One other important note here. The wild card in trying to decide when to get into this stock (for me) is just these ongoing trials we're talking about in this thread. I don't have much confidence in the original approach here--that is shutting down HSP90. So I wouldn't be at all surprised to see more unsuccessful results there.
I'm in for STA-12-8666, not the earlier science. I think that drug conjugate will work and work very well, based on the preclinical data. But this stock could take a beating on any poor results from the lead drug (Ganetespib).
Shutting down HSP90 hasn't been very effective in the models studied. That's why this company's stock is in the toilet. And here is why that might be a great opportunity.
What the average investor doesn't know is what's very different in this company's pipeline from what has been tested, and why HSP90 is a fairly unique target for a drug conjugate.
Drug conjugates use a targeting moiety to deliver the payload that attacks the cancer. Most of them use antibodies for targeting. Those are expensive and difficult to manufacture. STA-12-8666 is a fusion protein/drug conjugate. There will be a lot more profit in it, if it works out.
The early work with this compound has gone particularly well. Scientists tend to shy away from words like "extraordinary" or "remarkable" or "startling," but you will find these terms sprinkled throughout the preclinical conclusions on STA-12-8666
The key will be the linker, which binds the payload to the targeting moiety. That is designed to detach when the compound reaches the cancer. Too loose, and it comes off early and the drug doesn't get there. Too tight and it never comes off and the drug won't be activated. I'm going to focus my research there now. But if the preclinical work is any indication (and it may be) they would appear to be on very solid ground in this department.
Fair disclosure, I own this stock and I'm long. Also, I've been very wrong before about the science of some biotech company or other. For example, I thought Zalicus had a real shot with their calcium channel blocker pain drug and I was 180 degrees off there. So consider this post and whatever I might post to follow with all that in mind.
Good luck to all investors in the success of this company. It's could be a nice opportunity to make some money while someone does something very important in cancer drug development.