Incorrect. The key point is who cares! Marcellus fields are not connected the the primary markets who need it (NYC, New England). What dey gonna' do, put it in weather balloons and float it over to them?
The only thing that matters here is distribution limitations.
Walter is idling a good portion of their Canadian Met operation (Wolverine, Willow Creek and Brule mines). Cutting 700+ jobs. Others are scaling back production. China have been buying at Spot (well 90% of the time) has killed the forward contract biz ... but ... that may change quickly as the bottom is in.
Unlike thermal where competing resources cost dictate energy source usage, Met is Met. There is no substitute. It is strictly a supply and demand equation. Right now there is large supply and a smaller demand. As one (or both) change, good things will (not if) happen. In North America, that may well be this winter.
Did you look at the volume under the daily price graph? Did not look like a big dump to me. A 1 min period this AM was 360k. This fall was about 120k volume + a few more over minutes.
Found some of it again. Google 'Sourcewatch Natural gas transmission leakage rates". They actually site the loss of 3 Tcf/year in the US alone. I think that is high. I heard the 2.2 number on more than one site.
How about this quote "Current USEPA estimates place global leakage of methane at 3 trillion cubic feet annually, or 3.2% of global production. Direct emissions of methane represented 14.3% of all global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2004 ."
Yikesters Batman! This DOESN'T account for the fracking releases that are occurring and NOT being measured, yet.
Good luck in your search. If you value our environment and do your research, you will find that natural gas is neither clean nor a non-pollutant to a magnitude hardly any can fathom.
Excellent question! I have to admit, I can't remember. My age and quantity of read articles are working against me.
However, since I found it the first time, I bet you could through Google searches. I will also.
First hit when I just tried = Found a NARUC paper from Paul Metro – Pennsylvania Public Utility
Commission stating 4% (four percent) of gas distribution in Pennsylvania is unaccounted for. They want to reduce it by 0.5%/year (good luck with that).
Let me know what you find.
Agree Brawn, their predictive models have turned out to be more horrible than horrible. They need fresh/new applied statisticians and a bunch of really good programmers.
Will it help coal? Met is still the weight on top. As I have said over and over and over again, this puts folk I know on the East coast in jeopardy to meet their payments. Future contracts for Oct/Nov are going to skyrocket as will the charges passed on to my friends.
That aside, and as I have been also on about for years, they finally figured out that fracking is releasing copious quantities of methane into our atmosphere. I mean like 20x the sum of all CO2 produced from burning coal. What the heck? Folk didn't realize that? At 25x the GWP of CO2, the real enemy is methane.
Oh, the sum of all utilities also reports 'losing' 2.2 trillion cubic feet (t(rillion)) between the distribution center and the consumer. I wonder, now where did all that gas go? Hmmmm.
That isn't much and next week weeks report will include this cold snap where folk turned back on their furnaces.
America is in a very precarious energy situation; the East may be in pretty big trouble come a cold fall.
Looks like a house is buying in. Large 100K+ minute spikes. Only time will tell if it will hold (retailer support).
PS - I have so many 'newly formed' Yahoo! aliases blocked but yet it seems most of the posts are from these fringe non-investors (I can see they posted but not sure about what). Are there that many kooks out there now prowling or have they mostly found their way here?
PRB over $13. CAPP over $60. NAPP almost $69. Good news.
Now for that pesky global recovery. Buildings, cars, infrastructure ... Met recovery soon.
Natty spot on the move; traders see the danger in the East for the injection season. Up .10 (2%+) to $4.68/mmBtu. Actually up .14 cents from low of this AM.
I see the little green lady whiner is posting over and over and over. Is it crying? No need to answer, it needs attention.
Check out the daily chart, shows sentiment.
Large volume on price increases and very low volume on price decreases.
It will 'putz' the rest of the day will low volume retailer selling without news. It is what it is.
Injection this AM = 4 Bcf. Interesting number: East is still negative at -5 where the issue will be.
All storage, transport and usage local. If not connected, who cares. East is in for an interesting year.
An oldie but a goodie! Thanks for the smile Bill.
I find it hilarious that each downgrade brings hardly any institutional sells. Everyone is always on about investigating the houses; they somehow always get by with 'our research and investment departments are separate and have no contact'.
So their research sides downgrade, but their investment side (retail, institutional) are on the buy side. Hilarious coincidence when it happens 95% of the time.
I have worked at Edward Jones, A.G. Edwards (now Wells Fargo retail) and Wells Fargo Capital Markets. At least Jones never pulled this. They were always spot on (except for the old American Funds thing but we won't go into that here).
Good call Dwayne,
Daily volume actually just BELOW average.
Some retailers jumped ship (frightened) but dollars to donuts no house, trust, fund or pension did. Check the volume chart, one minute of 261k dump early morning and then nothing. End of day shows volume coming back in as price rose.
Green day tomorrow. Good songs.
And here they all are! I am sooo surprised. Good luck! Let's watch the price as we go to earnings. Will you disappear again?