bringing their material costs down to $40/gram.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Best Buy

    by mekopelet1 Feb 10, 2015 9:11 AM
    rul4king rul4king Feb 10, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    I visited BB in PA the other day and walked around the store looking to spot LG's TV and couldn't find it so I was able to find a salesman. He didn't know where it was as he didn't work in the TV department. He located a TV salesman who showed it to me. While it was on an end cap it was in back of a sales counter and wasn't readily visible to the isle. I asked how the sales were progressing. He said that he personally had not sold one the store had sold several sets.

    It seams that LG could improve its in store marketing.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Earning on Thursday Feb 26th(officially), AH

    by cooters_2001 Feb 5, 2015 4:15 PM
    rul4king rul4king Feb 6, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    I believe the main reason for delaying reporting every quarter has to do with disclosure requirements.

    Since their materials are purchased well in advance of device release dates their customers don't want material sales out prior to release of devices.

    When Samsung was the only customer one product could easily be revealed. As LG and other companies dilute the effect of any one product they may report earlier in the future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    LG's new contract with UDC

    by rul4king Feb 2, 2015 4:16 PM
    rul4king rul4king Feb 4, 2015 12:48 PM Flag

    Small screen production may vary as a lot depends on Apple's sales.

    I googled Samsung's revenues from display search and found the following article Headlines;
    2013 AMOLED Revenues to Pass $10B

    When you scroll down in the article you find:
    AMOLED smart phone panels will be shipped in 2013, accounting for over $3.2B in revenues.

    While shipments may have increased in 2014 prices may have dropped from the $65 screen:
    Samsung Galaxy S 4, which uses a 5” 1920×1080 (440 ppi) AMOLED panel, with an average selling price of over $65, including integrated (on-cell) touch.

    Bottom line while Samsung material usage will be slightly higher than LG's the usage, in 2015 but won't be 10+ times higher. A 55" TV has 121 times the area of a 5" screen. Production of 600,000 TV's equates to 72.6 million 5" screens.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    LG's new contract with UDC

    by rul4king Feb 2, 2015 4:16 PM
    rul4king rul4king Feb 4, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    Slacker,
    I agree with you on the television panels. However when comparing apples with apples.

    You have not included small screens including Apple Watch in LG figures and where do you get Samsung's Display $10-15 Billion? Does that figure include LCD's?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

OLED
34.39-2.37(-6.45%)Feb 27 4:00 PMEST

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