I'm all for maintaining/increasing principle, whatever it takes.. If it requires a divi cut then so be it; however, it appears they don't have to in the short term.. It all depends on how far the markets want to take down Oil and for how long.. It appears to be a concerted effort to bring Oil down for more than the fundamental reasons of supply/demands.. It's the perfect storm to create a bear raid on Oil.. weak longs, media's constant dreadful outlook on Oil, fund managers dressing up their portfolios, year end tax loss selling, the constant self fulfilling prophecy of analysts out look on Oil.. At some point supply/demand will balance it self out and then we'll see a rush into Oil when the big money is ready to get back in.. In the meantime we still have NatGas Exports right around the corner to help our cause..
From SA.. and most longs here would agree.. Pengrowth has a large chunk of its 2015 production hedged, which should protect margins and FFO going forward. Furthermore, Pengrowth remains strongly committed to its dividend, and has noted that it would lower capex before lowering the payout. In other words, don't expect a dividend cut anytime soon.
The only hope now is for Gold to get well above $1300 to gain some interest here.. What a brutal day..
I also have to keep in mind that the NatGas glut only exists here in the US.. The global demand for NatGas is HUGE.. So lets get that export going!.. I'm tired of flaring this gift into the atmosphere when the entire world is begging for it..
Decent write up from SA.. Just some key points:
Pengrowth is actually very much a natural gas focused stock. (Exports of NatGas is coming soon)
Lindbergh is projected to generate $26.67 per BBL of cash flows and a 18% IRR. Indeed, WTI would need to hit $33 per BBL for Lindbergh to no longer generate any cash flows.
No large debt is due for years..
ANV needs Gold to go above $1300 just to get investors interested again.. It appears that they couldn't get a JV and they are not interested in a buyout if any as they rather survive by sacrificing shareholder's equity.. Can we go above $1300?.. nit sure but anything is possible.. this has been brutal to say the least..
James Grant, publisher of 'Grant's Interest Rate Observer'.. said Halcon may be a speculative driller with bonds worth buying because it hedged its production at much higher prices enabling it to withstand the current environment..
Pengrowth oil that will be profitable at $50.00 a barrel is heavy oil from Lindbergh (SAGD). Pengrowth's conventional oil has a cost basis slightly above $71.00.
NatGas is a small market with competing energy sources such as nuclear, coal, wind and solar energy.. Besides having a large market and multiple uses for Oil Transportation Fuel is a HUGE market and GROWING with hardly ANY competition.. One example China's middle class is growing in % and that % is still considered small and will continue to grow for many years.. The demand/thirst for Oil is just too damn big to compare it to NatGas.. The oversupply of Oil will work itself out as production cuts have already started..
Sold all my SD at $3.60 when they came out with the accounting issues.. Put half of that into PGH.. SD is in the Miss/L lime formation.. Low production rates and high depletion rates.. the trusts of SD were a red flag they got destroyed and they were extremely overvalued during the IPO.. With SD You earthquakes issues, fracking issues (water contamination), some states are trying to ban fracking and I don't know how that will extend into other areas.. and of course you have a fossil fuel hating administration so I decided to go with PGH..
ruining my dinner.. what a lunatic.. he's all over the place.. wish he would just shut up..
From what a heard Saudi's cash reserves could get completely wiped out in 3 years if Oil stays extremely depressed.. so yes it appears that the Saudi's need a range of 80-90 a barrel to fund their social agenda.. anyone else have an opinion on their cash reserves?
Been adding in small lots, otherwise I would have run out of dry powder a while ago.. Added at $2.51 and will continue to add at any significant drop which apparently is everyday..
It appears that we're experiencing something close to a sub prime crisis, the big difference is that you can walk away from a home but you can't walk away from the huge global demand for Oil..
Too many people using Fast Money as a gauge to invest.. chase the winners and completely discourage companies in the down trend as if they have the plague..
"Advanced batteries + fusion=massively diminished need for oil and gas"
Within ten years will never happen.. JMHO..
Millions of drivers at least here in the US that rely on street parking have no way to charge their car's in a practical and viable way.
There's no battery in the foreseeable future that can move an eighteen wheeler..
Fusion we most likely fad away to power a car..
Dennis Cravens has a crowd-funding campaign to work on a cold fusion-powered car.
He doesn’t expect steam from cold fusion to be able to power the vehicle directly, but electricity generated from the steam would “trickle-charge” a battery to operate the vehicle.
My guess is a 2024 Ford Mustang will be running on regular gasoline..