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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

run_by_hr 162 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 22, 2015 10:37 AM Member since: Jun 1, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Two weeks Run

    by king_natural_gas Dec 4, 2014 6:58 PM
    run_by_hr run_by_hr Dec 5, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    Watching closely. Did you short UNG? You should be big into the money. Do a mark-to-market from my post date/time on the challenge for you to short to current share price. Wow, huh?

    I do not completely understand the -22 completely with the east being -34 of it. However, I do understand the 4 day 'holiday' with businesses mostly shut for Turkey Day and I would bet a lot of underreported withdrawals for the week. This week is midland temp wise so ... next week report maybe a -40 Bcf???

    When you posted the below, was it for east or sum total? As you are all too familiar, all production and storage is only important to connected distribution networks. So a large build in the midwest means relatively little to most of the northeast. The east is still -42 Bcf behind last year and overall, -227 Bcf behind. So, good luck with that in just the next two reporting periods. I expect a gracious victory or a contrite loss.

    Last, did you research the ginormous drop in Natty rigs (see Nov 28th report)??? Down to 344 and sinking fast. -3.1% down from the week before and a -6.27% from the year before. As I said, if they can't make money, they stop drilling or drill for other 'stuff'. That will constrain supply and all will come back into balance ... it's a commodity.



    king_natural_gas•Nov 27, 2014 1:36 PMFlag

    In three weeks NG storage will be above last year's level.

  • Reply to

    "Hands Up Don't Shoot"

    by bill_billingsly Dec 4, 2014 9:01 AM
    run_by_hr run_by_hr Dec 4, 2014 9:21 AM Flag

    A group here in St. Louis raised $3,000 to put up a billboard simply reading: "Pants up, Don't Loot"


    That fellow on MSNBC (Morning Joe show?) summed up the entire thing quite well. He went off, but he was spot on and there is just no comeback when someone is dead on.

    Police need to change their tactics? Huh? You attack a police officer, you run a very, very high likelihood of getting shot. Race matter? Color matter? Language matter? Sexual orientation matter? Again, really?

    I don't ever remember this being an issue for the last, oh, 2,000+ years in any civilization (except countries on the continent of Africa???).


  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Dec 1, 2014 1:26 PM Flag

    Or ... our fine citizens keep torching businesses ... that may work also.

    What a terrible part of St. Louis' history.


  • According to NOAA records (I am old but not old enough for a majority of these readings!):

    From 1838 to 2013, the AVERAGE ANNUAL TEMPERATURE for St. Louis is 56.3, In 2013, the yearly average was 56.4 (CO2 and global warming no doubt account for the 00.1 degree?).

    Surmise it to say that in 2014 it will be considerably below 2013 as exhibited by one of the coldest winters on record and now an early chill in Nov/Dec to the midwest.

    Personally, I am for staying with the average. All the blowhards on both sides of the man made 'global warming' argument need to yell at each other LOUDER and MORE OFTEN. This will emit more CO2 and hopefully WARM ST. LOUIS up a little more!


  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Nov 28, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    Not 2016 is it yet there??? Hehehe, show me the analyst projections when SCTY will make a profit? Show me how a republican legislature will extend the 30% tax credit? Show me how many folk who make, oh say, $150,000 or less can buy a Tesla?

    2016, DOA. Read it, live it, learn it.


  • From the Thanksgiving Day Boston Globe Business: 'Heating oil prices fall as natural gas prices start to rise'

    "Natural gas prices are rising in the region, while home heating-oil prices have plunged to their lowest levels in four years."

    "It remains significantly cheaper — about 40 percent less — to heat a home with natural gas, but natural gas prices are on the rise. Northeast Utilities, the owner of NStar, recently said winter rates for Nstar’s 300,000 natural gas customers will increase by 16 percent this winter, to about $171 a month per average household. The increase is driven largely by pipeline constraints that are limiting the flow of natural gas into New England, utility officials say. Since regional demand for gas is outstripping supplies, prices are rising.

    In addition, NStar’s 1 million electricity customers are getting hit with a nearly 30 percent jump in prices this winter, tied to the rising cost of natural gas used by power plant owners to generate electricity. The 1.3 million customers who buy electricity from National Grid will pay be paying 37 percent more this winter. (National Grid’s residential gas rates will decline slightly because of a one-time credit.)"

    Is this what you want King? 30% rise for 1 million customers, pipeline constraints, and not enough gas to meet demand? It will definitely up the ante for Hub. Now drillers are caught in a quandry, they can drill and get better prices for WHAT THEY CAN SELL. But if there is no way to get it to the utilities (garden hose?), just what is a rigger to do?


  • Reply to

    inconvenient TRUTH......

    by coalfox1 Nov 27, 2014 10:59 AM
    run_by_hr run_by_hr Nov 27, 2014 9:03 PM Flag

    Indeed there cfox. It is about the width and depth of the heating season. It is beginning earlier and ending later. It is measurably colder for longer stretches.

    Maunder Minimum theorists and Old Farmer's Almanac staff have both been correct. (Farmer's is over 80% correct since it's first publication).

    How about we put those scientists back on the boat to go thru the northern Artic passage again? How did that last one end up? Hardy-har-har. Happy Turkey Day!


  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Nov 27, 2014 8:56 PM Flag

    You made me laugh out loud ... Tally Ho there dear King ... Happy Turkey Day!

    The East is going to get injections from ... from ... the garden hoses? I just don't get it.

    Do you know something about the weather over the next few weeks everyone else is not aware of except for 2 to 3 warm days ahead?

    I do like the confidence. With that kind of confidence, what did you short UNG at (or how many puts did you buy)?

    Again, do you want high Hub prices and suppliers drill-drill-drill gauging the poor and needy or low Hub prices and suppliers take more rigs out of commission with the poor and needy being able to handle the payments?


  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Nov 26, 2014 4:39 PM Flag

    I-D-I-O-T. Back from memory lane:

    shouldnt have gone against the most powerful man in the world

    by hulkmonstersmash•Feb 11, 2014 11:59 AM

    obama is the most powerful man in the world and he said he hated coal. how could i have ignored such an omen and bought this worthless stock. should have bought solar stock cause obama like it.

  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Nov 26, 2014 3:30 PM Flag

    Hey MasterMechanic,

    Type in "natalie's cakes" into Google. It is the first link, a GoFundMe authorized site.

    She is a terrific woman.


  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Nov 26, 2014 2:52 PM Flag

    Oh, BTW uninformed one, it is now 3.43 after just last week and falling FAST. It will be high 3.2's next week. Withdrawal season hasn't even started, duh! Go do some research, I have confidence you can understand simple numbers.

    Like the EIA, you are almost always wrong on projections. Write it down and save it!


  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Nov 26, 2014 2:50 PM Flag

    You are truly a young fool. No understanding of drillers and associated profits/losses on the supply side. Try to explain why this year is the same as last in terms of PPB of crude. I HAVE to hear this one.

    Did you forget I have been in XOM for over 30 years? Have seen it all. Study up butter cup!


  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Nov 26, 2014 2:47 PM Flag

    But yet you asked to discuss my DCA and yet you dodge your own request, why is that?

    I am sure you can find on Google how pipeline capacity will be completed end-of-2016 as permits are given and construction continues. As they say, 'that ain't today brotha'". All you know as I have pointed out, is what you read. I have lived in Andover, MA, I have many friends there on fixed incomes, they can't afford increases. Are you to callous or self-important to understand this?

    Try reading the last FITCH rating I just posted. Guess what, oil PPB goes down, drillers stop, NatGas by products are constricted. Called capitalism.

    XOM will is and will be hurting as a supplier.

    It's a big circle of life young man. Coal is KING for electricity generation. Want to argue that fact? Give me some data there that contradicts this.

    Second, you have lied before and you will lie again. There is no way you are anything but a liberal. No way.


  • "The recent drop in Baker Hughes North American oil rig count (declining a total of about 35 rigs, or about 2% since early October) suggests lower pricing has begun to impact capex budgets committed to looking for oil. A longer, more prolonged slump in oil prices might accelerate this trend and lead to further reductions in associated gas supplies, and therefore, greater support for natural gas prices."

    Fitch Ratings
    Mark C. Sadeghian, CFA
    Senior Director
    +1 312 368-2090

    And they didn't even know of the massive withdrawal number today. Hmmm ...

    But, our future (and ANR's) is tied to Met. 50% of profits (or losses) are sourced there.


  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Nov 26, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    Young chinese person, you would come to Ferguson, you would fit right in. ;-)


    Ah, nuts, wrong child idiot, let me try again.

    Marcellus shale not connected to NY/NE dummy. You know nothing. Grow up and get a private sector job when you get out of the house. The other left coast child.

    How about that name, address and phone so we can get together and discuss my DCA? Come on, don't be afraid ... most of my life is spent helping underprivileged children.

  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Nov 26, 2014 1:14 PM Flag

    Young chinese person, you would come to Ferguson, you would fit right in. ;-)


  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Nov 26, 2014 1:01 PM Flag

    What did you think of Synciere? He is alot bigger and faster now ... my boy is his FB ... also on 2nd string. Our backs run in shifts, 2 plays FB/TB, then 2 plays second FB/TB and we switch all game no matter what. I have current film but the stalkers here are just too weird to post anything specific.

    My D is a 4-4 Stack with Corners press. 1-2-3-4 X/Y blitzes, or Corner Blitz. We would go Power-5 on short yardage or for a heavy run team. 3-5 on a passing situation or a pass-happy club like Kirkwood (the HS team was 12th in the nation 2 years ago).

    Kids favorite play was Go-Go. Everyone goes but 2 corners and safety (who become the 3 linebackers). Second favorite was House where both Middle Linebackers delay blitz.

    Gosh to I love football. I like but don't love our St. Louis Rams however.


  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Nov 26, 2014 12:53 PM Flag

    Wow -162 Bcf withdrawal. I knew it would be big but yikes!

    Comments King_Natural_Gas??? East is now almost 9% below 5-year average.

    Are they going to hook sprinker hoses together to get the gas from the Marcellus to NY/NE???


  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Nov 26, 2014 10:29 AM Flag

    Double excellent Bill!

    Sounds like you are connected to a parochial or other Christian educational institution. I am public. You know my rules, not a word about religion. HOWEVER, there are ways ;-)

    Like you, we are a MS team (7th grade). 12 games is a great number for a MS team. With our Jamboree, pre-season game, 7 game regular season and then 2 game championship series, we couldn't have played another game. How did you get in 12?

    That aside, if you want to watch our team's second string tailback/starting FS when he was 9 years-old ... type in 'Synciere Jamison youtube' on Google. If he works harder he can get more playing time on offense, but as the DC, that isn't up to me.


  • run_by_hr run_by_hr Nov 26, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    As the defensive coordinator of a very fine St. Louis football team, I can tell you race means absolutely nothing to me or the young men. When we focus on TEAM and JOB and EFFORT to achieve a goal, there isn't anything these young men can't accomplish.

    Economic class? 1/3 are below the poverty line, 1/3 barely above and another 1/3 are middle class.

    Racial makeup of the team? You name it I have it. Do I care? That would be a GIANT NO!

    When young men are given a clear GOAL, a strong leader and a means thru instruction to get there, they can move mountains.

    How did we do? Undefeated at 9-0. No one every scored more than a single touchdown in any game against us. 305 points for, 45 against.

    How many curse words? Zero. How many personal foul penalties? Zero. How many Yes Sir/No Sirs to the officials, every time, every time.


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