Sat, Apr 19, 2014, 2:16 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed

Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

run_by_hr 478 posts  |  Last Activity: 22 hours ago Member since: Jun 1, 1998
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • Walter is idling a good portion of their Canadian Met operation (Wolverine, Willow Creek and Brule mines). Cutting 700+ jobs. Others are scaling back production. China have been buying at Spot (well 90% of the time) has killed the forward contract biz ... but ... that may change quickly as the bottom is in.

    Unlike thermal where competing resources cost dictate energy source usage, Met is Met. There is no substitute. It is strictly a supply and demand equation. Right now there is large supply and a smaller demand. As one (or both) change, good things will (not if) happen. In North America, that may well be this winter.

    Run

  • Reply to

    What is going on?

    by bill_billingsly Apr 17, 2014 2:00 PM
    run_by_hr run_by_hr Apr 17, 2014 2:06 PM Flag

    Did you look at the volume under the daily price graph? Did not look like a big dump to me. A 1 min period this AM was 360k. This fall was about 120k volume + a few more over minutes.

    Rebalancing.

    Run

  • Reply to

    EIA: 24 Bcf Natty Injection ... ouch

    by run_by_hr Apr 17, 2014 10:33 AM
    run_by_hr run_by_hr Apr 17, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    Found some of it again. Google 'Sourcewatch Natural gas transmission leakage rates". They actually site the loss of 3 Tcf/year in the US alone. I think that is high. I heard the 2.2 number on more than one site.

    How about this quote "Current USEPA estimates place global leakage of methane at 3 trillion cubic feet annually[15], or 3.2% of global production[17]. Direct emissions of methane represented 14.3% of all global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2004 [18]."

    Yikesters Batman! This DOESN'T account for the fracking releases that are occurring and NOT being measured, yet.

    Good luck in your search. If you value our environment and do your research, you will find that natural gas is neither clean nor a non-pollutant to a magnitude hardly any can fathom.

    Run

  • Reply to

    EIA: 24 Bcf Natty Injection ... ouch

    by run_by_hr Apr 17, 2014 10:33 AM
    run_by_hr run_by_hr Apr 17, 2014 1:06 PM Flag

    Excellent question! I have to admit, I can't remember. My age and quantity of read articles are working against me.

    However, since I found it the first time, I bet you could through Google searches. I will also.

    First hit when I just tried = Found a NARUC paper from Paul Metro – Pennsylvania Public Utility
    Commission stating 4% (four percent) of gas distribution in Pennsylvania is unaccounted for. They want to reduce it by 0.5%/year (good luck with that).

    Let me know what you find.

    Best,

    Run

  • Reply to

    EIA: 24 Bcf Natty Injection ... ouch

    by run_by_hr Apr 17, 2014 10:33 AM
    run_by_hr run_by_hr Apr 17, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    Agree Brawn, their predictive models have turned out to be more horrible than horrible. They need fresh/new applied statisticians and a bunch of really good programmers.

    Will it help coal? Met is still the weight on top. As I have said over and over and over again, this puts folk I know on the East coast in jeopardy to meet their payments. Future contracts for Oct/Nov are going to skyrocket as will the charges passed on to my friends.

    That aside, and as I have been also on about for years, they finally figured out that fracking is releasing copious quantities of methane into our atmosphere. I mean like 20x the sum of all CO2 produced from burning coal. What the heck? Folk didn't realize that? At 25x the GWP of CO2, the real enemy is methane.

    Oh, the sum of all utilities also reports 'losing' 2.2 trillion cubic feet (t(rillion)) between the distribution center and the consumer. I wonder, now where did all that gas go? Hmmmm.

    Run

  • That isn't much and next week weeks report will include this cold snap where folk turned back on their furnaces.

    America is in a very precarious energy situation; the East may be in pretty big trouble come a cold fall.

    Run

  • Looks like a house is buying in. Large 100K+ minute spikes. Only time will tell if it will hold (retailer support).

    Run

    PS - I have so many 'newly formed' Yahoo! aliases blocked but yet it seems most of the posts are from these fringe non-investors (I can see they posted but not sure about what). Are there that many kooks out there now prowling or have they mostly found their way here?

  • PRB over $13. CAPP over $60. NAPP almost $69. Good news.

    Now for that pesky global recovery. Buildings, cars, infrastructure ... Met recovery soon.

    Run

  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Apr 10, 2014 11:51 AM Flag

    Natty spot on the move; traders see the danger in the East for the injection season. Up .10 (2%+) to $4.68/mmBtu. Actually up .14 cents from low of this AM.

    I see the little green lady whiner is posting over and over and over. Is it crying? No need to answer, it needs attention.

    Run

  • Check out the daily chart, shows sentiment.

    Large volume on price increases and very low volume on price decreases.

    It will 'putz' the rest of the day will low volume retailer selling without news. It is what it is.

    Run

  • Reply to

    Methane ... injection season may fall short?

    by run_by_hr Apr 10, 2014 10:27 AM
    run_by_hr run_by_hr Apr 10, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    Injection this AM = 4 Bcf. Interesting number: East is still negative at -5 where the issue will be.

    All storage, transport and usage local. If not connected, who cares. East is in for an interesting year.

    Run

  • From Bill Busron at naturalgasntel. Google "Key Storage Report On Tap: May Called 4 Cents Lower"

    Run

  • Reply to

    Arch downgraded again this AM

    by bill_billingsly Apr 10, 2014 8:58 AM
    run_by_hr run_by_hr Apr 10, 2014 9:17 AM Flag

    An oldie but a goodie! Thanks for the smile Bill.

    I find it hilarious that each downgrade brings hardly any institutional sells. Everyone is always on about investigating the houses; they somehow always get by with 'our research and investment departments are separate and have no contact'.

    So their research sides downgrade, but their investment side (retail, institutional) are on the buy side. Hilarious coincidence when it happens 95% of the time.

    I have worked at Edward Jones, A.G. Edwards (now Wells Fargo retail) and Wells Fargo Capital Markets. At least Jones never pulled this. They were always spot on (except for the old American Funds thing but we won't go into that here).

    Run

  • Reply to

    Normal Volume

    by dwayneluk81 Apr 9, 2014 1:20 PM
    run_by_hr run_by_hr Apr 9, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    Good call Dwayne,

    Daily volume actually just BELOW average.

    Some retailers jumped ship (frightened) but dollars to donuts no house, trust, fund or pension did. Check the volume chart, one minute of 261k dump early morning and then nothing. End of day shows volume coming back in as price rose.

    Green day tomorrow. Good songs.

    Run

  • Reply to

    Sold all yesterday, Heres why

    by shmickersmack Apr 9, 2014 10:06 AM
    run_by_hr run_by_hr Apr 9, 2014 1:36 PM Flag

    Tommy Lee Jones from the Fugitive "I don't care"

    Run

  • Reply to

    Normal Volume

    by dwayneluk81 Apr 9, 2014 1:20 PM
    run_by_hr run_by_hr Apr 9, 2014 1:35 PM Flag

    PPS build toward earnings. 7 trading days left.

    Run

  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Apr 9, 2014 11:54 AM Flag

    And here they all are! I am sooo surprised. Good luck! Let's watch the price as we go to earnings. Will you disappear again?

    Run

  • Reply to

    Sold all yesterday, Heres why

    by shmickersmack Apr 9, 2014 10:06 AM
    run_by_hr run_by_hr Apr 9, 2014 10:34 AM Flag

    Next time, post the day of the trade and how much. Then, just maybe then, someone will believe you.

    Run

  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Apr 9, 2014 10:33 AM Flag

    Indeed pin,

    Great correlation with a 'advise house trying to cover' when a company announces their earnings release date; happened to be 2 days ago. Arch will announce earnings on a Tuesday (22nd), If you were going to have terrible forward looking statements, you announce on a Friday.

    Sooo, there is trouble in these here waters. UBS is shaking the tree before earnings.

    Run

  • Okay, a UBS analyst finally figured out that Met won't recover as fast as thermal. Wow, what a revelation! They also didn't publish what US inventory is at coal plants and how much it will take to replenish them (See gorilla posts).

    But what about Coal spot price release on Monday?

    PRB hit $12.85. It's highest in years. Easy to see on the EIA website (not they are reliable or accurate, but at least you can call a utility and ask what they are paying). In fact, both CAPP and NAPP were up also, CAPP at ~$60 and NAPP at $68+.

    Thermal is just fine and contracts are looking good.

    Met bottomed, global digging is slowing, it will take a year to take care of the glut. Not too bad a picture.

    Run

ACI
5.01+0.04(+0.80%)Apr 17 4:01 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

i
Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.
Weibo Corporation
NasdaqGSThu, Apr 17, 2014 4:00 PM EDT