Hedge funds raised bullish gold wagers to a three-month high as signs of slowing U.S. economic growth spurred demand for haven assets. Billionaire John Paulson maintained his bullion holdings last quarter.
The net-long position climbed 17 percent to 69,291 futures and options in the week ended Feb. 11, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Long wagers rose 8.8 percent, the most since March. Net-bullish holdings across 18 U.S.-traded commodities rose 18 percent to 1.07 million contracts, the highest since October 2012, led by silver and coffee.
Investors’ return to gold after the bear market in 2013 is driving prices to the longest rally since 2011. U.S. factory output unexpectedly fell in January, and emerging-market equities and currencies weakened. Paulson, the biggest owner of the largest exchange-traded product backed by the metal, left his holdings unchanged in the fourth quarter, a government filing showed. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Barclays Plc say the rebound will falter.
If the momentum of metal prices continues I'm anticipating Goldman Sachs to change there tune and become bullish on gold. The caveat being Goldman would reason it to problems in the over all economy, which IMO would add to gold's momentum.
silver price has a much larger influence then gold due to EG2 profile. Also, they are presently trying to reduce the intial capex...considering those two factors.. im thinking not now but soon...my guess 4th quarter...we shall see
execution is the name of the game and like pulp said, mux is lining up the ducks in spite of the challenges. I consider EG2 a much larger duck that is presently on the runway...silver price has to pick up a little more speed before we consider advancing it...
W DELHI—India is likely to cut its import tax on gold before the end of February to between 6% and 8% from the current level of 10%, a senior government official said Wednesday.
It is likely they will also start rolling back other restrictions starting after the elections in June.
To me this is big news and will have a impact
Nelson, .... costs should go down with a weaker exchange rate but the rapid rate of devaluation of peso will cause a more rapid inflationary movement as well.
Costs should get cheaper in near term but will get back to previous levels within a short time and cost may actually increase if inflation gets ahead of the devaluation rate. A likely scenario is that costs should go back to their previous levels once inflation intensifies and the peso looks like it should continue to rapidly depreciate for the next 6-12 months until it catches the blue market rate.
This is what im betting on... cristina will leave office in 2015...A new business friendly govt will be in place with Sergio Massa as new president....The country wiil then default..which will then open up the country for foreign investment by making the rules more relaxed...Even without a default it is likely new govt will be much more business friendly...There are sideline investors just waiting for Argentina to hit the sinkhole
The big changes coming to Argentina should be approached with caution but the odds are high it will benefit the miners significantly especially for those constructing a mine and explorers (remember mux exploring deal with HOC). Mux will get MUCH MORE interest for Los Azules as well
with a default (which is likely) it could be a good time to make strategic decisions but a difficult time within which to operate...Lets hope no default but even it occurrs it can benefit miners there in many ways.
what I meant to say.. was a rising equity and gold market can not CO-exist. Its either one or the other.. many of my posts are coming from my phone, which tends to be a little more challenging
Honcho, my point was this in 2013 they down graded gold because they eere forcasting a robust economy...by upgrading a gold forcast they are simply also saying that is not happening
At this point a bullish equity and gold market will not exist. Its either we make it big time in a relatively short amount of time or we resume being in a sinkhole for a extended amount of time. Im anticipating goldman sachs to revert and announce a mor favorable outlook for gold this year and help our cause if gold momentum continues
wonder which one is more overbought, SP 500, the dollar or gold...
If you want tools to guide you I would look at moving averages of gold and use it in conjuncture with some Mux TA. That's the closest to a pattern I can see. Nothing is guaranteed especially is this market. The bear market in 2013 started with outflows of ETF , intiated by George Soros, then came goldman sacks warning of lower gold prices and told everyone to get out. Well, we may see the reverse happening soon. We are seeing ETF growing again, gold prices rising and if goldman sachs wants some respect back they will probably reverse course and announce a buy for gold real soon...that would probably light another fire underneath gold
is adding to the shorts misery. Bought some Paas and GG earlier last week knowing anything connected to silver and argentina is bound to rise. Again, you must be on board before you can benefit to the fullest extent. They will not make this easy money for those jumping in as metal prices rises. Momentum has a life of its own...India elections is coming up, they will no doubt be a easing of restrictions of gold imports, but a total lifting is almost a certainty sometime after the elections, understand that before it actually occurs and what it means to demand especially if China eases off purchases because of rising expense of gold
Wow. Cant believe the action today...the sentiment no doubt has now shifted towards our way...if shorts sell their is a buyer at the other end....having less shorts motivates hedgefunds to buy back into the sector...
day traders have already taken a hit selling at yesterdays highs. Why gamble at this point...let the shorts sweat this one out....enjoy the bumpy ride up..
Indian Deficit Raised Optimism About Reducing Gold Restrictions
Tuesday February 11, 2014 3:42 PM
India’s trade deficit narrowed, raising optimism that authorities may relax bullion-import restrictions, which would be supportive for gold, says HSBC. India’s trade deficit narrowed to $9.92 billion in January from $10.15 billion in December. The ministry said that the combination of a 77% drop in the import of gold and silver and an increase in exports helped improve the outlook for the country’s current-account balance. “India’s gold imports have been lackluster since the Reserve Bank of India tightened its restriction to bullion trade, citing gold as the cause for the country’s ballooning current account deficit,” HSBC says. “In mid-2013, the RBI announced the 80-20 rule which required importers to set aside 20% of imported gold for the purpose of exports in the form of jewelry. According to Reuters, the trade ministry has recommended an easing of the curbs placed on gold imports given the rosier trade balance. If the authorities are less concerned with the economic ramification of a lower trade and current-account deficit, then it is possible that India’s trade restrictions on gold imports will eventually be tempered or the tariff reduced, (and) then the increase in demand would be bullish for gold, in our view.”