I agree with you. It is amazing how soon people
forget. I remember last summer when everyone thought the
tech and internet stocks were dogs and would never
recover. Internet stocks were down 30 to 70%. That became
probably the greatest buying opportunity of the
While I don't think we'll ever see another six month
period quite so dramatic as the last, this current
selloff, like all others, will someday be a pathetic blip
on a chart.
You're also right with respect to
the economies growth and its impact on the old
economy stocks. The economy's overall growth doesn't
paint the true picture because it is an average of the
fast growing tech stocks and the below average growth
old economy stocks. When the economy does slow, it
will become apparent that the old economy stocks are
crawling while the tech stock growth is not nearly as
affected. The world's technology infrastructure will grow
no matter what.
Actually, xxcalxx is correct and you are
therefore wrong (or WRONG, as you would write it). If
anyone who is long a certain stock puts in a limit order
to sell, that number of shares is unavailable for
shorting. If all longs did this, there could be no
shorting. All you need to do is put a limit order to sell
your shares at $200 or some ridiculously high number
By the way, since a formal education
does not appear to have been a part of your childhood,
let me give you a little english
"Your" as in "your lack of intelligence" is spelled
"You're" as in "you are an idiot" is what is called a
contraction and is spelled Y-O-U-'-R-E.
I must confess that TT's absence may be my doing.
As much entertainment as his ignorance sometimes
provided, I was getting tired of having to sift through his
posts and the dozens of responses to each one of his
posts trying to find useful information.
e-mailed Yahoo on Friday and asked them to review his
postings. I got an e-mail over the weekend that they were
looking into them. It appears they may have agreed that
he destroyed the functionality of this board with
his useless posts.
I did read the article. There is absolutely
nothing in that article to indicate it was a direct quote
from Hussey. In fact, it appears obvious to me that it
was the journalist's commentary.
understand what you would like to see. I too would like to
the world to know about FFIV passing CSCO. I just
disagree with you on whether or not it should be the
company that brings that news out.
Your example of
AOL announcing another one million customers is
different. That is the kind of news release a company should
make: objective reports about measurable progress.
Think of it like you would the presidential election.
What is more useful, Gore and Bush standing around
insisting that they are each the best, or Gore and Bush
talking about where they stand on actual issues (i.e.
I am not totally defending FFIV's PR moves, they
have made some blunders. But there is nothing I hate
more than a company that tosses out completely
meaningless news releases five times a week just to pump
their stock price.
Headline: FFIV BUYS OFFICE
SUPPLIES AT A 10% DISCOUNT AND SAVES $247.38!!!
I can't believe how many people are whining about
FFIV's PR not putting out a release on this so-called
"news" in the Seattle paper.
Give me a break! It
was just a couple of sentences in an article in some
local newspaper. FFIV probably doesn't even know about
it. Do you think a company is going to respond to or
reiterate every damn thing that every little newspaper or
magazine across the country writes about them? Geez, maybe
they should put out a press release that someone on
the Yahoo message board said FFIV will be a 10 bagger
by the end of the year.
Not to mention, on
this particular bit of "news" I think it would be a
really big mistake to come out with a national press
release saying "Guess what world, we just passed Cisco!"
That's nothing but trash talking. A company PR
department should stick to business matters: reporting on
new deals, partnerships, customers, earnings
Your world: FFIV revenue = 2
million for 12 months.
Actual world: FFIV revenue
= 19.2 million in THREE MONTHS.
Wow, you are
a really good researcher. You've obviously put a
lot of thought and analysis into your decision. Yeah,
you make 2 million day trading. Sure. And I'm really
Bill Gates. I just like to hang around the FFIV board
to kill time inbetween court appearances. What do
you guys think of my new Windows 2000?
all a favor. Go play with a loaded gun in a busy
street. You have nothing of use to anyone. People like
you rely on scaring naive investors into selling
because you know you lack the intelligence to do actual
research and make smart decisions (you can't even click on
one button to find out their revenue
The funniest thing is, even if you could influence
everyone on this board to sell, I'm sure we represent such
a very minute portion of FFIV's float that it would
have all of a 1/8th impact on the stock (your
$2,000,000 fortune notwithstanding, of course). When you
make money, it is pure luck.
Just so you know,
it's easy to tell when someone is lying about their
net worth or the number of shares they own. How do
you tell? Because they mention it. No one that really
had the money or the number of shares would bring it
up. They're interested in making money. Not in making
themselves look good to a bunch of electronic
Now you'll have to excuse me. I have to jump in my
Ferarri so I can go to my mansion and count how much
money my 134,578,987 shares of Cisco are worth. I'd ask
for your help, but you might struggle with counting
after you run out of fingers and toes.
I suggest you get in as much posting as you can
in the near future. You will hopefully find your
ability to post severely hampered now that Yahoo will be
reviewing your posts. It's not that I am not able to just
ignore you. It's just that in my busy schedule, you're a
waste of time and you clutter the board needlessly
(story of your life, I guess).
I must say, in
some ways I'll miss the free entertainment you
provide. Not to mention, you always give many of us an ego
boost. We only have to consider that there are
unfortunate people like you in the world and we realize how
lucky and well off we are.
Now don't forget to
be at the construction site bright and early
tomorrow. They need those ditches dug. And you need the
money so that you can short 10,000 shares again (like
anyone believes you would ever have the financial
wherewithall to short even 1,000 shares).
Good luck in
your investments. I'm sure that $12.50 per paycheck
will really pay off someday.
Maybe what I should have said was just that I
disagree with your analysis. I am not at all saying that
ISIL won't dip, it very well may. I'm just saying that
it is not tracking the market or necessarily even
the chip stocks at this point. As you said, it went
up before the market rallied, and it has drifted as
the market has moved up. This is due to specific
circumstances surrounding it because of its recent IPO. In
other words, it is a "special case."
beaten down to $47 during all the pre-Greenspan fear.
Then the brokerage coverages seem to snap investor out
of their daze and they recognized that ISIL deserved
to be higher. Then, independent of the market, it
jumped. As usual, investors exaggerated the move.
Regardless of what the market did the last few days, ISIL
was going to drift down. You can't just jump from $47
to $70+ in one day and expect to hold those gains. A
pullback and a basing is healthy.
If ISIL drops, it
won't necessarily be because of the market going down.
Likewise, if the market moves up, ISIL will not by
definition follow. As an IPO, investors are watching it to
see how the management handles being a public
company. Do they know how to keep up interest in their
stock? Do they know how to communicate their progress in
transitioning their business to the higher growth wireless
areas. Will additional coverage come?
what I'm saying is they need to show what they've got
before they get lumped in and move with "the
I hope for your sake that you're
just a short trying to convince us to sell (which, in
spite of all the ALL CAPS and EXCLAMATION POINTS
generally used by shorts,does nothing but announce their
level of intelligence). Because it's either that or you
may be the dumbest guy on the planet (okay, second
dumbest; I don't think anyone could take that honor away
from our pre-adolescent friend TTFEDX).
on what do you base this $70 target? Did you
actually think before you spoke, or would that be too
traumatic for you? The last two weeks were the hardest time
the Nasdaq has recently seen. We had the biotech blow
up, we had the Fed uncertainty, we had a bunch of
economic data out, etc. Through all of that FFIV held its
support level. It bounced off 85-88 time and time again
without fail during the worst sell off we've seen in
months. Yet for some reason, you're telling us that now,
with earnings around the corner and no dark clouds
over the market, FFIV is going to suddenly break the
support level it has maintained for months.
understand that FFIV trades in a very predictable pattern
and does indeed present short opportunities at
certain levels (very limited opportunities). But the
reality is, shorting under 95 is foolish. Nothing is on
your side. You would have to have TTFEDX's uncanny
ability to short at the exact daily high everyday and
cover at the exact low. Only TTFEDX has consistently
shown the ability to do that (funny thing though, he
always seems to tell us that only after the fact; hmmm.)
In fact, he is so good he can short at the high and
cover at the low even if the low occured before the
If shorting is your style, fine. But you've picked a
bad level to try it. Not to mention, if you had any
real gonads or financial power you'd be shorting a
highflier. But hey, if I had your level of intelligence, I
wouldn't be too aggressive either.
What you said makes no sense. First you say that
ISIL has not participated in the run up the last few
days. Then you say that if the market/chip stocks fall,
ISIL will fall at a higher rate.
Now why would
a stock that did not, according to you, participate
in the run up, fall harder in a downturn? History
would tell you it is just the opposite.
way, let's all just realize that this stock was $47
not too long ago. It jumped a great deal, giving some
people a real nice profit for just a few days time. Now
we've got some profit taking, plain and simple. Big
deal. I'm sorry everyone is disappointed that it
doesn't just go up everyday. If any of you know of a
stock like that, please let me know.
Although I've played the IPO aftermarket at least
15 times in the last two years, I am puzzled by the
fact we have seen broker coverage within ISIL's 30 day
quiet period. I haven't seen this happen
Does anyone know how this happened? Does the quiet
period technically cover only the underwriters, such
that other brokers are free to initiate coverage? It
just generally seems that all brokers wait for the
expiration before initiating.
With regard to ISIL's
support levels, we seem to have built some pretty strong
support at 46-48. We've bounced off of those levels
numerous times already. Of course, one could argue that
three weeks of activity hardly constitute building
support. Nevertheless, I think the downside is very
limited for ISIL. I like those types of situations:
limited downside, yet at the cusp of expanding product
lines into an explosive market.
It seems the
majority of investors on this board are knowledgable and
rational. I hope it remains that way. I can certainly do
without the hypesters (ISIL to $400!) and the doomsaying
shorts (ISIL SUCKS! GOING TO $10!).
cchamb, I understand your points. I'm quite sure
JDSU, like all the tech highfliers, is indeed being
swept up in the frenzy.
It's tough to justify
any valuations using absolute terms, even Cisco's. In
my opinion, all you can do is evaluate companies on
a relative basis. When I look at the 40 or so tech
stock highfliers that I follow closely, I see JDSU as
having at least the best chance to someday do what needs
to be done to justify its valuations. I don't think
anyone can determine a mathematical target at this
Right or wrong, the market is awarding higher multiples
to the newcomers, and not just relative to the old
economy stocks but even to the "old" tech giants like
Intel, Cisco, and Microsoft. Is it justifiable?
Certainly not under any historical theories.
long time investor and an accountant for many years, I
a a researcher and analyzer at heart. I sometimes
long for the days when you actually needed to be smart
and do research and apply valuation techniques. But
the reality of today's world is that as more and more
"little guys" come into the world of investing, the
intelligence/knowledge per investor drops significantly. Yet their
dollars have just as much impact as ours. If they are
going to buy, even if their research consisted of
nothing more than looking at the December issue of Money
magazine and seeing which stocks returned 800% last year,
the stocks they buy are going higher. And quite
frankly, they ain't lookin' at PE's. Unfortunately, this
behavior has been positively reinforced by resulting in
I have no illusions about what's
making these stocks fly. I just hope it continues for a
few more years. Then I can retire 15 years early and
not give a damn.
JDSU's market cap is about 94 billion. However,
your revenue figure is pretty far off. For the six
months ended 12/31/99, their revenue was over $500
million. That puts them at well over a billion in revenue
a year going forward. Does even that justify a 94
billion market cap? Only time will tell I
Obviously my bias for JDSU is showing (I've made a fortune
in the stock, not bad for an average Joe with a day
job), but they are the runaway market leader in what is
a potentially enormous market. This is only my
opinion of course, but I view JDSU as the single tech
stock to own if you had to own just one. I think its
growth rate will be phenominal.
As far as
non-investor recognition, that is lacking only because JDSU
does not sell anything to final consumers. Everyone
knows AOL, for instance, because that is a consumer
stock. JDSU just sells to other companies. You'd be
surprised how many non-investors have also never heard of
that small, obscure company called Cisco Systems.
Would you therefore conclude that Cisco might not be a
In 10 years your investment will be worth
$71,237.48. Don't forget that 48 cents.
sarcastic. I understand that we were all new to investing at
some point and I don't mean to sound harsh, but based
on the questions you've asked, you seem to be
particularly naive about investing. If we could answer your
questions, we wouldn't be sitting here on a computer posting
to Yahoo. We'd be on a yacht somewhere with a bunch
My question for you is: why
did you buy JDSU?
Don't buy it because you
read something about it in last month's Money magazine
and you saw that it did really well last year. Find
out what the company actually does, find out the
potential of that market, and look at their competitors.
That will be a good start.
In my opinion, JDSU
is the clear market leader in an industry with
enormous growth potential. I think it (and thus the stock
ultimately), will do extremely well. But guess what? Stocks go
down on some days too. Maybe it will be lower next
week, or next month. Maybe it will never be this low
again. If you find out for sure, let me know. All I can
say is that I am pretty confident in 3-7 years it
will be significantly higher than it is today. That is
as much "certainty" as you can get in the stock
The price target of $70 is probably being viewed
as a disappointment particularly given that the
stock hit $68 on its second or third day of trading.
But the reality is, broker price targets are one of
the most useless pieces of information. How many
times have we seen brokers up their price targets from,
say 120 to 220 because the stock was at 130 one month
after they announced their 120 target? It's politics
people. The brokers are clueless.
important factor in my opinion is this: I think the
"Street" is not yet willing to assign ISIL the same status
as some of the other wireless chip makers because
ISIL has only recently begun to transition its
operations to that high growth market. At this point, it
still makes up a very small proportion or its
But this will continuously change for the better. And
this potential market is huge. In the meantime, ISIL
is a strong company with the financial resources to
make the transition.
Anyone that is bashing Greenspan is advertising
the fact that they know absolutely nothing whatsoever
about economics. Like him or hate him because of his
power over the market, but there is no person on the
planet who is more responsible for the vast wealth that
has been created by the stock market than Greenspan.
Whether you like it or not, or whether you are smart
enough to see it or not, his policies have kept going
what would have ended long ago.
him "reigning us in" right now (and over the last
year), the market would skyrocket in the short term.
BUT...it would skyrocket out of control and come crashing
back down when the party was over. His policies have
allowed the economy to keep going and going and going
such that the market is much higher today than it
would have been had he unleashed it, which would have
caused a crash and burn of epic proportion.
to the fool who said in a recent post that Greenspan
has pushed us to the brink of a recession, what the
hell planet are you on?
Unfortunately, as I'm at work (those damn day
jobs) I generally have time only to check my watch
Anyone know why RDWR is down 10%? I didn't see any news,
at least from the quick glance I was able to take.
Sobesoft, I'm not trying to criticize you, but
your statement about the lock-up release shows that
you are not a very thorough researcher. In fact,
anyone that makes that statement about lock-up releases
(which you see all the time) only proves to an
experience investor that you are a novice.
to popular opinion, lock-up releases are one of the
best long term events in a new stock's life. Of course
pure mathematics almost always makes a stock drop
after the expiration. It takes a couple of days for the
market to absorb the new shares. But do a little study
of some of the stocks that have had lock-up releases
in the last six months (you do know how to do
research, I presume). Examine their post lock-up
performance and tell us what you find.
of new shares allows a whole new group of powerful,
long-term investors (primarily institutions) to get into
the stock, where before they could not (or would
not). How many institutions might be out there that
would like to buy RDWR but can't because of the small
float and the lack of liquidity?
So many large
institutions wouldn't touch a stock like RDWR even if they
loved it, because they would not be able to take a
meaningful enough position without drastically raising the
price. And even if they could avoid driving the price up
as they were trying to buy, many institutions (like
a large tech mutual fund, for instance) could buy
half the damn float and even if the stock did well, it
would add a whopping few pennies to its NAV.
to mention, when a float is small, good long term
holders ironically keep a stock price stay in check
because of a lack of liquidity. I have firsthand
experience with this at work. My company owned 75% of a
publicly traded utility outside the US. The stock price
went nowhere because there was not enough open shares
to make a market. So we sold down to 51%, releasing
millions more shares for the market. Within six months the
value of our 51% interest exceeded the former value of
our 75% interest. Why? Because there were then enough
shares out there to create a market for all potential
buyers. New demand ate up the new supply and then
The old "scare the weak hands with the threat of the
lock-up release" is so pathetic. Please tell me that you
are against RDWR for something more substantive that
TT300FEDX has overwhelmingly pursuaded me with
all his substantive and well-thought out arguments. I
mean come on guys, the ultimate source of timely
knowledge, the WSJ, has supposedly agreed with him. I am
selling every share of FFIV that I have. I think he's
right, it's going to be a penny stock by Friday. In
fact, it will probably go negative and the company will
come after all the longs to give them extra
Thank you so much TT, you have saved me an incredible
sum of money. And congratulations, you will probably
become the first and only short to ever make a 100%
return on a short position. I wish I knew your real name
so that I could name my firstborn child after you.
Hell, forget that. You're such a GOD I will just go
ahead and name them all TT300FEDX.
message boards do you post on? I would like to benefit
from more of your vast supply of knowledge. Clearly
you are such an experienced investor. I bet we'd all
be embarrassed to compare our 100% to 400% rates of
return last year to what you must have made shorting.
Based on how much you talk, it is clear you obviously
made far more. And to think, for awhile I was
overjoyed at having made 315% last year, considering I'm
just a small time investor with a day job. I feel
humbled in your presence. Just to put me in awe, how big
was your return last year?