"I remain unenthused for SPPI"
You'll probably remain "unenthused" when the NDA is approved... and the next one is filed and accepted... and the next one is about to be filed... and we're making double the revenue and earnings to match. So... what does it take to "enthuse you?" ... Better yet, why are you here? Can't say I'm enthusiastic about you. Your motives are too transparent.
"I've got stocks hitting all-time highs today. When will that occur for SPPI, if at all?"
Next NDA approval should do it. Onward and upward after that with additional approvals/revenue streams.
If gross margin does not change significantly (about 80%) and revenues from existing drugs continue to pay the expenses, the following back-of-the-envelope calculation makes sense (to me):
Each additional $100 million per year in revenue results in about 90 cents additional net profit per share. That is, $1 billion in additional revenue generates about $9 additional net profit per share. So, if SP2012 can generate $1 billion is sales, the share price would be $9 times the PE ratio.
At a share price of $25 and a earnings per share of $9 that PE ratio would be about 2.6 (*~*).
I suspect a lot of people bought stock after the Fusilev debacle in March expecting that F sales would rebound. Now that this has happened that crowd sells for a nice profit.
Good short term trade for them - of course, they miss out on the big payoff later as block buster drugs start to generate revenue.
For as long as I can remember it's always been numbers published before the market opens and a conference call later in the day. Guess the new CFO has different ideas.
Didn't make a six bagger, but about doubled my money. Would have been a double, but bought more in the 7's and that brought up my average share price. Expect to make many times that in the next 2 years. As Ouch said, this one is for the auto pilot now.
Belinostat has already made its endpoints and has a favorable side effect profile. NDA approval is low risk (my opinion of course).
Similarly, Apaziquone went through a prior phase 3 trial and failed. The current trial avoids the mistakes of the earlier one; they now wait for 45 minutes before instilling Apaziqoune into the bladder so that the blood from the preceding surgery can coagulate (Apaziquone does not do well with liquid blood). The odds for approval on this one are good too.
Melphalan... I have no idea, but two out of three is fabulous.
The earnings numbers will likely be released before the market opens that day. It's only the conference call that is after hours.
Reaching your target would be nice. Still, it looks like I'm a lot more optimistic than you are. Guess that's what makes markets :)
So that means an additional $270 million in annual revenue.
So, assuming (way conservatively in my opinion) that Fusilev continues to generate $50 million per year, Zevalin adds $30 million per year and another $270 million materializes as expected, we will have revenue somewhere north of $350 million.
Based on prior financial reports I'm assuming that expenses can be covered with about $160 million of yearly revenue, maybe a little more as revenue and workload grows. That leaves $190 million to acutally generate profits. I'm using $0.90 per share in after tax profit for every $100 million in revenue above break-even (i.e. $160 million). That brings me to expected earnings of $1.71 per share in the not too distant future.
Capitalizing $1.70 per share earnings at a PE ratio of 17 gives a share price of $28.90 (I prefer a PE of 20+ for a fast growing company like Spectrum, so my price target is higher, i.e. $35).
What re your pps expectations for the next 12 - 18 months?
Hi, nice to see you post again.
Recent market action does not suggest and "ugly" earnings report. Anyway, is there actually a delay at this point compared to prior quarters?
On another topic, do you have a (ballpark) revenue future expectation for Folotyn, Marquibo and Belinostat?
My estimates are similar to yours, but not quite:
Z = $8-9 million
M = $1 million
Fol= $14-15 million
Lic = $1 million
Matches yours so far, but
Fus = $20-22 million
For a total of $44-48 million for the 3rd quarter.
Anything within that range for the 3rd and 4th quarters would be sufficient to reach their target range of $160 - $180 for the year. I also anticipate additional growth in Z and Fol sales going forward. Of course, your numbers are prettier than mine and reaching them would be great. Anything below $44 million for the quarter would be disappointing indeed.
All it would take is third quarter Fusilev revenue at levels predicted by Ken Keller ($20 - 25 million). If that happens, we'll be back to pre March levels very quickly. We'll know soon.