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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

rumors_twilight 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 27, 2014 1:01 PM Member since: Sep 5, 2012
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  • Reply to fact 3 zeros with a...

    by springer97me Nov 26, 2014 8:39 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Nov 27, 2014 1:01 PM Flag

    Really? $10 dollar a share at the end of 2015? I'd love to hear your reasoning, since ERIC, a major competitor, with competing products across the board, is expected to earn about 87 cents a share that year, which is 300% MORE THAN ALU is expected to make....YET ERIC TRADES AT ONLY ABOUT $12.50 A SHARE. There seems to be a disconnect in your logic, unless you are presuming some major, game changing event. Otherwise, a 21 cent a share profit for ALU in 2015 does not seem like enough to get the stock any where near $10 a share......$5 or $6, maybe....but $10 is not going to happen without some bolt out of the blue, unforeseen event.

    At ALU much of the heavy lifting is over when it comes to restructuring. Now it remains for ALU to ramp up innovation and the introduction of new products to make a solid impact on the top and bottom line. Almost certainly, without surprise announcements, 1 year in not enough.

    Still, IP and Nuage networks represent serious unknown potential in terms of innovation, and upside surprises in revenue and profitability.

    Things are much better at ALU than they have ever been.....but no where near $10 a share good.

  • rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Nov 26, 2014 11:29 PM Flag

    The notion that ALU can be bought out for 15-20 dollars a share is preposterous. A good premium is typically around 40%, which would imply a price of around $5 dollars a share.

    And why exactly would ALU qualify for such a premium right now? While very impressive progress toward predictable profitability has been made, ALU have yet to rack up top and bottom-line numbers that are worthy of a 40% premium. Anyone with any common sense would know that.

    Also, why would ALU even entertain a buyout offer? Do you think management went through the very, make that EXTREMELY difficult...... restructuring grind to sell the company for a pittance? The answer is obviously no.

    False enthusiasm is pointless.

  • rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Nov 25, 2014 5:43 PM Flag

    You are conflating killing someone with something that is necessarily always wrong and unacceptable. By doing this, you are ignoring the facts of the situation:

    Brown robbed a convenience store, WHEN HE DID NOT HAVE TO.

    Brown initially refused to get out of the middle of the road, WHEN HE DID NOT HAVE TO.

    BROWN COULD HAVE RUN AWAY, but did not, when Wilson backed up his patrol car as he realized that Brown was a suspect in the robbery of the convenience store.

    Brown assaulted Wilson, trying to take his weapon, as the latter sat in his patrol car...WHEN HE DID NOT HAVE TO.

    Brown could have kept on running after he was shot in the hand, instead of turning and charging Wilson....WHEN HE DID NOT HAVE TO.....or

    Brown could have fallen to his knees put his hands up and been arrested instead of charging Wilson....WHICH HE DID NOT DO.

    In short, Brown had at least 6 chances to save his life, but failed to do so. ACCORDINGLY, THE LIKELIHOOD OF A GOOD OUTCOME FOR BROWN WAS ZERO. After robbing a convenience store, then assaulting a police officer, while also attempting to take his weapon, the outcome was predictable.

    In the end, there is NO WAY a police officer is going to sit in his car and call for backup after being assaulted.

    And once out of the car, there is no way he is going to try to wrestle with someone who weights 70 pounds more than he does, who just assaulted him, and attempted to take his weapon.

    If you want to complain about the treatment of, and opportunities for, black americans, then you should choose a much better poster boy than Brown....who made at least 6 TERRIBLE decisions that resulted in his death.

    Finally, Brown is responsible for all the circumstances that led to his death.

  • rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Nov 20, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    wb....actually, a rising business tide often does raise all corporate boats....PROVIDED....the boat in question (ALU) does not have a massive business plan, or massive cost structure, hole in it. Unfortunately, those were ALU's problems under Ben. So the company very nearly went under. What a world of difference two years can make, when under Michel's disciplined, focused leadership.

  • rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Nov 20, 2014 6:04 PM Flag

    wb...I believe this sums it up nicely....

    Then (under Ben), the company persisted in its belief that it could be and sell all things telecom, and actually make money. This, even as that business plan required R&D dollars to be spread out over non-core businesses and legacy products (with one foot in the grave), thus chocking off R&D dollars for next generation technologies. Meanwhile, to support the bankrupt philosophy of trying to be and sell all things telecom, the company was unable to restructure effectively, which is why Ben's restructuring efforts....all 4 or them....failed. Accordingly, the company burned up billions in cash, had dreadful gross and operating margins, laughable negative free cash flow, and recorded chronic, deep losses for 5 years, with the exception of 4Qs that benefited from EOY CAPEX dump.

    Now (under Michel), the company has a workable plan which finds them tightly focused on certain core technologies, with R&D spending increasingly focused on those areas, even as they EFFECTIVELY cut the RIGHT employees to reflect the new corporate focus. Michel also did not hesitate to sell off non-core assets, or spin them off (good riddance 2,700 EXTREMELY high paid French Sub employees). He has done what he said he would do, which is no small feat given the fact that he took over a company on life-support. He has done so well in fact that he was able to unwind the disgraceful (even if highly necessary) hocking of ALU's patent portfolio.

    After 5 years of service, the fact that Ben was FORCED to hock his company's multi-billion dollar patent portfolio to stay in business is failure in my book, and miserably so. This, even if that one act (hock the patents) was NECESSARY and CRUCIAL, and subsequently gave Michel a single, slim chance to save the company.

    Undeniably, Ben oversaw an unbelievable decline in ALU corporate treasure, and even WORSE, lost opportunity, which very nearly resulted in bankruptcy.

  • Reply to

    Alcatel-Lucent reports Q3 2014 results

    by romangerasch Oct 30, 2014 2:52 AM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Oct 30, 2014 3:29 AM Flag

    4 Traders now shows ALU up 5.43% at 2.155 Euros....or $2.71.....will be interesting to see if it holds up....

  • Reply to

    Alcatel-Lucent reports Q3 2014 results

    by romangerasch Oct 30, 2014 2:52 AM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Oct 30, 2014 3:25 AM Flag

    wb....good to see you are still around.....3Q looked pretty decent, except it was lite on the top line, at least as far as the estimate found at yahoo is concerned....still, there was continued improvement across the board, and the company seems like it is on track when it comes to cost cutting.....SG&A is coming down nicely, and it is obviously making a difference....I seem to recall that competitors are around 7% or so when it comes to SG& ALU still has a ways to go......All in all, not a bad Q at all....especially achieving the consensus bottom-line on a top-line miss.

  • Reply to

    Predictions for the upcoming week?

    by joeybabe1 Sep 6, 2014 1:45 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Sep 7, 2014 8:03 PM Flag

    wb~ You are right. It is one thing to run a company that is structurally sound, and quite another to run one that is on life support. And the challenge was compounded by the fact that Ben also badly misjudged the telecom market.

    I recall reading an analyst opinion about ALU's desire to be all things telecom...and that they were doomed to fail. The core argument was that in critical businesses, like optical, enterprise, and routers, ALU was often competing against specialists firms who devoted all or nearly all of their R&D dollars to a single discipline...for example, Ciena and optical, or CSCO and Juniper and routers. The power of concentrated R&D dollars (and lots of them) from focused competitors, made it nearly impossible for ALU to effectively compete over the long term against ALU was forced to spread out its R&D dollars across many disciplines.

    But under Ben, ALU's problems ran much deeper...far too many products, no corporate focus (now ALU is focused on the cloud, ultra broadband, and IP), crazy SG&A costs (of something like 16.4% at its peak), insane service contracts (with an annual guaranteed aggregate loss of Euro 600M, I think). And then we have the ever popular 96% of revenue being derived from only 60 countries as I recall, yet the company was in about 180 countries??? Huh?

    You may be right about asset sales. Maybe one can consider the sale of patents as "an asset disposal".

    I still find the now several year journey to extract value out of company patents to be very perplexing. Talk about a failed idea to date. I agree with an analyst who pointed out that NOK and ERIC are hugely successful (each at Euro 500M to 600M per year in licensing revenue) because they have so many MOBILE PHONE PATENTS...which ARE valuable. Not ALU! All they can manage is about Euro 75M annually, give or take.

    Let hope that NOK really, really wants ALU's wireless unit...and better yet, I think, that they would be willing to buy a 49% stake.

  • Reply to

    Predictions for the upcoming week?

    by joeybabe1 Sep 6, 2014 1:45 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Sep 7, 2014 4:27 PM Flag


    From my point of view, Ben oversaw a prime example of wealth destruction, brought the company to its knees, and only saved it by giving it one last opportunity by outrageously (but necessarily) hocking the company's patent portfolio in the Goldman bond deal. Were it not for Michel, and his skill to execute a complex turnaround plan, ALU would have probably folded.

    IT MAKES ZERO DIFFERENCE TO THE PRICE OF THE STOCK what anyone says here about ALU, good or bad. There are some 700 million ADR's, and about 2.1 billion French shares. In addition, the stock trades about 9 million shares a day in the US and about 35 million shares in France. So the tiny, tiny, tiny number of people who access the yahoo finance ALU page, even it some make a decision based upon what is posted here, is meaningless. And are we to believe that someone would actually be stupid enough to base their purchase or sell decision upon an ANONYMOUS poster. Not likely. A person would be better off burning their money. So anyone attempting to influence someone to buy or sell is laughably wasting their time in terms of the stock price.

    Yes, I still have my position.

    I was also very surprised by IP's big shortfall in 2Q, and therefore the top-line shortfall, and larger than expected loss. However, there were some good signs/improvements in other balance sheet metrics. I can accept the notion of "calanderization" for one quarter. Also, I was surprised by Michel's prediction of 7 Billion Euro's for IP in 2015. That is quite a jump for where we are today. So I am patient barring another problem in 3Q.

    ALU still needs to raise somewhere around Euro 500M to meet its asset disposal goal of Euro 1B by the end of 2015. And outside of core, what does ALU have left of that value besides wireless now that the company is IPOing Submarine Cable. So the full or partial sale (a partner) of wireless, probably to NOK, is due in the next few months, to close by EOY 2015.

    Patience is the key.

  • Reply to

    Predictions for the upcoming week?

    by joeybabe1 Sep 6, 2014 1:45 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight Sep 6, 2014 11:03 PM Flag

    Well, wb......if someone has been perennially short ALU, then Ben in fact did a great job.....LOL.

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