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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

rumors_twilight 81 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 15, 2015 7:36 AM Member since: Sep 5, 2012
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  • rumors_twilight by rumors_twilight Apr 15, 2015 7:36 AM Flag

    Just be thankful that Michel took over....because had the previous management team remained in place we would have gotten almost nothing.....or maybe nothing.

    Not sure it is worth holding and accepting the new NOK shares. They will be undertaking a LOT of restructuring, which will probably take 18 months, at least. And in the meanwhile, both Huawei and ERIC will be doubling their effort to take market share during the inevitable confusion of merging the two companies.

    But if you decide to hold, at least you will get 2.1% dividend.

    Thus ends the ALU Saga.

  • rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 15, 2015 7:23 AM Flag

    EVERYTHING THAT IS CURRENTLY OWNED BY ALU WILL BE OWNED BY NOK. And it is very unlikely that there will be a competing bid. (By the way, an article yesterday said that the IPO of Submarine Cable had been canceled....or at least postponed.....not that it would matter since shareholders would not have benefitted directly anyway)

  • Reply to

    Barrons states the offer is

    by acatt14u Apr 15, 2015 6:35 AM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 15, 2015 7:12 AM Flag

    2.78B shares is NOT FULLY diluted.....the number is much higher when fully diluted. And it is based upon .55 shares of NOK, with NOK at a fixed Euro 7.77.

  • Reply to

    i want my submarine shares

    by frankenstocken Apr 14, 2015 8:09 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 15, 2015 1:16 AM Flag

    I saw that in an article just a couple of minutes ago. So if the merger does happen, which seems very likely at this point, it seems that the Submarine Cable unit will NOT be spunoff. I guess it makes sense, since the goal of spinning it off was to raise enough cash to fund new business opportunities. NOKs cash hoard, plus ALU's cash, is probably more than enough for the task at hand.

  • Reply to

    i want my submarine shares

    by frankenstocken Apr 14, 2015 8:09 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 15, 2015 12:20 AM Flag

    You may want it, but you are NOT going to get it. The board, which shareholders elect, and the CEO, which the board hires, makes all decisions concerning IPO's and what to do with retained shares. As ALU is not cash rich, you are almost certainly not going to get money or stock out of the Submarine Cable IPO.

  • Reply to

    ALU will continue to rise

    by bobalan5 Apr 14, 2015 11:24 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 15, 2015 12:17 AM Flag

    Hope you are right about 8 dollars a share, but that seems farfetched. Don't forget that the current run started at about $3.85......getting even $6 a share is a massive premium over where the stock was just 4 days ago.

  • rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 15, 2015 12:14 AM Flag

    I think the issue is moot.....someone posted a few hours ago that Le Echos reported that the offer will be euro 15B, which is about $16B. With 2.824 billion shares outstanding, it means that each share of ALU will be worth about $5.66. Hopefully ALU management can squeeze a little more out of NOK. So my guess is the obvious $5.66 a share on the low end, and $6 a share on the high end

  • Reply to

    i want my submarine shares

    by frankenstocken Apr 14, 2015 8:09 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 14, 2015 11:08 PM Flag

    ALU is currently the owner of Submarine Cable.....a certain amount of the underlying new shares created in the new company will be sold at the IPO....with the proceeds given to the new company.

    In a nutshell, that is essentially what happens when a company elects to spinoff a subsidiary or division into a separate company. It is how the new company is funded.

    Then, according to comments by ALU management several months ago, some of the remaining shares, all of which are owned by ALU, will be sold off with the proceeds being applied to the Shift Plan goal of raising Euro 1B in asset sales by the end of 2015. The company will retain the rest of the shares as an investment in the new company.

    YOU AS AN ALU SHAREHOLDER ARE ENTITLED TO ZERO SHARES IN THE NEW COMPANY. ALU could give shareholders a cut....but ALU is hardly swimming in cash. So keeping the cash, or the shares that can be sold at a later date for cash, to fund future R&D and operations, etc., is a whole lot more important than giving shares, which is essentially cash, away.

    In short, ALU shareholders are ENTITLED TO NOTHING when it comes to getting free shares in the new Submarine Cable company. Like everyone else, if you want Submarine Cable company shares, buy them in the open market.

  • Reply to

    i want my submarine shares

    by frankenstocken Apr 14, 2015 8:09 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 14, 2015 10:42 PM Flag

    frank.....Since ALU owns Submarine Cable, that means they own the underlying shares of the new company. As part of the IPO, they will offer a certain percentage of the total shares, which will also be priced accordingly. I don't know what percentage that might be. It depends on the IPO price and how much ALU want to raise for the new company.

    Since not all Submarine Cable shares will be made part of the IPO, there will be residual shares not placed. These will be retained by ALU. As I understand past comments by ALU management, they will sell in the open market some of the retained Submarine Cable shares, and apply the proceeds to the Shift Plan goal of raising Euro 1B from asset sales by the end of 2015. The remainder of the Submarine Cable shares that ALU owns will be kept as an investment in the new Submarine Cable company.

    HOWEVER, the above was the plan of action PRIOR to the apparent merger of NOK and ALU. So now, if the NOK/ALU merger does happen, it is entirely possible that NOK might elect to NOT IPO Submarine Cable at all.....and just retain it as a core business. Looking back, the delay in executing the IPO of Submarine Cable, which was originally planned for 1H2015, was probably due to ongoing merger talks between NOK and ALU. So maybe NOK made it known early on that they would like to retain Submarine Cable.

    If the NOK/ALU merger happens, I am sure that the status of the Submarine Cable IPO will be an early topic of discussion.

  • Reply to

    i want my submarine shares

    by frankenstocken Apr 14, 2015 8:09 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 14, 2015 10:14 PM Flag

    Assuming that the merger happens, and the Submarine Cable IPO is not cancelled by NOK, then of course, NOK will take ownership of the new Submarine shares that are in excess to the ones sold to fund the new company. No surprise there, after all, they would own ALU lock, stock and barrel....including the shares they choose to retain as an investment in the new submarine cable company.

  • rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 14, 2015 8:27 PM Flag

    Who exactly is going to bid.....ERIC?...who instantaneously would run afoul of anti-trust concerns.....OR.....Huawei?....a Chinese company, not a friend of France, who would acquire all that technology? Forget it on both accounts.

    And do you think that CSCO is interested? The same CSCO that has been spending the last couple of years trying to simplify its structure...which is the opposite of what would happen if they were to buy ALU.

    So no, there really isn't any other realistic, potential suitor.

    Moreover, NOK is the perfect suitor. ALU is the #3 vendor in the world, and NOK is #4. Both companies have about 8.5% of global market share in the telecom vendor category. Combining the companies creates a strong #2 vendor. One with a really immense patent portfolio. For a suitor, it doesn't get any better than NOK....WHO NEEDS ALU TO PROSPER.

  • Reply to

    i want my submarine shares

    by frankenstocken Apr 14, 2015 8:09 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 14, 2015 8:12 PM Flag

    they are not giving shares in submarine......ALU is retaining all shares, except the shares it sells to fund the new company

  • Reply to

    close today at 5.10++?

    by rdgosc Apr 14, 2015 2:49 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 14, 2015 8:10 PM Flag

    Oh...."you is" you say......hmmm.....I seem to recall that "you are" is proper grammar. By the way, I am supposed to be offended by being called a "re tar did mo nk ey", when that is a taunt that NOT even a 5 year old would use......since the recipient, no matter the age, would just laugh. I mean, you have got to be kidding.

  • Reply to

    Pigs get slaughterd

    by fr3cnhmodel Apr 14, 2015 4:18 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 14, 2015 7:39 PM Flag

    I seriously doubt if ALU and NOK met with the Government today (as was reported) without a framework deal in hand....enough of one, anyway, so that they could be confident that they could give the government the broad details required for approval. Nokia "fans" do not have a vote in the matter.

  • rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 14, 2015 7:31 PM Flag

    And we owe it all to Michel, Raby, and Basil. While many, many contributed to the successful turnaround, those 3 are the architects. You can well imagine how things would have turned out if Ben had stayed on. Talk about a much, much different outcome!

  • Reply to

    close today at 5.10++?

    by rdgosc Apr 14, 2015 2:49 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 14, 2015 7:20 PM Flag

    imagine that.....okay....By the way, monkey, is using "re tar did mon key" instead of words an attempt to be "cool", or "clever"....or just more evidence that you are an imbecile. Even a monkey would know enough to use real words. Or do you even know how to spell. Dope.

  • Reply to

    SHORTS ARE SLAUGHTERED!!! JUST CONFIRMED!!!

    by thebigdonutt Apr 14, 2015 7:10 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 14, 2015 7:13 PM Flag

    And I would guess that the current short position, after the last 2 days of trading, is essentially zero.....so a short squeeze is very unlikely at this point

  • Reply to

    Les Echos Has Just Stated

    by geegaboo Apr 14, 2015 7:04 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 14, 2015 7:11 PM Flag

    Thanks...geegaboo....seems like a fair offer to me....though I would like to see management get the offer raised to $6. No matter, $5.67 represents a very nice premium from where this all started....around $3.85.

  • Reply to

    close today at 5.10++?

    by rdgosc Apr 14, 2015 2:49 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 14, 2015 7:05 PM Flag

    hahahahah....yes it will.....I seem to have had no problem doing it.....and gee....did yahoo FORCE you to post 2 words #$%$ independent syllables....hahahhahaha. By the way, #$%$ money, is #$%$ mon key" you attempt to be "cool", or "clever"....or just more evidence that you are an imbecile.

  • rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Apr 14, 2015 7:01 PM Flag

    Despite the low stock price last October, ALU management was still very upbeat going forward. So you are probably right...ALU probably rebuffed NOK back then. Or perhaps NOK still had not made the final decision until much later..

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