I think your numbers are a little off. US production will not increase 1.4 million b/d. At most 1 million b/d. Much of the increase in production will be condensate and ultra light oil. The US will need to export this as it can't use all of it.
US demand increased last year and will do so again this year. Trucks and SUV sales are surging.
The oil that was coming to the US is now going to Asia increasing ton miles.
Check out Euronav's latest presentation. They paint the bull picture.
Ha! Funny! I do know what I'm talking about. I'm short from the mid-twenties. GDP in trouble with its banks. It will be in violation of not one, but two bank loan covenants by next quarter. They might be in violation of one right now! I'm shorting this little bounce.
There is no chance that this insolvent company will get back to $30. Their assets are worth much less than their debt and preferred stock. Equity=0
Not rigged, just reality. The financial reports detail what a basket case this company is. It will be out of money in the 4th quarter. It will need to raise over $100mm just to drill a few TMS wells. This at a time that oil prices seem to be heading down. The shale drillers are nothing more than Ponzi schemes relying on new money. That new money will stop and they will collapse.
Once banks start tightening up, it's all over for HK, GDP, Rose and the rest of the shalies. They won't be able to keep paying off their bank debt with more debt.
This drop in oil prices might finally bring some sense to the idiot bankers funding these Ponzi schemes. GDP is going to have a very rough quarter this year when the banks pull in their reins. GDP will have no money to drill! Buh-bye
Yeah, a sale of the newbuilds and of the FRNT stock. Together those pay off the convert. Besides, rates will spike in the fourth quarter. This stock will pop in coming days.
Look at the implied increase in debt prices between the tender announced today and that three months ago. Supermedia has rallied 6% and 16% on RHDI. My guess is that DMW debt is near par.
Spot on, kid. DVN is no dummy. They knew the TMS was junk. HK tried to JV their TMS acres, but everyone passed. This Company will blow through its borrowing base by early 4Q. What then?
They can sell the newbuilds for $130mm bringing in about $90mm net. They can sell their stake in FRNT worth $90 mm. There is your debt pay down. We head into the strongest 6 months seasonally for tankers. You are right, the equity represents a great asymmetric opportunity.
I do actually. I also know that the oil business is full of promoters and that suckers are born every day. I've made quite a bit of money shorting this pig. The numbers don't lie, people do. The TMS is garbage. Maybe at $150/barrel it will work, but not now. Too bad GDP doesn't have any money nor does it make any money.
You should sell. The Company will need to do a big capital raise soon. =dilution. The TMS wells are not economic. They're losing their shirts in the Haynesville. We'll have a big reserve write down again this year. This Company has written off hundreds of millions in "reserves".
This could get ugly for the next few days as headlines of oil glut hit the tape. Money will pull out of energy ETFs. Hedge funds will short. GDP worst of the bunch. Not good for a company that will need to raise money soon.
600K EUR? It should be a crime to say something like that. As with most shale wells, companies are anticipating the wells producing for 30 years. There is no evidence that a shale oil well will produce that long. Shale gas wells have been dying off between years 7 and 10.
Wall Street is waking up to this pump and dump.
Daytraders. There are no real sellers. But there are plenty of real buyers. This thing could be green in a blink of an eye.