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Alcatel-Lucent Message Board

rumors_twilight 6 posts  |  Last Activity: May 9, 2014 2:17 AM Member since: Sep 5, 2012
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  • Reply to

    Only half a $ Billion in cash burned

    by signal_attenuation May 9, 2014 1:52 AM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight May 9, 2014 2:17 AM Flag

    wb....I look forward to seeing what tomorrow brings. But I am more pleased with the notion that doing so well in 1Q, their toughest Q of the year, the floor for the stock will move up again....back into the low to mid $4 range. 1Q results are certainly confidence building for investors and stock holders.

    Catch you later.....

  • Reply to

    I think it's good?

    by wb46 May 9, 2014 1:22 AM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight May 9, 2014 2:08 AM Flag


    I would guess that we will see at least a 20 cent gain tomorrow....or about 5 percent. By handily beating the loss estimate of 8 cents a share, it might be possible for ALU to actually report a tiny profit this year.....if we are lucky. As you know, ALU usually finds itself in a deep hole coming out of 1Q, which makes it impossible for them to even come close to making money on an annual basis. This year, with 2 years of restructuring behind them, and with their renewed product focus, they will either make a small profit, or come pretty close to doing so.....

    And aren't we due more information on the sale of a major asset....more than likely the Submarine Unit? And I wonder if there is any truth to the NOK rumor. Euro 4.1 does not seem like enough for ALU, a company in the midst of a successful restructuring. My guess is that NOK will try to buy ALU's wireless they need the high margin US market to be competitive.

    Anyway, it was another great Q under Michel.

  • Reply to

    I think it's good?

    by wb46 May 9, 2014 1:22 AM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight May 9, 2014 1:59 AM Flag

    wb...I don't think that cash burn is a problem so long as the money is being seen as being spent on a restructuring program THAT IS WORKING. Every one knows that ALU was near BK a mere 18 months ago. And since that point in time, the company has reported some level of progress every Q toward resolving their cost structure well as focusing the company on business lines that are strong performers. Strong product offerings, with good margins, and a lower cost structure.....and ALU finally has a winning hand. Lets hope that 2Q is equally strong.

  • Reply to

    I think it's good?

    by wb46 May 9, 2014 1:22 AM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight May 9, 2014 1:50 AM Flag

    wb...looks like a great report to me....especially since we are talking about 1Q....

  • rumors_twilight rumors_twilight May 9, 2014 1:49 AM Flag

    Another excellent Q for ALU.....keeping the string of performance intact.

    Nice margin improvement, and improvement in operating cash flow, and even a small adjusted operating income.....and of course, crushing the bottom line consensus estimate.

    This was a very important Q for ALU, since it is their weakest Q of the year. It suggests the company's restructuring of the last 2 years is working, and gaining traction. Hopefully, barring some bad macro economic problems later this year, the trend will continue.

    I like it that:

    "The Group also announces today that it intends to implement, in 2015, a one-time offer to about 45,000 U.S. retirees and former employees and related beneficiaries who are receiving monthly pension benefit payments the opportunity to elect to convert those payments into a single, lump-sum payment. Payments to eligible participants and beneficiaries who elect to participate in the offer would constitute a complete settlement of our pension liabilities with respect to them."

    Any effort to reduce pension liabilities seems like a good idea to me.

    Next up is the annual meeting.....perhaps the first in many, many years that WILL NOT be characterized by vitriol, finger pointing, and teeth gnashing.

    Michel is doing a GREAT job......and I think we should see a nice pop tomorrow morning, as more and more investors become convinced that ALU's turnaround is the real deal.

    Still, ALU continues to get far too much revenue from only one market, the US. That is a risky proposition, should the US market falter, as it most certainly will, when the LTE buildout nears an end. ALU needs to get its costs under deep control before that happens. The company needs to be comfortably profitable as soon as possible.

  • Reply to

    Nice article on possible Nok/ALU deal

    by sam.deanj May 6, 2014 1:29 PM
    rumors_twilight rumors_twilight May 7, 2014 1:58 AM Flag


    I see we are once again on the cusp of another Q report. And now we will soon see, after 2 years of restructuring, just how effective the restructuring has been. I think ALU will beat the bottom line estimate. The top line...maybe not.

    I really don't think that NOK will try to buy all of ALU. Instead, I think it is likely that they may take a shot at buying ALU's wireless division. A deal for ALL the company runs head on into French politics and stated strategic priorities and interests.

    But if a deal were forthcoming for all of ALU, I expect it would have a pretty hefty premium....say a price in the low $6 placate the government and investors. And this is especially true if 1Q provides strong evidence that the restructuring is gaining traction....and that ALU will eventually recover.

    I definitely have a good deal of trepidation about the upcoming Q report....but up until now, Michel has done a great lets hope that tradition continues in 1Q.

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